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Late this afternoon I appeared again on Silvio Canto Jr.'s excellent radio show, which comes out of Dallas.  If you're interested in listening, the link is here.

FRIDAY,  MAY 7,  2010

THE MESS ON WALL STREET – AT 8:55 P.M. ET:  The standard line going around New York has been that, while the recession isn't over for the nation, it's over for Wall Street, and times are flying again.  Uh, not so fast, Jones.  From the Washington Post:

The carnage of the last two days of this week has wiped out all the gains of the year to date.

If Thursday's trading day was apocalyptic, Friday's was merely chaotic and unpredictable. Stocks opened up slightly, following a better-than-expected April jobs report, then fell immediately off the cliff, plunging to a 10:30 a.m. trough.

They spent the rest of mid-day trying to climb back up and the Dow briefly turned positive before the recovery rally ran out of steam and stocks eventually stabilize, albeit in negative territory.

The Dow closed down 1.3 percent at 10,379.60. Bye-bye, 11,000.

The broader S&P 500 closed down 1.5 percent at 1,110.86 and the tech-heavy Nadaq got hit the hardest, closing down 2.2 percent at 2,265.64.

All three major indexes have had their entire 2010 gains wiped out. Today, they stand almost exactly where they stood on January 1. So that's discouraging.

COMMENT:  Yeah, I'd say so.  But maybe it's healthy that the Wall Street economy and the real economy mesh a little. 

We're far from out of the woods, especially as the Obama administration seems determined to spend us into bankruptcy.  While jobs were added last month, more job seekers entered the force, pushing the unemployment rate up to just under 10 percent.  That's not a number the White House wants to take into the midterm elections.

May 7, 2010     Permalink

THIS DOESN'T CUT IT – AT 7:43 P.M. ET:  I admire General David Petraeus a great deal, but he's developed a case of foot-in-mouth disease that requires immediate treatment.  He's being talked about as a presidential candidate, although he adamantly denies that ambition.  If he continues to make verbal gaffes, denial will not be necessary.

Earlier this year, Petraeus, in testimony before Congress, made some statements about the Mideast that had to be "explained" and reinterpreted, by him.  Now he makes the oddest comment about the Times Square bomber:

Gen. David Petraeus says the Times Square bombing suspect is a "lone wolf" terrorist who did not work with others.

The general who oversees the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan tells The Associated Press that alleged bomber Faisal Shahzad was inspired by militants in Pakistan, but didn't have direct contact with them.

Authorities say Shahzad told investigators he went to a terror training camp in Pakistan, but they have yet to confirm that.

Petraeus's statement appears to be absurd.  How would he know, this early in the investigation?  Shahzad spent months in Pakistan.  The press is reporting that the FBI is looking for a financial courier who supplied him with funds to buy the bomb car, as Shahzad was not in a position to make a cash contribution to the cause. 

And Petraeus is telling us he was a lone wolf.  It doesn't compute.  Sounds like something said off the cuff, the kind of capital crime you can't commit as a presidential candidate.

We wait for the clarification. 

May 7, 2010    Permalink

PLANET IRAN – AT 7:15 P.M. ET:  I was at a meeting today on behalf of Planet Iran, the dynamic and absolutely essential new site devoted to news coming out of Iran. It was a fundraiser, and Planet Iran is definitely worth a contribution.  It is, right now, our best source of information about what's actually happening in a critically important country.

Michael Ledeen, a superlative expert on Iran, and Jim Woolsey, former director of Central Intelligence, spoke.  Both men seemed genuinely and substantially frustrated by the path the Obamans are taking in their "outreach" to or "engagement" with Iran.

Ledeen made the point that the last year and three months have been wasted by the illusion that we can negotiate with the regime now in power.  He asked a blunt question:  "What part of 'Death to America' does Washington not understand?"  He also recalled that the same lack of understanding about the nature of the regime that existed during the Carter administration, some 30 years ago, exists today. 

Both Ledeen and Woolsey likened the West's attitude toward Iran to the free nations' attitude toward Nazi Germany before World War II.  One accommodation after another.  Woolsey noted, to applause, that to get from Munich in 1938 to victory in 1945, we first had to get from Neville Chamberlain to Winston Churchill.  In other words, policy will be determined by the kind of people we put in power.  That was not a compliment toward this president. 

There wasn't much optimism in the room.  Ledeen and Woolsey believe that our only option, short of a military strike on Iran, is trying to do everything possible to foster regime change.  But both men noted that the West hasn't lifted a finger in that direction. 

The crowd around Obama includes retreads from the Carter days.  And they haven't altered their views a bit. 

Unless there's a dramatic change of direction, we'll have a nuclear Iran, with all that implies.  In the meantime, our stalwart administration is going along with international efforts to equate the Israeli nuclear program with the Iranian one, apparently to appease the Iranians further.  That is the worst kind of moral equivalence – the murderer is as good as his intended victim – but it's the mindset in the ultra-liberal, all cultures are equal, Obama administration.

May 7, 2010    Permalink

IS THIS THE BEST WE CAN DO? – AT 8:47 A.M. ET:  President Obama is apparently ready to announce his Supreme Court choice.  But we must label this as informed speculation.  From The Politico:

Look for President Obama to name his Supreme Court pick Monday, and look for it to be Solicitor General Elena Kagan, a former Harvard Law dean. The pick isn’t official, but top White House aides will be shocked if it’s otherwise. Kagan’s relative youth (50) is a huge asset for the lifetime post. And President Obama considers her to be a persuasive, fearless advocate who would serve as an intellectual counterweight to Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Scalia, and could lure swing Justice Kennedy into some coalitions The West Wing may leak the pick to AP’s Ben Feller on the later side Sunday, then confirm it for others for morning editions. For now, aides say POTUS hasn’t decided, to their knowledge.

COMMENT:  Well, we'll see.  I think it would be a poor choice.  It would mean 1) that every member of the Court has an Ivy League background, 2) that the Court would have no Protestants, 3) that the president will have named the dean of the law school he attended, raising uncomfortable suggestions of old school ties and 4) Kagan's experience is mostly academic.

It's a delicate issue, but it must be noted, that Kagan is apparently gay, and the notion of a political payoff to the gay community will also be whispered if she's chosen.

By all accounts, Kagan is a fine, intelligent woman who was respected as dean at Harvard Law.  But she's part of the same old crowd. 

May 7, 2010     Permalink

THIS IS SHOCKING – AT 8:21 A.M. ET:  You must read this becsause it is so entirely different from anything we could have expected.  I am joking.  From Fox:

Times Square bomb plot suspect Faisal Shahzad is a “fan and follower" of a radical American-born cleric linked to the Fort Hood attack in November and the attempted jet bombing on Christmas Day, sources tell Fox News.

Shahzad is a fan of Anwar al-Awlaki's CDs, which promote the cleric's extremist Muslim ideology, sources say, however, there is no known evidence yet that that Shahzad had direct contact with Awlaki, such as through e-mails.

Awlaki, who is under a kill-or-capture order by the U.S. government and believed to be hiding in Yemen, is now linked to the last three terrorist plots designed to kill Americans at home.

COMMENT:  You mean the Times Square guy wasn't a tea partier?  But I thought...

Compare what's coming out now with the absurd, early statements by government officials, including the allegedly smart mayor of New York.  They were rambling on about anti-government types, haters of Obamacare, disgruntled this and thats.  The words "Islamic extremism" found difficulty passing through their tight little lips.

We are fighting a war, and the people in charge can't seem to name the enemy.  Imagine if, during World War II, FDR referred to the Japanese as "militant Easterners" or to the Nazis as "disaffected cultural cousins." 

Our colleges have done quite a job in introducing our elites to disciplined thinking, haven't they?

May 7, 2010     Permalink

FAITH IN OBAMA WEAKENS – AT 8:05 A.M. ET:  Britain isn't the only country where confidence in governmental institutions seems weak.  A new survey reported by the Hotline shows that Americans aren't sleeping that soundly either:

As trust in national institutions falls, so has Obama's approval rating. Just 48% approve of the job Obama is doing, while 46% disapprove, the poll shows. That's down from a 61% approval rating Obama sported in an Allstate/National Journal poll conducted in April '09.

Voters have lost faith in Obama to craft solutions to the country's economic challenges. Just 39% say they trust Obama more than GOPers in Congress, while 32% say they believe the GOP has the right ideas. That 7-point gap is down from a 29-point Obama advantage in the April '09 poll.

Only 39% of voters said they would vote to re-elect Pres. Obama if the election were held today, while 50% say they would vote for someone else. A quarter of voters would definitely vote to re-elect Obama, while 37% would definitely vote for someone else.

COMMENT:  Apparently, there isn't enough change we can believe in.  This is only after a year and three months in office.  And the economic crisis in the European Union hasn't even reached these shores, or our bank accounts, yet. 

Republicans have a great shot, if they can prove to Americans that they can govern.  With six months to the midterms, they still haven't come up with a coherent program.

May 7, 2010    Permalink

MOTHER SEEMS CONFUSED – AT 7:48 A.M. ET:  The mother country voted yesterday, and the result, as polls suggested, is a hung Parliament. 

Conservatives well ahead, but without a majority; labor second; the liberal Dems, who hoped for a miracle; well behind, and deservedly so.

What happens now.  Well, according to some Parliament experts, the party in power, by tradition, not law, should get the first shot at assembling a coalition government.  But the conservatives are mounting a battle, saying "We're number one."  The Times of London:

David Cameron announced today that he intended to press ahead and form a government even though the Tories failed to secure a majority in yesterday's general election.

The Conservatives said that Mr Cameron would make a statement at 2.30pm spelling out how he will try to form an administration which is "strong and stable with broad support, that acts in the national interest".

The announcement follows the declaration by Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat leader, that he believed the Mr Cameron had gained "first right" to attempt to form a government because his party had won both the most votes and the most seats.

Mr Cameron's decision to go public even before the full election results are in challenges the constitutional convention under which Gordon Brown, as Prime Minister, has the right to try to form a government.

Sounds like a mess, and it is.  And it shows the problems with proportional representation.  Our two-party affair is more stable.

Some are suggesting that the only thing this can lead to is another election, sooner rather than later:

Any government formed in the next few days will not be able to command a stable or overall majority in the Commons. So the new Parliament is unlikely to last more than a year or so. A second general election is probable either later this year or in the spring of 2011.

Everything else is uncertain.

The only way out, a Conservative/Lib Dem coalition, looks highly unlikely because of Tory opposition to electoral reform.

As politician after politician said overnight, the public has spoken, but it is not clear what they have said.

COMMENT:  Given the muddle that Barack Obama has made of British-American relations, our influence here seems decidedly limited.  The "special relationship" needs work, on both sides of the pond. 

It's a wait-and-see situation.  So we'll wait and see.  Things should be clearer in a few days.  The Queen waits for an answer.

May 7, 2010    Permalink 

THURSDAY,  MAY 6,  2010

TOUGH FIGHT IN FLORIDA – AT 8:17 P.M. ET:  A new poll confirms that the Senate race in Florida has been thrown into turmoil by Republican Governor Charlie Crist's decision to drop out of the GOP primary and go indy.  From RealClearPolitics:

A new Mason Dixon poll conducted in Florida (625 LVs, 5/3-10, MoE +/- 4%) shows Gov. Charlie Crist leading a three-way race for Senate, with Marco Rubio just behind and Rep. Kendrick Meek a distant third.

General Election Matchup
Crist (I) 38
Rubio (R) 32
Meek (D) 19

The pollster suspects, however, that Crist's lead is very soft, and that Meek stands to make up serious ground as he improves name recognition and as Democrats come home.

COMMENT:  I'm still optimistic that Rubio will pull it out, as some of Crist's support is coming from Democrats who will probably, as the story indicates, drift back to their party as the election approaches.

But this will be a race for turnout.  Rubio's supporters are the most enthusiastic, and that enthusiasm has to be turned into real, warm bodies going to the polls – unlike Chicago, where many of the bodies showing up to vote haven't been warm for years.

May 6, 2010     Permalink

JUSTICE IS DONE – AT 8:03 P.M. ET:  The third and last Navy Seal facing abuse charges in the arrest of a major Iraqi terrorist has been found not guilty at a Norfolk court-martial.  From Fox:

A Virginia military jury found a Navy SEAL not guilty Thursday on all charges he punched an Iraqi suspected in the 2004 killings of four U.S. contractors in Fallujah.

"I'm really happy right now," Matthew McCabe, the Navy SEAL, told Fox News shortly after hearing the outcome of the court martial. "It's an amazing feeling. I'm on cloud nine right now."

McCabe, a special operations petty officer second class, called the proceedings "troubling at times," adding "having your career on the line is not an easy thing to handle."

McCabe was the third and final Navy SEAL to be prosecuted in the case. He had faced charges of assault, making a false official statement and dereliction of performance of duty for willfully failing to safeguard a detainee. McCabe was accused of punching last year Ahmed Hashim Abed, the suspected mastermind of the grisly killings six years ago.

After the court martial, the 24-year-old from Perrysburg, Ohio, thanked the public for its continued support.

COMMENT:  A waste of the jury's time.

May 6, 2010    Permalink

BRITS DECIDE – AT 7:52 P.M. ET:  Britain has voted.  Exit polls show a conservative victory, but not a majority of Parliament.  In other words, a hung Parliament.

Exit polls at this hour are showing 305 seats for the Tories, 255 for Labour, 61 for the Liberal Dems, and 29 for others.  This is where the beauty of the two-party system shows up. 

The Tories would need about 20 votes more in Parliament to have their majority.  The question is whether they can get that number from the smaller parties, without having to make a deal with Labour, or, more dreadful, the nutty Liberal Dems.

More coming on this.

May 6, 2010   Permalink

QUOTE OF THE DAY – AT 9:50 A.M. ET:  From Fred Barnes at the Wall Street Journal, on Obama's contempt for public opinion:

President Reagan had a sign on his desk that said, "It's amazing how much you can accomplish if you don't care who gets the credit." If President Obama had a sign, it would say, "It's amazing how much you can accomplish if you don't care what the public thinks."

Washington has never been held in lower esteem by Americans than it is today. Yet those in control of Washington—President Obama and congressional Democrats—are bent on enacting a series of sweeping domestic policy changes this year that have one thing in common: They are unpopular, in whole or in part.

This is unprecedented and a bit weird too. A revival of civility and an end to the ugly political polarization in Washington—goals stressed by Mr. Obama in his presidential campaign and again last Saturday in a speech at the University of Michigan—won't be furthered by passage of an unpopular agenda. A more likely result is years of partisan resentment and bitter fighting over efforts by Republicans to repeal the unwanted policies.

COMMENT:  Absolutely true.  The Dems know they have only from now to election day in November to get through their program.  That's six months.  After that, a coalition of Republicans and I-want-to-survive Democrats will probably make it impossible to enact most of the liberal agenda, a phenomenon that also occurred after the 1938 midterms, hampering enactment of FDR's domestic program.

May 6, 2010     Permalink

SAY WHAT?  WILL SOMEONE TELL BIDEN – AT 9:19 A.M. ET:  The sentiment is admirable, but will someone tell Joe Biden that it's already been undermined by The One, who is all-knowing and all-pure? 

BRUSSELS (AP) -- U.S. Vice President Joe Biden said Thursday that Washington remains determined to deploy its planned anti-missile system in Europe to counter the danger of Iran's nuclear program and its long-range ballistic missiles.

''The United States and European Union have stood side-by-side to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons,'' Biden told the European Parliament. ''Iran's nuclear program violates its obligations under NPT and risks sparking a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.'' The NPT is the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Now wait, Joe, wait.  Wasn't there a bit of bother about this last year?

The Obama administration last year scrapped Bush-era plans for an expensive missile defense network based in Poland and the Czech Republic. It replaced them with a more flexible plan to deploy Patriot air defense missiles in several countries in eastern Europe and on ships in the Black Sea and Mediterranean.

Yeah, and that move undercut allies in Eastern Europe who'd taken the risk of defying the Russians over missile defense.  Joe, read the papers.

The original plan strained ties between the United States and Russia, which saw it as directed against its own ballistic missiles. Russia has been somewhat more receptive of the new program, although it still maintains there is no need for it at present.

''Wouldn't it be ironic, as the Iron Curtain fell and the threats of mutual assured destruction diminished among the superpowers, a new arms race would emerge in some of the most unstable parts of the world,'' Biden said.

Already has.  Maybe you're reading the wrong papers.

May 6, 2010     Permalink

A CONSPIRACY SO VAST – AT 8:58 A.M. ET:  I'm always amused by the near-McCarthyite tone of many liberals, and their journalistic cousins, when describing Republican strategy.  You'd think it was some kind of sin to plan for conservative victory. 

The headline on a Politico story today reads:

Karl Rove, Republican Party secretly plot vast network to reclaim power

Ah, a conspiracy so vast, and probably plotted from some foreign capital, like San Diego. 

And the story is breathless.  Get set for a bombshell, folks:

The Republican Party’s best-connected political operatives have quietly built a massive fundraising, organizing and advertising machine based on the model assembled by Democrats early in the decade, and with the same ambitious goal — to recapture Congress and the White House.

What a bunch of thugs!  The Republic totters!

The new groups could give Republicans and their allies a powerful campaign apparatus separate from the Republican National Committee. Karl Rove, political architect of the Bush presidency, and Ed Gillespie, former Republican Party chairman, are the most prominent forces behind what is, in effect, a network of five overlapping groups, three of which were started in the past few months.

I'm glad this is being exposed to the public – politicians planning a political campaign.  Why, those subversive degenerates!

The operating assumption of Rove, Gillespie and the other organizers is that despite the historical dominance of Republican fundraising and organizing, the GOP has been outmaneuvered by Democrats and their allies in recent years, and it is time to strike back.

Sure.  Strike back.  Another call to violence.  Do you hear "tea party"?  I hear it. 

And to think, we were worried about Communism.

May 6, 2010     Permalink

BRITAIN VOTES – AT 8:35 A.M. ET:  The mother country votes today, as her former colonies watch in anticipation.  Last-minute polls still favor the conservatives, but not by enough to prevent a hung Parliament.  The Times of London reports:

A string of election-eve opinion polls gave Mr Cameron's Conservatives a clear lead over Labour and the Liberal Democrats but suggested that they could fall tantalisingly short of an overall majority and would have to form some kind of minority administration.

A Populus poll for The Times put the Tories on 37 per cent with Labour on 28 and the Lib Dems on 27, representing a 6-point swing to the Conservatives. Given the number of three-way contests, the pollsters face an almost impossible task projecting final results but the Populus figures point to the Tories winning an extra 91 seats but falling 25 seats short of a majority.

After a frenetic final 48 hours of campaigning, which saw them criss-cross the country in a whirlwind of rallies and constituency visits, all three main party leaders last night issued appeals to activists to help get the vote out today.

Mr Cameron told cheering supporters in Bristol that it was time for the Tories to “win for Britain”, urging them: “Vote for change. Vote Conservative. Vote to give this country the hope, the optimism and the change we need. Together, we can build a better, stronger country.”

COMMENT:  Britain is a bit unstable right now.  Its economy is debt-ridden and it may go the Greek route if things don't improve.  But I guess it's better than being blitzed by the Nazis.

We'll follow the returns closely today and report.  If Cameron emerges as prime minister, but with a Parliamentary minority, I would hope he'd avoid a coalition with either Labour or the certifiable Liberal Dems, and pick up some of the smaller groups to gain a majority. 

May 6, 2010    Permalink

THIS JUST IN – AT 8:20 A.M. ET:  Boston may go to war with Arizona.  Stand by for details and war news.  From Fox:

BOSTON - The Boston City Council is scheduled to vote on a resolution calling for the city to pull investments from Arizona in protest over the state's recently passed immigration law.

The vote is slated for Wednesday afternoon.

City Council President Michael Ross and fellow Councilor Felix G. Arroyo said their resolution would ask city officials to end city contracts and purchasing agreements with Arizona and Arizona-based companies. The resolution also would ask city employees not to travel to Arizona for city business.

Councilors have reported a slew of angry calls over the resolution after area conservative talk radio shows urged listners to call councilors.

COMMENT:  Have you noticed?  A lot of leftist Americans are moving far more quicly with sanctions against Arizona than they ever did with sanctions against Iran.

Do we have our priorities in order?

When you see posters depicting a Boston-created mushroom cloud over Phoenix, you'll know we've taken complete leave of our senses.

May 6, 2010    Permalink