TOUGH FIGHT IN FLORIDA – AT 8:17 P.M. ET:  A new poll confirms that the Senate race in Florida has been thrown into turmoil by Republican Governor Charlie Crist's decision to drop out of the GOP primary and go indy.  From RealClearPolitics:

A new Mason Dixon poll conducted in Florida (625 LVs, 5/3-10, MoE +/- 4%) shows Gov. Charlie Crist leading a three-way race for Senate, with Marco Rubio just behind and Rep. Kendrick Meek a distant third.

General Election Matchup
Crist (I) 38
Rubio (R) 32
Meek (D) 19

The pollster suspects, however, that Crist's lead is very soft, and that Meek stands to make up serious ground as he improves name recognition and as Democrats come home.

COMMENT:  I'm still optimistic that Rubio will pull it out, as some of Crist's support is coming from Democrats who will probably, as the story indicates, drift back to their party as the election approaches.

But this will be a race for turnout.  Rubio's supporters are the most enthusiastic, and that enthusiasm has to be turned into real, warm bodies going to the polls – unlike Chicago, where many of the bodies showing up to vote haven't been warm for years.

May 6, 2010