William Katz:  Urgent Agenda

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ANOTHER WARNING FOR RON:  The excellent Florida governor is having unexpected difficulty drumming up popular support.  From Conservative Treehouse: 

This poll seems to align with the previous forecast predictions.  Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has spent a great deal of time in South Carolina over the past two weeks.  The result, he’s dropped from second to third place.  The more voters get to see DeSantis, the lower his in-state polling becomes.

DISCLAIMER – South Carolina is an open primary, vulnerable to Big Club shenanigans.

President Trump has a clear lead in the Palmetto state at 48% according to the latest Fox (Shaw Research) poll.   Nikki Haley has entered first loser position at 14%, followed closely by Ron DeSantis at 13% and Tim Scott at 10%.

Candidate I Don’t Know (4%) is now ahead of Mike Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy, Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson. While Gas Station Sushi is polling ahead of Doug Burgum, Larry Elder, Will Hurd and Francis Suarez

At 48%, President Donald Trump is 16 points higher in the polls than he was when he won the South Carolina primary in 2016.

NATIONAL OUTLOOK – The latest Harvard Harris national poll shows Donald Trump beating Joe Biden 45% to 39%, which includes President Trump holding a massive 18-point advantage with independent voters 45% to 27%.

COMMENT:  A number of political journalists are now, rather conspicuously, turning their attention from DeSantis to other candidates, who might or might not score a breakthrough.  Many eyes are on Tim Scott, the African-American senator from South Carolina, one of the most attractive of the GOP contenders. 

Much depends on the political condition of Donald Trump, and whether it changes with his legal winds.  More legal challenges are coming.  The piling on has begun.  And much also depends on the medical condition of Joe Biden.  We are not sure that he will be the nominee.

In a few months, all this speculating will be ancient history.  Right now it's fun.  But things are not good in the United States, and the fun could descend into bitterness very quickly.

July 24,  2023