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OCTOBER 28,  2022

Didn't see anything today that changed the general direction of the political campaigns.  The numbers continue to show slow, but decisive, Republican gains...although one must remember that the election will be decided by those who vote, not those who answer polls.  I expect to see the get-out-the-vote campaigns to start with full fury this coming week.

There is a steadiness to the Republican campaigns that is admirable.  The party has done a solid job of planning, and directing funds to campaigns that need them. 

This week we'll see a true political spectacle in New York.  Governor Ron deSantis of Florida will be here to campaign for Congressman Lee Zeldin, who's running for governor against the incumbent Kathy Hochul, the former lieutenant governor who became governor when Andrew Cuomo was forced to resign over scandals.  Watch this week's event carefully.  Governor deSantis is a favorite for the Republican nomination for president, should Trump not run...or even if he does.  A recent poll reported that most Americans want neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump to run again. 

If deSantis runs, and gets the nomination, Lee Zeldin would fit well in the second spot.  He would be seen as a giant killer, defeating an incumbent Dem governor in a very blue state.  Look, you never know.  It can all come true.  So we'll get to see two stars campaigning together.  Take notes for the future.

By contrast, the Dems are saving their big and little guns for Pennsylvania.  Former President Obama will be in the state, along with current semi-President Biden and Vice President in her dreams Kamala Harris.  They will try to save the Senate campaign of John Fetterman, who is slipping in his race against Dr. Mehmet Oz.  I'll be willing to bet that the GOP campaigners draw bigger crowds than the Dem partisans. 

And watch for some last-minute surprise.  The Dems will stop at nothing, which is what they have to offer.  I wouldn't be shocked if there were an attempt this week to indict Donald Trump.

October 28, 2022       Permalink 

ANOTHER GROUP MOVES RIGHT:  We've seen a great deal about the dramatic movement right of our Hispanic communities.  There are also others on the same path, although maybe not to the same degree.  American blacks, understandably frustrated by their lack of progress under the Democrats, are taking a careful look rightward.  This could be devastating to the Democratic Party.  From Newsweek:

Election day is two weeks away, and the Left is freaking out about losses among minority voters such as Blacks, once a reliable base of support. The signs of the freakout are everywhere, but especially in the desperate, wacky, and downright insulting tactics they are currently employing to lure, nudge, and shame Blacks into voting for liberal candidates.

Let's start with the insulting. MSNBC host Tiffany Cross slammed the Republican National Committee's slate of "diverse" Republican congressional candidates, saying "faces of color do not always equate to voices of color." She then tokenized minority Republicans, including those currently serving in Congress such as Senators Ted Cruz, Tim Scott, and Marco Rubio, and Representatives Byron Donalds, Mayra Flores, Nicole Malliotakis, Burgess Owens, and others, adding that they are "the political equivalent of 'some of my best friends are Black.'"

Liberal elites often dismiss conservative minority candidates to avoid real debate. Hosts like Cross, elected officials, and political pundits don't want minority voters to know that there are good reasons to consider non-liberal candidates, especially those of the same race. It undercuts the narrative that Democrats are the party of inclusivity. Increasingly, the criticism that Republicans don't reach out to communities of color is proving as false as the belief that conservative values don't resonate with minorities.

Now, to the desperate. The stakes are high in this midterm election. The Right enjoys enthusiasm from reliable Republican voters, but also interest from newly disaffected liberal voters who are angry about the draconian pandemic mandates that destroyed livelihoods, as well as the radical race and gender ideology infiltrating schools and inflation. And the Left is fighting apathy among minorities.

Depressed Black turnout could destroy Democrats' path to victory in closely-contested gubernatorial and Senate races such as Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Although Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden won urban areas, President Trump did better in both cycles in cities like Philadelphia.

COMMENT:  Read the rest.  If the trend continues, expect to hear talk of a third party,one that could fill the gap on the center left being created by the current Democratic Party, which has gone to the elitist nuts.

October 28, 2022       Permalink

OCTOBER 27,  2022

THE TREND –WHERE THINGS STAND:  There are so many polls out there, and using them often turns out to be more of a game than real research.  But a new poll out today strikes me as very professional and well thought through.  Of course, I like the result as well.  From USA TODAY:

Republicans are resurgent as the midterm campaign heads into its final stretch, an exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds, amid angst about President Joe Biden's leadership and the nation's economy.

As Americans feel the bite of inflation in their daily lives, from eating out less often to canceling vacations, voters overwhelmingly view the election as a way to send a message to the White House – and by double digits, that message is to change course. 

On a generic ballot, one naming parties but not individual candidates, those surveyed now support the Republican congressional candidate over the Democratic one by 49%-45%, a turnaround since the USA TODAY poll taken in July, when Democrats led 44%-40%. The findings stoke GOP hopes of gaining control of the House of Representatives in the Nov. 8 elections, and with that, new powers to confront the Democratic White House.

And the Senate too.

Democratic congressional candidates have held their support since the summer, ticking up 1 percentage point, but most of the 16% of voters who were undecided then have now made up their minds and moved to the GOP. As early voting is opening in many states, just 6% remain undecided.

The poll of 1,000 likely voters, taken by landline and cellphone Oct. 19-24, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The July poll was of registered voters.
The generic ballot is an imperfect way to predict how the elections will turn out. But the trend lines have proved valuable in signaling which party is gaining ground and which one is losing it.

COMMENT:   The poll was of likely voters, which usually produces a result somewhat more favorable to Republicans than a survey of registered voters.  Republicans are more likely to vote.

We are seeing the same trend nationwide, although the extent of it will not be clear until the actual ballots are in.  But Republicans right now should 1) feel pretty good and 2) resolve to fight to the max right up to the closing day of the campaign.  Never let down.

October 27, 2022       Permalink

FRIGHTFUL – AND WE AVERT OUR EYES – The revolution in Iran rages on, and we barely watch.   From the Jerusalem post: 

Heavy clashes broke out between protesters and government forces in Mahabad in northern Iran on Thursday, as an anti-regime protester Ismail Moloudi, who was killed by security forces, was buried in the city.

Videos from Moloudi's funeral showed family and friends chanting "the Shahid (martyr) will not die," according to the Hengaw Human Rights Organization. After the funeral, crowds of protesters marched toward and surrounded the governor's office in Mahabad, with intense clashes breaking out throughout the city.

Heavy gunfire was heard in videos of Mahabad and, according to Hengaw, at least three protesters were shot dead by Iranian forces during the protests in Mahabad, named as Shaho Khazri, Zanyar Abubakri and Kubra Sheikh Saqa.

Internet access in Mahabad was seriously disrupted on Thursday evening amid the clashes, according to Internet watchdog NetBlocks.

And...

In Baneh, heavy clashes were reported between protesters and security forces, with heavy gunfire heard in video reportedly from the scene. At least two protesters were shot and killed in the city of Baneh as well, according to Hengaw.

COMMENT:  It's been going on for weeks, with women often leading the way.  But we seem indifferent here, the public taking its cue from the yawning of the Biden administration, which appears to have little problem with the mullahs.

Wake up!  Wake up!

October 27, 2022       Permalink