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SUBSCRIPTION DRIVE

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SEPTEMBER 28-29, 2022

PUMPS?  WHAT PUMPS?  ARE THOSE CONSERVATIVES STILL USING PUMPS?  Yes, liberal friends.  We are.  And we don't like what we're suddenly seeing in those little windows on the pumps.  Just don't tell Joe.  From CBS News: 

SAN FRANCISCO -- After weeks of slow decline, prices at the gas pumps across  the San Francisco Bay Area have surged once again Wednesday to over $6 for a gallon of regular unleaded.

According to AAA, there has been nearly a 20-cent jump between the price of unleaded in the last 24 hours. 

San Francisco rose from $6.098 to $6.289. San Jose's jump was from $5.967 to $6.142 and motorists filling up in Oakland experienced an increase from $5.083 to $6.155.

San Rafael residents were among the highest in the state jumping from $6.107 to $6.304.
The wild swing in prices has taken even veteran industry watchdog Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, by surprise.

"One of the longest gas price declines on record has finally come to an end after 14 weeks, with gas prices shooting up in several regions amidst myriad refinery issues from the West Coast to the Great Lakes and in between," De Haan said in his weekly blog. "I don't know that I've ever seen a wider gamut of price behaviors coast to coast in my career."

"A slew of unexpected refinery disruptions, including fires and routine maintenance, have seemingly all happened in a short span of time, causing wholesale gas prices to spike in areas of the West Coast, Great Lakes and Plains states," he added. "Some of those areas could see prices spike another 25-75 cents per gallon or more until issues are worked out."

Officials have cited "unplanned" refinery maintenance as the stimulus for the steep rise.

Somehow that just doesn't ring true.

"Oil Price Information Service reports that several local refineries are undergoing unplanned maintenance as fuel inventories are at their lowest levels in a decade, which caused Los Angeles wholesale gas prices to rise sharply this week," said Auto Club spokesperson Doug Shupe from Southern California.   

According to Gasbuddy, California, Hawaii and Nevada have the highest prices at the pump.  The steep rise in prices has also caught the attention of lawmakers in Sacramento. 
"California gas prices have jumped 24 cents in the last two days," Assemblyman Kevin Kiley said in a press release. "Californians are now paying over $6 per gallon, nearly $3 more than the national average. This is the result of longstanding policy failures, compounded by the Governor and Legislature's refusal to suspend the gas tax as other states have."

COMMENT:  California has one of the most left-wing regimes in the country.  Green energy is a religion out there, not a dream.  Automobiles are the equivalent of Satan.  The state will do nothing for the gasoline driver. 

If prices keep rising before the election, Democrats might be seeking employment in other governments, like Venezuela.

September 28-29, 2022       Permalink 

ABOUT THOSE POLLS.  Are you guilty?  I am.  We only whisper it, but we know we're currently suffering from Pollitis, a serious disease of the brain that erupts every election season.  It is not curable.  We look at those polls every day, as if they can actually predict the future. 

Oh yes, we're familiar with the usual cautions.  In 1936 the Literary Digest predicted, on the basis of a poll, that Alf Landon would be elected president of the United States, defeating the incumbent, Franklin D. Roosevelt.  Uh, it didn't quite turn out that way.  But that polling catastrophe launched the age of the "scientific" poll, presumably more accurate than the Digest's failed effort.  New techniques were developed.  New personalities appeared, with names like Gallup, Roper, and Samuel Lubell, who was one of my professors.  And yes, polling did become more accurate.

But how accurate?  It is widely accepted that 2020, just two years ago, was a disastrous year for polling.  Many pollsters were so far off that some journalists suggested that the worst of them simply withdraw from the field and never bother us again.  And it was noticed that the pre-election polls that were so inaccurate were almost all inaccurate in the same direction – they overcounted the Democratic vote.  Was there some scheme involved?  Were some pollsters trying to tip the scale?

In the last four or five days we have seen, once again, polling that suggests that a number of races are in the bag for the Dems.  A Republican wave?  What Republican wave?

And so a further word of caution is required.  Distinguished political reporter Rowan Scarborough, of the Washington Times, clarifies the picture for us.   

The polls for Republicans in 2020 were awful. Awfully wrong.

So awful that the normally sedate Pew Research Center unleashed a post-election scolding to the polling triumvirate of media/colleges/consultants who consistently undercounted GOP chances. 

“It’s clear that national and many state estimates were not just off, but off in the same direction: They favored the Democratic candidate,” Pew said in a post-Nov. 3 analysis. 
The error gap is important, Republicans say because bloated Democratic poll numbers can tamp down fundraising and influence some voters to give up — before even voting. It is what Democrats would call “voter suppression.”

Seven weeks away from the Nov. 8 midterms, conservative backbiting has surfaced as they see the “generic congressional” poll in which voters are asked which party they will back tilt away from Republicans.

YouGov just posted numbers that show the Democrats are up 6 points. But Republicans would point out that in 2020, the same firm had the Democrats up a whopping 10 points near Election Day. Democrats actually lost 14 House seats and its post-election spread was three, not 10, or just about a tie, according to data posted by RealClearPolitics.com.

YouGov’s final 2020 presidential poll had Joseph R. Biden winning the popular vote by 10, a giant landslide. He beat then-President Donald Trump by 4.5%. 

Afterward, noted GOP pollster Frank Luntz called on colleagues to quit, referring to mistakes in 2016 too. 

“I think what is happening is accountability in action,” Mr. Luntz said on Fox News’s “Media Buzz.” “And if you got it wrong this time, you got it wrong twice in a row, you shouldn’t be working in the business. There are other things you can do. You can sell real estate. You can sell stocks.”

Pollsters gave Mr. Trump virtually no chance of gaining the magic 270 electoral votes in 2016. He garnered 306, winning in the “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

I’ve spoken to conservative-aligned polling companies with generally better records than the big guys. They say the major mistake is not to “weight” the curated sample of, say, 900 voters. Weighting means to increase or decrease the share of certain demographics, such as white or Black if the final sample is out of whack with recent election history.

Here is some history: In 2020, Quinnipiac University’s final polls had Mr. Trump losing Florida, 47-42. He won by 3.3%. Quinnipiac foresaw Mr. Trump beaten in Ohio 47-43. He won Ohio by 8.2 points. Nationally, it said Mr. Biden would win by 11 points.

CNBC polls had Mr. Biden winning Florida and North Carolina, where he lost, and saw an 8-point win for him in Wisconsin, where he squeaked a win by 0.7. One major poll said Mr. Biden would win Wisconsin by 17 points.

None of 14 polls found Maine Sen. Susan Collins in the lead. Some predicted a substantial defeat. She had a substantial win — by 9 points.

“After this election, I think the polling industry needs to take a hard look at what it does,” Ms. Collins told Fox News.

COMMENT:  Please read the whole thing.  This is one of the best examples of political reporting that I've seen recently.  We'll know in just over six weeks whether history has repeated itself this year, or whether polling has improved.  My hope is that we'll be smiling.  Smiling is good.

September 28, 2022       Permalink

SEPTEMBER 27, 2022

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE:

REPORT FROM PRINCETON, WITH ALMOST A SMILE:  The old school actually has conservatives, and some of them are happy.  From College Fix:  Just over 11 percent of the Princeton University freshmen students are “somewhat right-leaning” or “very right-leaning,” according to The Daily Princetonian’s third annual “Frosh Survey.”  Only 7.6 percent have a “somewhat favorable” or “strongly favorable” view of the Republican Party, the undergraduate campus newspaper survey found. In contrast, 40.6 percent of freshmen said they are “somewhat left-leaning,” while 27.7 percent described themselves as “very left-leaning,” according to the survey.  One freshman who spoke to The College Fix said there is a supportive community of conservatives on campus, but there is definitely a “leftward lean” at Princeton.  “Whether it be mandatory DEI training in orientation or disparaging comments of President Trump in a lecture, there’s no denying the leftward lean of campus politics,” freshman Joseph Tyson told The College Fix via email. “However, I have been pleasantly surprised to find a vibrant conservative community that supports each other as the ideological minority,” he stated.  “While I wouldn’t go as far to say I feel comfortable to share all my views openly at any time on campus, I feel supported as a campus conservative and have a space to share my true beliefs unfiltered,” Tyson wrote.  That's a better report than I would have expected.  Maybe there's some light at the end of the tunnel, although I don't think there'll be a Ronald Reagan Hall at Princeton just yet.

September 27, 2022       Permalink

MORE TENSION IN EUROPE.  As if we need more.  Energy is the key issue in Europe today.  There has apparently been an act of sabotage to a new European pipeline.  With Ukraine on fire, and Russia threatening to use nuclear weapons, the region doesn't need more tension, but it's getting it.  From AP: 

WARSAW, Poland (AP) — Denmark believes “deliberate actions” caused big leaks in two natural gas pipelines running under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany, and seismologists said powerful explosions preceded the leaks.

European leaders and experts pointed to possible sabotage amid the energy standoff with Russia provoked by the war in Ukraine. Although filled with gas, neither pipeline is currently supplying it to Europe.

“It is the authorities’ clear assessment that these are deliberate actions -– not accidents,” Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said Tuesday.

But she added “there is no information indicating who could be behind it.” Frederiksen rejected the suggestion that the incident was an attack on Denmark, saying the leaks occurred in international waters.

The incident overshadowed the inauguration of a long-awaited pipeline that will bring Norwegian gas to Poland to bolster the continent’s energy independence from Moscow.

The first explosion was recorded early Monday southeast of the Danish island of Bornholm, said Bjorn Lund, director of the Swedish National Seismic Network. A second, stronger blast northeast of the island that night was equivalent to a magnitude-2.3 earthquake.

Seismic stations in Denmark, Norway and Finland also registered the explosions.

“There’s no doubt, this is not an earthquake,” Lund said.

On Wednesday, Danish defense minister Morten Bødskov will travel to Brussels to discuss the leaks with NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg.

Denmark’s Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod said Sweden, Germany and Poland have been kept informed, and “we will inform and reach out to Russia in this case.”

He said Denmark’s foreign intelligence service didn’t see any increased military threat against Denmark after the three leaks on the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines.

They created a foamy white area on the water’s surface, images released by Denmark’s military show. Danish Energy Minister Dan Jørgensen said that “we cannot say how long the leak will go” on for as the gas has not been turned off. There was no indication when the gas would be turned off.

The German operator of the pipelines, Nord Stream AG, said it’s preparing a survey to assess the damage.

“Currently, it is not possible to estimate a timeframe for restoring the gas transport infrastructure,” a company statement said. “The causes of the incident will be clarified as a result of the investigation.”

In Sweden, acting Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said “it is probably a case of sabotage,” but not an attack on Sweden.

Andersson added that neighboring oil-rich Norway “has informed us about increased drone activity in the North Sea and the measures they have taken in connection with it.”

COMMENT:  It is understandable that spokesmen want to downplay the threat to individual countries, but you may be sure this development is being taken very seriously, as it demonstrates European vulnerability to energy sabotage.  If an opponent can smash an underwater line, imagine how easy it would be to take out an above-ground line. We certainly have the same concerns here.

It seems to me that, with Ukraine, Iran, Taiwan and a possible economic recession, the world is getting darker.

September 27, 2022       Permalink

YOU REALLY CAN'T MAKE THIS UP:  When a parent dreams of sending a son or daughter, or whatever, to medical school, is this what the parent has in mind?  Really?  From Campus Reform: 

The University of Minnesota Medical School (UMMS) class of 2026 recited an oath during the white coat ceremony that included references to anti-racism, climate advocacy, commitment toward indigenous ways of healing, and collaboration with political and social systems.

A handout provided at the ceremony indicated the oath was written by the oath writing committee, which comprised fifteen medical students in the class of 2026.

Students began the oath by stating, “Our institution is located on Dakota land…We commit to uprooting the legacy and perpetuation of structural violence deeply embedded within the health care system.”

“We recognize the inequities built by past and present traumas rooted in white supremacy, colonialism, the gender binary, ableism, and all other forms of oppression,” the oath continued.

UMMS Media Relations Manager Kat Dodge told Campus Reform that “[i]t is a common practice at medical schools in the United States to build upon the intent of the Hippocratic Oath to promote humility, integrity, and beneficence.”

“Each year at the University of Minnesota Medical School, the incoming students work with faculty to write an oath that reflects these core elements, values, and ethics the class aspires to uphold,” Dodge explained.

The medical students pledged “to honor all Indigenous ways of healing” that are “historically marginalized by Western medicine.”

UMMS students also committed to climate advocacy stating, “health is intimately connected to our environment, we commit to healing our planet and communities.”

COMMENT:  I have a dream today.  Oh yes, I have a dream – that every patient entering a doctor's office to have life-saving treatment will demand proof that the doctor has taken the above oath.  Let's not fool around with the planet any longer! 

September 27, 2022     Permalink