We've reached 82 percent of our goal in our second subscription drive.  Your subscriptions and donations are deeply appreciated.  But we're behind today, and we must achieve the other 18 percent to help secure a bright future for Urgent Agenda.

It is imperative, especially if we go into political opposition, to have a strong subscriber base.  Otherwise, we cannot maintain the service in the way that you wish it.

In two weeks we will probably have a President-elect Obama and heavy Democratic majorities in Congress.   

So please subscribe today in the right-hand column.  We want Urgent Agenda to be your online home as we fight for our principles.  Please read the following notice and do subscribe.

TO OUR READERS

Our second subscription drive is on.  Subscriptions are absolutely critical to the survival of Urgent Agenda.  If you like what you see, and our readership growth shows that you do, please subscribe in the column on the right. 

Consider:  A week of Urgent Agenda costs less than a candy bar.  That's right - a week for less than a Milky Way.  We think that's an awfully good deal.

Our main page will always be free.  Subscribers support it because they want to guarantee that it exists at all, and maintains its standards.  But now, new and current subscribers (and donators) will get special benefits.  We will be offering what amounts to an extra day of Urgent Agenda, additional audio reports, and a special e-mail address for subscribers to write to us and make their feelings known.  The "extra day" will be drawn from the research done for Urgent Agenda, and will include subjects we don't cover on the main site.  Special subscriber benefits will be launched soon after the election.

If for any reason you wish to cancel your subscription, the unused portion will be returned to you, upon request. 

On election day, if current trends continue, we will become part of the loyal opposition.  If trends reverse, we will be an honest gadfly to a McCain presidency. 

A voice like Urgent Agenda is needed now, more than ever.  Only you can guarantee that this voice will continue to be heard as we enter very uncertain times. 

We must be a subscription-based service.  Please become a subscriber, and join a very special, self-selected group.

---------------------------------------------------

SNIPPETS, our daily collection of short items and comments, is here.

--------------------------------------------- 

Answers to last week's "Current Question" are here. The new "Current Question" is here, in the right-hand column.

----------------------------------------------------

TO LISTEN TO OUR AUDIO COMMENTARIES, GO HERE.  AUDIO CLIPS ARE POSTED SEVERAL TIMES A WEEK.

(Here is my audio commentary:  "Will there be a second Cuban Missile Crisis?")

We are working on podcasts.

----------------------------------------------------------

I'm somewhat behind on e-mails because so many readers are writing in (good!).  I'm trying to catch up this weekend.  I try, whenever possible, to answer each message that requires a reply.

SATURDAY,  OCTOBER 25,  2008

NOTE AT 7:06 P.M. ET:  This is wonderful.  It's by way of Lisa Schiffren at NRO:

So, Sarah Palin's advisors decide that it is time for her to meet a bunch of serious world leaders. They head to Europe, where, first up, she has an appointment with the Pope. The Pope and some of his Cardinals invite her for a boat ride on the Tiber. As they are sitting in the gondola talking, a wind starts up and blows the Pope's hat into the water. Palin looks around and realizes that no one is going to do anything about it, so she calmy rises, takes off her her high heels, and steps off the side of the boat. Instead of diving into the water, however, she walks across it, to the hat, picks it up and walks back across the water to the boat. She climbs in, hands the Pope his hat and continues discussing whatever it was they had been talking about. The Cardinals are open mouthed in astonishment at what they have just seen. The news media, in nearby boats are busy discussing among themselves how to report it. Headlines the next day at the New York Times, The Washington Post and the networks all blare: "New Revelation: Sarah Palin Can't Swim."

Then they'd question whether the swimming credit on her high-school transcript is valid.  Major investigation. 

UPDATE AT 6:43 P.M. ET:  IBD/TIPP trackers has Obama up four, same as yesterday.  We don't know which polls, if any, are accurate.  If Obama's lead is only four, it's doable for McCain.  If it's 14, that's another story.  It's such a mysterious year, with so many variables.

UPDATE AT 3:30 P.M. ET:  Several media outlets, in the U.S. and in the Middle East, are reporting that President Bush will restore diplomatic relations with Iran after 29 years of non-relations.  He will wait until after the election, according to these reports.

COMMENT:  This is in response to Iranian cooperation in...?  The problems with this move are that 1) it would confirm the dominance of the State Department and the Bush 41 crowd in the last years of the Bush 43 presidency, 2) it rewards Iran for its utter obstinacy, especially on the nuclear issue, and, most important, 3) it effectively takes the military option off the table.  We can't very well use military force when our diplomats will either be killed or taken hostage.  We recall the Iran hostage crisis of 1979-80-81.  Nothing has been officially announced.  We will wait, with some concern over whether this is some kind of wise strategic move, or another try by Condi for a "legacy."  Never underestimate the role of the personal and the egotistical in political affairs. 

UPDATE AT 3:05 P.M. ET:  You don't believe in political miracles, you say?  Well, try this one on:  The rigidly liberal Minneapolis Star-Tribune, legendarily out in left field, is endorsing Republican Senator Norm Coleman for reelection over comedian Al Franken, the Democrat.  You can read the endorsement here.  Sometimes people just surprise us.  Congratulations to the Strib for a splendid decision.

UPDATE AT 2:46 P.M. ET:  The polling news is not presented with pleasure.  Using its traditional measurements, Gallup gives Obama a seven-point lead.  Using its expanded model, the lead is eight points.  The figures were five and seven yesterday.  Hotline has Obama up seven, same as yesterday. 

COMMENT:  There is just no evidence of the race tightening, as it normally does as election day approaches.  But there are ten days left, a lifetime in politics.  McCain could probably not have had worse conditions for a political campaign, and worse behavior from the press.  Let's cheer the man on. 
 

NOTE AT 9:43 A.M. ET:   From The Hollywood Reporter:   As campaign managers for Sarah Palin plot last-minute tactics to get her elected, Hollywood bigwigs are convening strategy sessions of their own. Their goal: finding the ideal on-air vehicle for the vp candidate if and when she exits politics.  Love her or hate her -- there doesn't seem to be much middle ground with Palin -- the 44-year-old hockey mom has captured the public imagination in a way no politician has since, well, Barack Obama.

COMMENT:  I wouldn't underestimate this, and it doesn't have to wait until she leaves politics.  A sitting governor, a national figure, with her own talk or news show, could give her an incredible platform...and she has a built-in audience.  Why not?

UPDATE AT 9:35 A.M. ET:  Rasmussen, just out, has Obama up eight, 52-44, a gain of one since yesterday.  This matches Obama's biggest previous lead of the year.   

OBAMA DANGER

Posted at 8:31 a.m. ET

I've noticed an increasing number of very thoughtful pieces warning of the danger of an Obama presidency.  As the days dwindle down to the election, there does seem to be a growing number of writers trying to reach the American people with a picture of what life will be like in the age of Obama.  One of the best of these writers is Mark Moyar.  You might not know the name.  Moyar is a distinguished American historian whose career has been short-circuited by his refusal to toe the approved line on Vietnam.  The first volume of his history of that war is out, titled "Triumph Forsaken:  The Vietnam War, 1954-1965."  The title tells you why Moyar, a Harvard graduate and Cambridge Ph.D., is anathema to our academic class. 

Writing in NRO, Moyar says:

His name was Jimmy Carter, the year was 1976, and he won. His presidency helps us predict the likely results of an Obama victory in 2008.

Chilled already?

Carter and the Democratic Congress generated 18 percent inflation and economic stagnation at the same time. Unemployment rose. Americans came to regret the votes they had cast — Carter’s approval rating sank to 21 percent in 1980, the lowest in the history of polling.

Carter also threw out his professed hawkishness on foreign policy. Declaring America liberated from its “inordinate fear of Communism,” he sought better relations with the Communists in the Soviet Union, China, Cuba, and Vietnam. He was much less nice to America’s allies, withdrawing support from those who did not accept his self-righteous demands for human-rights reforms. Friendly regimes in Nicaragua and Iran fell to hostile tyrants.

Ah yes, I remember it well.

If Obama abandons his promises the way Carter did, his presidency will be even more dangerous. Carter at least had longstanding tendencies toward fiscal restraint, and he, together with a large block of conservative Democrats in Congress, prevented the most left-wing elements of Congress from taxing and spending even more. Obama, on the other hand, has himself been part of the most left-wing element in the U.S. Senate, and conservatives do not have a significant presence on the Democratic side of the Reid-Pelosi Congress. Also, Obama has no history of breaking with his party before this year.

And...

There are reasons to believe Obama will indeed break his promises. In March, he told the American public he would force Canada and Mexico to make concessions on NAFTA. Obama’s senior economic adviser privately assured Canadian officials that Obama’s public promises were “more reflective of political maneuvering than policy.”

Nice, huh?  And there's more:

In the second presidential debate, Obama made the most flagrant of his bogus promises yet, when he announced a “net spending cut.” The National Taxpayers Union has estimated that Obama will actually produce a net spending increase of at least $292 billion per year.

And...

Also during the third debate, Obama distanced himself from ACORN, denying any involvement with this organization since 1995. But as Sen. McCain pointed out, the Obama campaign paid $832,000 to an ACORN subsidiary earlier this year.

The worst part:

Perhaps most incriminating of all is Joe Biden’s Seattle speech. In words that received less media attention than the “international testing” remarks, Biden asserted that an Obama administration would make unpopular decisions, because “if they're popular, they’re probably not sound.” As a consequence, “You all are going to be sitting here a year from now going, ‘Oh my God, why are they there in the polls, why is the polling so down?’” In other words, Obama’s poll numbers will fall once Americans learn that his popular promises of 2008 have been supplanted in 2009 by actions that most Americans oppose.

We'll be told it's Obama's brilliant mind at work.  Something we proletarians could never possibly understand.  We accept that, don't we?

Finally...

The odds of Obama staying true to his current rhetoric are so poor that not even the boldest gambler should bet on it.

The problem is the number - 10 days to go.  We have to hope that the polls are wrong and that the race is much tighter than we're being told.  We have to hope there won't be any more convenient convulsions - like the economic meltdown - in the last week, that would secure an Obama win.  And we have to hope that McCain can finally break through the media screen.

Much to hope for.  But miracles happen in politics.

October 25, 2008.      Permalink          

UPDATE AT 7:58 A.M. ET:  Dick Morris, on Fox last night, said that the chances of a McCain upset are there, but depend heavily on the stock market.  If we have a quiet week, McCain might gain, based on his economic message.  But if the market continues to plunge, Morris said, McCain won't gain traction because voters' attention will be diverted.

COMMENT:  Morris noted that this is the first election since 1944 where the election was not the main story.  In 1944 it was World War II.  Now it's the economy.

UPDATE AT 7:56 A.M. ET:  Zogby, who had Obama up by as much as 12 late in the week, now has him up 9.  Race tightening, or some pollster drama?  I have no idea.  I wouldn't bet the farm on Zogby polls.

FRIDAY,  OCTOBER 24,  2008

REPUBLICAN ANGER

Posted at 7:03 p.m. ET

There have been a number of stories about Republicans sniping at each other over their anticipated defeat on election day.  You can find a typical one here, at The Politico.

There's nothing unusual about this.  When parties go down to defeat, no one wants to take the blame, so party activists blame each other.  Republicans went at it pretty intensely in the 1970s, leading the party to issue what came to be called "the 11th Commandment" - "thou shalt not speak ill of any other Republican."

The eleventh Commandment did some good, but did not entirely stop the bloodletting.  Please recall that, even at the 1980 convention that nominated Ronald Reagan, the party was divided.  Some in the GOP establishment had serious doubts about Reagan, and urged him to select former President Gerald R. Ford as his running mate, assuring voters that there'd be a "joint presidency."  It was a ridiculous idea, and, of course, never flew.  But Reagan did, with party unity in mind, select George H.W. Bush, a man with whom he shared little ideology.

The Democrats, of course, have an even more vivid history of civil war.  In 1948, with Harry S. Truman running a desperate campaign to hang onto the presidency, the party split.  The Southern wing, angered over civil-rights rumblings, walked off and ran Strom Thurmond against Truman.  The far-left wing, in a huff over anti-Communism, similarly departed, and ran former Vice President Henry A. Wallace for president on the Progressive ticket.  In subsequent years the Southerners kept drifting away, but the left returned, making the party what it is today.

The split among Democrats cost the party the presidency in 1968, when enough Democrats, angered by Vietnam, stayed home on election day to allow Richard M. Nixon to win by a narrow margin.

So don't be shocked by the internecine warfare.  The idea, though, is to do what Reagan did - spend the time in the wilderness developing a coherent, powerful and workable alternative to failed liberalism.  And it's equally important to identify and nurture the candidates who can bring that alternative to power.

A final note:  Some of the greatest leaders in our history have been brutally ridiculed.  Ridicule is often a sign of fear in the heart of the perpetrator. If you lack a winning argument, just ridicule the opposition.  Never write off those who, like Sarah Palin now, and Ronald Reagan earlier, become targets of sneering and ridicule.  They often are the very ones who are poised for greatness.

October 24, 2008.      Permalink          

UPDATE AT 4:03 P.M. ET:  Based on preliminary figures, the Dow closed off 324.  This is not good, but could have been much worse, considering the earlier, overseas markets. 

UPDATE AT 3:43 P.M. ET:   The IBD/TIPP poll, which had Obama up only one yesterday, has him up four today.  The Real Clear Politics spread is now 7.8 percent, and expanding for Obama. 

UPDATE AT 3:04 P.M. ET:  The Dow is recovering, at least right now, and is down 147.

UPDATE AT 1:30 P.M. ET:  Dow is down 282.  So far it has stayed out of disaster territory for the day.

UPDATE AT 1:08 P.M. ET:   Gallup's tracker, just out, shows Obama up five among likely voters, using Gallup's traditional method, a gain of one for Obama since yesterday.  It shows Obama up seven using an expanded model, taking into account possible new voters, also a gain of one since yesterday. 

UPDATE AT 12:47 P.M. ET:  The Dow is down 337.

UPDATE AT 10:09 A.M. ET:  Hotline, which had Obama up five yesterday, has him up seven today.  Battleground, which had Obama up four yesterday, has him up three today.


NOTE AT 10:02 A.M. ET:  Reader Joseph J. Gallick sends in the following, of unknown origin:  "If you had purchased $1,000 of shares in Delta Airlines one year ago, you would have $49 today.  If you had purchased $1,000 of shares in AIG one year ago, you would have $33 today.  If you had purchased $1,000 of shares in Lehman Brothers one year ago, you would have $0 today.

"But, if you had purchased $1,000 worth of beer one year ago, drank all the beer, then sold the aluminum cans for recycling, you would have received $214.

"Based on the above, and given the state of today's financial world, the best current investment plan is to drink heavily and recycle.  It's called the 401-KEG. 

"A recent study found that the average American walks about 900 miles a year.  Another study found that Americans drink, on average, 22 gallons of alcohol a year.  That means that, on average, Americans get about 41 miles to the gallon.

"Makes you proud to be an American!"

UPDATE AT 9:43 A.M. ET:  Dow is now down 451.

UPDATE AT 9:38 A.M. ET:  Rasmussen reports Obama up seven, same as yesterday.

UPDATE AT 9:36 A.M. ET:  After overnight reports of major stock declines in Asia and Europe, the Dow is down 164 at the opening bell.

THE CHOICE

Posted at 8:34 a.m. ET

Peter Robinson, who was a speechwriter for President Reagan, paints a clear picture of what we have in store for us if, as they say, present polling trends continue.  His is one of several articles I've seen in the last few days, each well written, that doesn't hesitate to show deep concern for what is ahead.  Writing in Forbes, and reflecting the words and ideas of the great Thomas Sowell, Robinson says:

Sowell calls one worldview the "constrained vision." It sees human nature as flawed or fallen, seeking to make the best of the possibilities that exist within that constraint. The competing worldview, which Sowell terms the "unconstrained vision," instead sees human nature as capable of continual improvement.

And...

The American Revolution embodied the constrained vision. "In the United States," Sowell says, "it was assumed from the outset that what you needed to do above all was minimize [the damage that could be done by] the flaws in human nature." The founders did so by composing a constitution of checks and balances. More than two centuries later, their work remains in place.

The French Revolution, by contrast, embodied the unconstrained vision. "In France," Sowell says, "the idea was that if you put the right people in charge--if you had a political Messiah--then problems would just go away." The result? The Terror, Napoleon and so many decades of instability that France finally sorted itself out only when Charles de Gaulle declared the Fifth Republic.

And...

Sen. John McCain, who is trailing, has by and large embraced the constrained vision; Sen. Barack Obama, who is leading, the unconstrained vision...

...Whereas McCain has promised to nominate justices "who have a history of strict adherence to the constitution," Obama has said instead that if "someone is being treated unfairly, then the Court has to stand up if nobody else will, and that is the kind of judge I want."

And the result of this?

"Only once you got into the courtroom, in front of the judge," Sowell says, "would you finally learn what the law was. You would have no clue beforehand." We would become less and less a nation of laws, more and more a nation ruled by nine men and women in robes.

And on foreign policy?

"Barack Obama," Sowell says, "has a lot more faith in verbal interactions than I would. What he is proposing under the guise of change is what was tried between the two world wars and failed disastrously." Accommodation, diplomatic overtures, talk. It failed seven decades ago. It would fail today.

No mincing of the vocabulary there. 

Take it all together, Sowell believes, and this election will prove decisive.

"There is such a thing as a point of no return," he says. If Obama wins the White House and Democrats expand their majorities in the House and Senate, they will intervene in the economy and redistribute wealth. Yet their economic policies "will pale by comparison to what they will do in permitting countries to acquire nuclear weapons and turn them over to terrorists. Once that happens, we're at the point of no return. The next generation will live under that threat as far out as the eye can see."

Finally...

"The unconstrained vision is really an elitist vision," Sowell explains. "This man [Obama] really does believe that he can change the world. And people like that are infinitely more dangerous than mere crooked politicians."

It is rare, though, to find discussions like this in the mass media, which is far more interested in Sarah Palin's clothing allowance or any signs of John McCain's age.  Had the facts been explained to the American people, or even hinted at, it's quite possible we'd be going in a different political direction.

October 24, 2008.      Permalink          

LONDON CALLING

Posted at 7:26 a.m. ET

I attended a fine talk last night by Herbert London, president of the Hudson Institute and professor emeritus at New York University.  He's just written a brief and utterly readable book called "America's Secular Challenge, The Rise of a New National Religion," which I commend to you.  (You can click on the Amazon link at the top of our right-hand column to order, should you wish.)

London, a prominent social critic, is concerned about the rise of secularism in America, and the historic challenge it poses to the traditional notion of a country founded on the Judeo-Christian ethic.  Part of that challenge, and one that worries London greatly, is the tearing down of the idea of American exceptionalism, the belief that our values and dreams are in fact exceptional, and an inspiration to the world. 

Herb London made the point that, during the Tiananmen Square riots in China in 1989, the protesters constructed a model, not of Marx or Lenin, or the Eiffel Tower, but a model of the Statue of Liberty.  Of course, America's "intellectual" classes scoffed, or pretended not to notice, but the image cannot be denied.

And so London worries about Barack Obama, who seems to accept the idea of a secular society pretty much on a par with other societies, and London notes that, during his recent Berlin speech, Obama proclaimed himself a citizen of the world.  But he's not running for president of the world.  He's running for president of the United States.  We wonder how he will see his own country as he sits in the Oval Office during a crisis, or a conflict with a dictatorship.  The evidence thus far is less than encouraging.  We hope for a positive surprise.

October 24, 2008.        Permalink          

UPDATE AT 7:01 A.M. ET:  Zogby, who may or may not use sound methodology, has Obama up 10 this morning, a decline from 12 yesterday.

UPDATE AT 6:54 A.M. ET:   From The New York Times:  VIENNA — OPEC ordered a cut in oil production Friday of at least 1.5 million barrels a day. The reduction, announced at an emergency meeting here, will come into effect on Nov. 1, according to Ali al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister.

COMMENT:  The aim is to raise oil prices...for us.  Let's always remember who our friends are, and aren't, if those in Washington being paid off by the Saudi lobby allow us to remember.

"What you see is news.  What you know is background.  What you feel is opinion."
    - Lester Markel, late Sunday editor
      of The New York Times.

SUBSCRIBER CORNER

Note to subscribers and donators:  Our new subscriber services will begin shortly after the election and will be delivered by e-mail. 

SUBSCRIPTIONS:

Subscriptions to URGENT AGENDA are voluntary.  Why subscribe to something you're getting free?  To help guarantee that you'll continue to get it at all, and to get the additional features we now offer subscribers.  Subscriptions sustain us.  Payments are through PayPal and are secure, but you do not have to sign up for a PayPal account.  Credit cards are fine.

FOR A ONE-YEAR ($48) SUBSCRIPTION, CLICK:

FOR A SIX-MONTH ($26) SUBSCRIPTION, CLICK:

IF YOU DON'T WISH A SET SUBSCRIPTION, BUT PREFER TO DONATE ANY OTHER AMOUNT TO SUSTAIN URGENT AGENDA, CLICK:

SEARCH URGENT AGENDA:

POWER LINE:

It's a privilege for me to post periodic pieces at Power Line. To go to Power Line, click here.

To link to my Power Line pieces, go here.

THE CURRENT QUESTION

This space will regularly raise questions that relate to the news, but transcend daily headlines.  The idea is to stimulate talk about basic issues. Our last question asked: 

Last week we asked:

What can John McCain do to address the economic crisis in ways that will turn his campaign around?

You can view the answers here.

NEW CURRENT QUESTION

What is Sarah Palin's future in the Republican Party?

If you'd like to send us your thoughts, click:
response@urgentagenda.com
(Please stay within two or three paragraphs.  We try to print every reply, if space allows.  Place your name at the end of the message if you wish your name published.  This question will stay up through Sunday.)

CONTACT:

YOU CAN E-MAIL US, AS FOLLOWS:

If you have wonderful things to say about this site, if it makes you a better person, please click:
applause@urgentagenda.com

If you have a general comment on anything you see here, or on anything else that's topical, please click:
comments@urgentagenda.com

If you must say something obnoxious, something that will embarrass you and disgrace your loving family, click:
despicable@urgentagenda.com

If you required subscription service, please click:
service@urgentagenda.com

FAVORITE SITES

Power Line
Faster Please (Michael Ledeen)
OpinionJournal.com
Hudson Institute
Bookworm Room
Bill Bennett
Red State
Pajamas Media
Michelle Malkin
The Weekly Standard
The New York Sun
Real Clear Politics
The Corner
City Journal
Gateway Pundit
American Thinker