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OCTOBER 27,  2022

THE TREND –WHERE THINGS STAND:  There are so many polls out there, and using them often turns out to be more of a game than real research.  But a new poll out today strikes me as very professional and well thought through.  Of course, I like the result as well.  From USA TODAY:

Republicans are resurgent as the midterm campaign heads into its final stretch, an exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds, amid angst about President Joe Biden's leadership and the nation's economy.

As Americans feel the bite of inflation in their daily lives, from eating out less often to canceling vacations, voters overwhelmingly view the election as a way to send a message to the White House – and by double digits, that message is to change course. 

On a generic ballot, one naming parties but not individual candidates, those surveyed now support the Republican congressional candidate over the Democratic one by 49%-45%, a turnaround since the USA TODAY poll taken in July, when Democrats led 44%-40%. The findings stoke GOP hopes of gaining control of the House of Representatives in the Nov. 8 elections, and with that, new powers to confront the Democratic White House.

And the Senate too.

Democratic congressional candidates have held their support since the summer, ticking up 1 percentage point, but most of the 16% of voters who were undecided then have now made up their minds and moved to the GOP. As early voting is opening in many states, just 6% remain undecided.

The poll of 1,000 likely voters, taken by landline and cellphone Oct. 19-24, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The July poll was of registered voters.
The generic ballot is an imperfect way to predict how the elections will turn out. But the trend lines have proved valuable in signaling which party is gaining ground and which one is losing it.

COMMENT:   The poll was of likely voters, which usually produces a result somewhat more favorable to Republicans than a survey of registered voters.  Republicans are more likely to vote.

We are seeing the same trend nationwide, although the extent of it will not be clear until the actual ballots are in.  But Republicans right now should 1) feel pretty good and 2) resolve to fight to the max right up to the closing day of the campaign.  Never let down.

October 27, 2022       Permalink

FRIGHTFUL – AND WE AVERT OUR EYES – The revolution in Iran rages on, and we barely watch.   From the Jerusalem post: 

Heavy clashes broke out between protesters and government forces in Mahabad in northern Iran on Thursday, as an anti-regime protester Ismail Moloudi, who was killed by security forces, was buried in the city.

Videos from Moloudi's funeral showed family and friends chanting "the Shahid (martyr) will not die," according to the Hengaw Human Rights Organization. After the funeral, crowds of protesters marched toward and surrounded the governor's office in Mahabad, with intense clashes breaking out throughout the city.

Heavy gunfire was heard in videos of Mahabad and, according to Hengaw, at least three protesters were shot dead by Iranian forces during the protests in Mahabad, named as Shaho Khazri, Zanyar Abubakri and Kubra Sheikh Saqa.

Internet access in Mahabad was seriously disrupted on Thursday evening amid the clashes, according to Internet watchdog NetBlocks.

And...

In Baneh, heavy clashes were reported between protesters and security forces, with heavy gunfire heard in video reportedly from the scene. At least two protesters were shot and killed in the city of Baneh as well, according to Hengaw.

COMMENT:  It's been going on for weeks, with women often leading the way.  But we seem indifferent here, the public taking its cue from the yawning of the Biden administration, which appears to have little problem with the mullahs.

Wake up!  Wake up!

October 27, 2022       Permalink

OCTOBER 26,  2022

ARIZONA OPENS UP:  Once a solid red state, the home of Barry Goldwater and John McCain, Arizona in recent years has been drifting somewhat left.   This year the GOP is making a major effort to bring Arizona back to its conservative base, and may well be succeeding.  From Breitbart: 

Republican Kari Lake has taken a commanding double-digit lead in Arizona’s gubernatorial race, while GOP candidate Blake Masters is neck and neck with Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) in the U.S. Senate contest, according to a poll. 

The Insider Advantage poll, sponsored by Fox 10 Phoenix, shows that 54 percent of likely voters are backing Lake, a former news anchor for the station, while 45 percent are supporting Hobbs. About two percent of respondents are undecided. The Republican is reportedly polling better among older demographics and with Latinos. 

Arizona Governor:
Kari Lake (R) 54% (+11)
Katie Hobbs (D) 43%
.@InsiderPolling/@FOX10Phoenix, 550 LV, 10/24-24https://t.co/wJtTR0SP4q
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 26, 2022

While a Data for Progress poll released earlier in the day showed Lake up four, Insider Advantage’s numbers indicate she has blown the contest wide-open with only 13 days to go until the election. Hobbs refused to debate Lake under any circumstances, and pollster Matt Towery believes this could have contributed to Lake’s growing lead. 

The U.S. Senate race is in a statistical dead heat. Of likely voter respondents, 43 percent say they are voting for Masters, while 45 percent support Kelly. Another six percent say they back Libertarian candidate Marc Victor. As Masters is within the margin of error, the race is a statistical tie. The Data for Progress poll from earlier in the day showed both candidates polling at 47 percent and Victor at three percent. 

Masters has steadily surged in the race despite a major fundraising disadvantage, and Democrat strategists at the national and local levels have become concerned about Kelly’s reelection chances, as Politico’s Natalie Allison reported on Saturday.

“We believe this is a race that’s within a point in either direction, and there’s still a good chance that we would lose,” a Democrat source close to the campaign told Politico. “And it’s important people understand that.”

While speaking with host Matthew Boyle on Sirius XM’s Breitbart News Saturday over the weekend, Masters acknowledged that the momentum behind his campaign is “undeniable.”

“The momentum here on the ground is undeniable, and I’m not surprised to see that reflected in the polls,” Masters said. “You know, we’ve got the winning message. Mark Kelly’s got nothing but lies to run on; he’s got to lie about me with vicious attack ads that are fake, and he’s got to lie about his own record.”

COMMENT:  Kari Lake is emerging as a new Republican star.  Attractive, articulate, sharp, she has major personal magnetism.  She is already being talked about as a vice presidential candidate in 2024.  But, caution.  Sarah Palin had this kind of buildup as well.  Campaigning on a national level is far different from triumphing on the state level.  In national politics they start shooting at you before you even enter the room.  

Lake is a favorite of Donald Trump.  Okay, fine.  But if Trump's campaign for re-election to the presidency starts to falter, Lake can go south with him.  Also, although most of her views are mainstream conservative, she has some eonnections on the fringe right that are worrying to some in the party.  As governor, she'll start to get serious scrutiny.  We'll be watching.

As for Masters, he has campaigned in the shadow of Kari Lake, and is only now becoming known.  He is also a Trumper.  And he has made some extreme statements in the past that worry some mainstream Republicans.  But he seems to be running a standard Trump-style campaign, and most voters seem ready to forgive past opinions.  We'll see.

October 26, 2022       Permalink

AND IN THE REAL WORLD:  We remind readers again that foreign policy has, disgracefully, been left out of the current campaign.  But the realities are there – the continuing revolt in Iran, the hot war in Ukraine, a possible explosion over China's claim to Taiwan. 

There's an old saying in politics, that you can take four years of a bad domestic policy, but that four years of a bad foreign policy can kill you.

One new development:  Our inept Iran policy has apparently drawn its first casualty, and it's long overdue.  From the Washington Free Beacon:

Biden administration Iran envoy Robert Malley is under increasing pressure to resign his post, as members of Congress and Iranian-American advocacy groups lose faith in his ability to support a growing protest movement in the Islamic Republic that threatens to topple the hardline regime.

The protests, which first erupted after the regime's morality police murdered a young woman who didn't properly wear her head covering, have quickly evolved into a referendum on the Iranian regime itself. But Malley, who has been the administration's public face of diplomacy with Tehran, claimed the protesters are merely demonstrating "for their government to respect their dignity and human rights"—even in the face of mounting evidence they are protesting to end the oppressive regime.

The Biden administration is still waiving economic sanctions on the Iranian regime as it seeks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, though the prospects of reaching an agreement grow increasingly slender. These efforts have also forced the administration to walk a diplomatic tightrope as it offers tepid support to protesters to avoid isolating the hardline government from negotiations. Following Malley's online gaffe, the State Department declined to answer Washington Free Beacon questions about whether it assesses that Iranian protesters are seeking regime change, even as those protesters chant "Death to the Dictator" and make clear they want the theocratic government dismantled.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R., Texas), a leading congressional critic of a new Iran deal, told the Free Beacon that the "Biden administration is literally invested in the survival of the Iranian regime because the administration wants Iranian oil to make up for the catastrophe they've created by attacking American energy producers. That's why they can't bring themselves to support the calls by the people of Iran for regime change."

"Robert Malley will go down in the history books as the most ineffective and feckless State Department official of the last 50 years. It's time for him to go," Bryan Leib, executive director of Iranian Americans for Liberty, a grassroots group that supports democracy, told the Free Beacon. "His most recent gaffe on Twitter is just another example of how he has aligned the United States government with the Islamic Republic and not with liberty-seeking Iranian people. His fake apology is not accepted and he should be terminated immediately."

Leib's comments were echoed by many on Twitter, who accused Malley of obfuscating the issue.

"It's a revolution," Alireza Nader, an Iran expert and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank, replied to Malley's tweet.

"Respect?" asked popular Iran commentator Saman Arabi. "Iranian [people] are literally asking for regime change!"

Though Malley later apologized for his tweet, saying it was "poorly worded," congressional sources and other foreign policy insiders say that the damage has been done and that Malley's credibility with Iranian reformers is shattered.

COMMENT:  It was shattered long ago.  Malley is an Obama guy.  He held the same post, Iran negotiator, under the Obama administration, and was largely responsible for the ridiculous Iran nuclear deal, which gave most of the cards to the Iranians.  Malley is a leftist, and has no business being in the position he's in.  His presence, in my view, reflects the influence the Obama crowd still has in the Biden administration. 

I don't know if Biden is in a position to fire Malley.  I mean, what will Barack say?

October 26, 2022       Permalink