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OCTOBER 26,  2022

ARIZONA OPENS UP:  Once a solid red state, the home of Barry Goldwater and John McCain, Arizona in recent years has been drifting somewhat left.   This year the GOP is making a major effort to bring Arizona back to its conservative base, and may well be succeeding.  From Breitbart: 

Republican Kari Lake has taken a commanding double-digit lead in Arizona’s gubernatorial race, while GOP candidate Blake Masters is neck and neck with Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) in the U.S. Senate contest, according to a poll. 

The Insider Advantage poll, sponsored by Fox 10 Phoenix, shows that 54 percent of likely voters are backing Lake, a former news anchor for the station, while 45 percent are supporting Hobbs. About two percent of respondents are undecided. The Republican is reportedly polling better among older demographics and with Latinos. 

Arizona Governor:
Kari Lake (R) 54% (+11)
Katie Hobbs (D) 43%
.@InsiderPolling/@FOX10Phoenix, 550 LV, 10/24-24https://t.co/wJtTR0SP4q
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 26, 2022

While a Data for Progress poll released earlier in the day showed Lake up four, Insider Advantage’s numbers indicate she has blown the contest wide-open with only 13 days to go until the election. Hobbs refused to debate Lake under any circumstances, and pollster Matt Towery believes this could have contributed to Lake’s growing lead. 

The U.S. Senate race is in a statistical dead heat. Of likely voter respondents, 43 percent say they are voting for Masters, while 45 percent support Kelly. Another six percent say they back Libertarian candidate Marc Victor. As Masters is within the margin of error, the race is a statistical tie. The Data for Progress poll from earlier in the day showed both candidates polling at 47 percent and Victor at three percent. 

Masters has steadily surged in the race despite a major fundraising disadvantage, and Democrat strategists at the national and local levels have become concerned about Kelly’s reelection chances, as Politico’s Natalie Allison reported on Saturday.

“We believe this is a race that’s within a point in either direction, and there’s still a good chance that we would lose,” a Democrat source close to the campaign told Politico. “And it’s important people understand that.”

While speaking with host Matthew Boyle on Sirius XM’s Breitbart News Saturday over the weekend, Masters acknowledged that the momentum behind his campaign is “undeniable.”

“The momentum here on the ground is undeniable, and I’m not surprised to see that reflected in the polls,” Masters said. “You know, we’ve got the winning message. Mark Kelly’s got nothing but lies to run on; he’s got to lie about me with vicious attack ads that are fake, and he’s got to lie about his own record.”

COMMENT:  Kari Lake is emerging as a new Republican star.  Attractive, articulate, sharp, she has major personal magnetism.  She is already being talked about as a vice presidential candidate in 2024.  But, caution.  Sarah Palin had this kind of buildup as well.  Campaigning on a national level is far different from triumphing on the state level.  In national politics they start shooting at you before you even enter the room.  

Lake is a favorite of Donald Trump.  Okay, fine.  But if Trump's campaign for re-election to the presidency starts to falter, Lake can go south with him.  Also, although most of her views are mainstream conservative, she has some eonnections on the fringe right that are worrying to some in the party.  As governor, she'll start to get serious scrutiny.  We'll be watching.

As for Masters, he has campaigned in the shadow of Kari Lake, and is only now becoming known.  He is also a Trumper.  And he has made some extreme statements in the past that worry some mainstream Republicans.  But he seems to be running a standard Trump-style campaign, and most voters seem ready to forgive past opinions.  We'll see.

October 26, 2022       Permalink

AND IN THE REAL WORLD:  We remind readers again that foreign policy has, disgracefully, been left out of the current campaign.  But the realities are there – the continuing revolt in Iran, the hot war in Ukraine, a possible explosion over China's claim to Taiwan. 

There's an old saying in politics, that you can take four years of a bad domestic policy, but that four years of a bad foreign policy can kill you.

One new development:  Our inept Iran policy has apparently drawn its first casualty, and it's long overdue.  From the Washington Free Beacon:

Biden administration Iran envoy Robert Malley is under increasing pressure to resign his post, as members of Congress and Iranian-American advocacy groups lose faith in his ability to support a growing protest movement in the Islamic Republic that threatens to topple the hardline regime.

The protests, which first erupted after the regime's morality police murdered a young woman who didn't properly wear her head covering, have quickly evolved into a referendum on the Iranian regime itself. But Malley, who has been the administration's public face of diplomacy with Tehran, claimed the protesters are merely demonstrating "for their government to respect their dignity and human rights"—even in the face of mounting evidence they are protesting to end the oppressive regime.

The Biden administration is still waiving economic sanctions on the Iranian regime as it seeks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, though the prospects of reaching an agreement grow increasingly slender. These efforts have also forced the administration to walk a diplomatic tightrope as it offers tepid support to protesters to avoid isolating the hardline government from negotiations. Following Malley's online gaffe, the State Department declined to answer Washington Free Beacon questions about whether it assesses that Iranian protesters are seeking regime change, even as those protesters chant "Death to the Dictator" and make clear they want the theocratic government dismantled.

Sen. Ted Cruz (R., Texas), a leading congressional critic of a new Iran deal, told the Free Beacon that the "Biden administration is literally invested in the survival of the Iranian regime because the administration wants Iranian oil to make up for the catastrophe they've created by attacking American energy producers. That's why they can't bring themselves to support the calls by the people of Iran for regime change."

"Robert Malley will go down in the history books as the most ineffective and feckless State Department official of the last 50 years. It's time for him to go," Bryan Leib, executive director of Iranian Americans for Liberty, a grassroots group that supports democracy, told the Free Beacon. "His most recent gaffe on Twitter is just another example of how he has aligned the United States government with the Islamic Republic and not with liberty-seeking Iranian people. His fake apology is not accepted and he should be terminated immediately."

Leib's comments were echoed by many on Twitter, who accused Malley of obfuscating the issue.

"It's a revolution," Alireza Nader, an Iran expert and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank, replied to Malley's tweet.

"Respect?" asked popular Iran commentator Saman Arabi. "Iranian [people] are literally asking for regime change!"

Though Malley later apologized for his tweet, saying it was "poorly worded," congressional sources and other foreign policy insiders say that the damage has been done and that Malley's credibility with Iranian reformers is shattered.

COMMENT:  It was shattered long ago.  Malley is an Obama guy.  He held the same post, Iran negotiator, under the Obama administration, and was largely responsible for the ridiculous Iran nuclear deal, which gave most of the cards to the Iranians.  Malley is a leftist, and has no business being in the position he's in.  His presence, in my view, reflects the influence the Obama crowd still has in the Biden administration. 

I don't know if Biden is in a position to fire Malley.  I mean, what will Barack say?

October 26, 2022       Permalink

OCTOBER 24-25,  2022

TWO DEBATES:  Two critical debates have just been held.  In New York, the first and only debate between Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul, and her challenger, Republican Congressman Lee Zeldin, is now history.  By virtually all accounts, Zeldin sank Hochul, nailing her on the crime issues, a hot topic in New York.  From Breitbart:

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D), when challenged on cash bail reform and her refusal to discuss locking up criminals by Rep. Lee Zeldin (R) during Tuesday night’s debate, said, “I don’t know why that’s so important to you.”

“We’re halfway through the debate, and she still hasn’t talked about locking up anyone committing any crimes,” Zeldin said, to which Hochul responded, “Anyone who commits a crime under our laws, especially with the change we made to bail, has consequences. I don’t know why that’s so important to you.” 

She doesn't know why that's so important to Zeldin?  Is she serious?  With that line alone, Kathy Hochul lost the debate bigtime.  Zeldin is still the underdog in fanatically Democratic New York, but polls show the race as a tossup.  After this debate, if enough voters watched, Zeldin should have a lead. 

In Pennsylvania, the first and only  debate between the two contenders for a seat in the U.S. Senate is now also history.  Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, battling the effects of a recent stroke, debated Dr. Mehmet Oz, of television fame.  From Axios: 

Capitol Hill's reaction to the Pennsylvania Senate debate was brutal for Democratic nominee John Fetterman, from Democrats and Republicans alike.

Why it matters: Multiple sources wondered why Fetterman agreed to debate when he clearly wasn’t ready. Fetterman struggled at times to respond to the moderators' questions, even with the assistance of a closed captioning device.

"Why the hell did Fetterman agree to this?" one Democratic lawmaker and Fetterman backer told Axios. "This will obviously raise more questions than answers about John's health."

Fetterman opened the debate by calling his health the "elephant" in the room.
"I had a stroke. He’s never let me forget that," he said, referring to GOP opponent Mehmet Oz.

“And I might miss some words during this debate, mush two words together, but it knocked me down and I’m going to keep coming back up.”

Fetterman did not commit to releasing his full medical records. "My doctor believes I'm fit to serve," Fetterman said.

The post-debate commentary on NewsNation focused primarily on Fetterman's health and capacity to serve.

NewsNation host Leland Vittert said "the biggest issue was John Fetterman's health and his ability to comprehend speech, and to then speak coherently on the issues of the day."

Another Pennsylvania Democratic official worried: "Everyone is nervous. I've traveled everywhere. Fetterman is a deep concern. And this debate will only increase it."

COMMENT:  It is sad that Fetterman is so impaired.  It is his record and his beliefs that should be the focus, and both place him on the hard left of the Democratic Party.  His medical condition may well diminish his chances, although some may feel sympathetic toward him, and give him the benefit of the doubt. 

The general feeling is that Oz won rather easily.  He and Fetterman are essentially neck and neck in the polls.  The Pennsylvania seat is currently held by Republican Pat Toomey, who is retiring.  It is critical for Republicans to keep it, and that means an Oz victory. 

The Senate is currently divided with 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats and two Independents, both of whom caucus with the Dems.  In other words, it's a 50-50 Senate, with Vice President and Chief Intellect Kamala Harris breaking a tie.  Republicans need to gain only one seat to have Senate control, assuming the Republicans stay united.   

October 24-25, 2022       Permalink

TWO WEEKS TO GO – WHERE THINGS STAND – FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER:   

With the midterm homestretch underway, Republicans appear to have momentum on their side in their quest to flip the Senate as three states move in their direction in a key forecast.

RealClearPolitics's Senate projection recently moved three battleground Senate races to the GOP: Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight has tightened its projections for the Senate amid a deluge of polling showing the Republicans gaining ground.

"Was a bit skeptical of the GOP poll surge before, but I think the evidence for it is now pretty convincing, and if anything I'm more bearish on Democratic chances than our model is," FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver tweeted.

FiveThirtyEight gives Republicans a 45% chance of winning the Senate, which diverges from RealClearPolitics's projection that the GOP will secure a 53 to 47 seat majority in the Senate.

Both forecasts project that Republicans are favored to win the House. Given the 50 to 50 split in the Senate, the GOP only needs to win one seat to secure the upper chamber. Vice President Kamala Harris serves as the tiebreaker vote when the Senate is evenly divided on issues.

Republican Adam Laxalt is now polling ahead of incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) in the Battle Born State by 1.2 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics aggregate. However, Republicans Blake Masters of Arizona and Herschel Walker of Georgia are polling behind their Democratic rivals in their respective Senate contests.

Walker has been rocked by a recent scandal following a bombshell Daily Beast report earlier in the month that he paid and encouraged a woman to have an abortion — an allegation he denies. But the forecast appears to assume that the race will head to a runoff, giving him more time to make up ground.

Masters has long trailed incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), but he appears to have made a little headway in recent polling against him. He is trailing by about 2.5 points, but adjusting for October polls, that gap narrows to 0.7, per RealClearPolitics.

Republicans have rebounded massively in generic congressional polling, now favored over the Democrats by 3.1 points. This is up from where they were in June before the Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision that preceded a substantial GOP polling tumble in the metric.

COMMENT:  We stress again that polls are snapshots in time.  The two-week period until the election is a lifetime in politics.  Anything can happen.  There clearly has been a movement toward the GOP, but polling in many individual races is still pretty tight.  Handle these forecasts with care.

October 24, 2022       Permalink

THEY DIDN'T FOLLOW THE SCRIPT, NETWORK ANCHOR IN SERIOUS SHOCK – FROM TOWNHALL.COM: 

A balanced focus group on CBS's "Face the Nation" Sunday morning surely didn't go quite as producers expected when the Democrat and the independent voter both found themselves agreeing with the Republican on key issues, including "woke culture" in schools.

The discussion, moderated by anchor Margaret Brennan, started off pretty tame and predictable, with participants describing the effects of a sputtering economy, inflation, and high gas prices on their own lives. But when the topic turned to raising children in America, even Brennan seemed surprised by the level of agreement.

What are your biggest concerns about raising children in America right now?" Brennan asked John, the self-identified Republican on the panel.

"The whole woke culture affecting our children," John responded. "All these elementary schools and middle schools having woke culture pushed on them from the LGBT plus community for sexual identity and gender. We should be pushing the actual school studies, math, social studies, science. Not, you know, gender studies or sexual identification."

Seemingly hoping for a counterpoint, Brennan next turned to Lashawn, the Democrat, and asked her to "weigh in on this."

"I can also agree with some of his points," Lashawn said. "I say sex education, I feel like some things are brought to the children’s attention, they wouldn’t even think about."

And you have eight kids," said Brennan. "I imagine you have some pretty specific ideas in your mind when you’re speaking about this?"

"Yes, I do. Yes," Lashawn responded. "Children aren’t – you know, they’re really influenced. You can teach them one thing at home, but when they go to school, they’re just as much influenced by their teachers and their surroundings. And we should have more input, the parents, of what we want them to learn."

Stephanie, the independent, stated her agreement with John and Lashawn before citing her own Covid-related school concern.

After a brief discussion about crime and border security concerns, Brennan made a point to note how this focus group has been different from others the network has done.

"Often when we do these focus groups we have people from different party affiliations disagreeing with each other, but I’m hearing all of you echo a lot of the same concerns and agreeing with each other," she said. "None of you are very optimistic about the country right now."

"No," Stephanie replied dryly.

Sure, it's just one focus group. But it also aligns with current polling. With midterm elections quickly approaching, when ordinary people of all political persuasions start agreeing on key conservative issues, it can only mean bad news for Democrats.

COMMENT:  The biggest political story of our time may well be the parents' revolt that was first detected in Virginia, and which allowed Republican Glenn Youngkin to flip the state red and become its governor.  Millions of American parents are fed up with the way their children are manipulated by the school system.  These parents vote, as the Democratic Party of Virginia learned. 

October 24, 2022       Permalink