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I appeared on Silvio Canto Jr's talk show from Dallas.  It's here.

OCTOBER 24-25,  2022

TWO DEBATES:  Two critical debates have just been held.  In New York, the first and only debate between Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul, and her challenger, Republican Congressman Lee Zeldin, is now history.  By virtually all accounts, Zeldin sank Hochul, nailing her on the crime issues, a hot topic in New York.  From Breitbart:

New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D), when challenged on cash bail reform and her refusal to discuss locking up criminals by Rep. Lee Zeldin (R) during Tuesday night’s debate, said, “I don’t know why that’s so important to you.”

“We’re halfway through the debate, and she still hasn’t talked about locking up anyone committing any crimes,” Zeldin said, to which Hochul responded, “Anyone who commits a crime under our laws, especially with the change we made to bail, has consequences. I don’t know why that’s so important to you.” 

She doesn't know why that's so important to Zeldin?  Is she serious?  With that line alone, Kathy Hochul lost the debate bigtime.  Zeldin is still the underdog in fanatically Democratic New York, but polls show the race as a tossup.  After this debate, if enough voters watched, Zeldin should have a lead. 

In Pennsylvania, the first and only  debate between the two contenders for a seat in the U.S. Senate is now also history.  Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, battling the effects of a recent stroke, debated Dr. Mehmet Oz, of television fame.  From Axios: 

Capitol Hill's reaction to the Pennsylvania Senate debate was brutal for Democratic nominee John Fetterman, from Democrats and Republicans alike.

Why it matters: Multiple sources wondered why Fetterman agreed to debate when he clearly wasn’t ready. Fetterman struggled at times to respond to the moderators' questions, even with the assistance of a closed captioning device.

"Why the hell did Fetterman agree to this?" one Democratic lawmaker and Fetterman backer told Axios. "This will obviously raise more questions than answers about John's health."

Fetterman opened the debate by calling his health the "elephant" in the room.
"I had a stroke. He’s never let me forget that," he said, referring to GOP opponent Mehmet Oz.

“And I might miss some words during this debate, mush two words together, but it knocked me down and I’m going to keep coming back up.”

Fetterman did not commit to releasing his full medical records. "My doctor believes I'm fit to serve," Fetterman said.

The post-debate commentary on NewsNation focused primarily on Fetterman's health and capacity to serve.

NewsNation host Leland Vittert said "the biggest issue was John Fetterman's health and his ability to comprehend speech, and to then speak coherently on the issues of the day."

Another Pennsylvania Democratic official worried: "Everyone is nervous. I've traveled everywhere. Fetterman is a deep concern. And this debate will only increase it."

COMMENT:  It is sad that Fetterman is so impaired.  It is his record and his beliefs that should be the focus, and both place him on the hard left of the Democratic Party.  His medical condition may well diminish his chances, although some may feel sympathetic toward him, and give him the benefit of the doubt. 

The general feeling is that Oz won rather easily.  He and Fetterman are essentially neck and neck in the polls.  The Pennsylvania seat is currently held by Republican Pat Toomey, who is retiring.  It is critical for Republicans to keep it, and that means an Oz victory. 

The Senate is currently divided with 50 Republicans, 48 Democrats and two Independents, both of whom caucus with the Dems.  In other words, it's a 50-50 Senate, with Vice President and Chief Intellect Kamala Harris breaking a tie.  Republicans need to gain only one seat to have Senate control, assuming the Republicans stay united.   

October 24-25, 2022       Permalink

TWO WEEKS TO GO – WHERE THINGS STAND – FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER:   

With the midterm homestretch underway, Republicans appear to have momentum on their side in their quest to flip the Senate as three states move in their direction in a key forecast.

RealClearPolitics's Senate projection recently moved three battleground Senate races to the GOP: Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight has tightened its projections for the Senate amid a deluge of polling showing the Republicans gaining ground.

"Was a bit skeptical of the GOP poll surge before, but I think the evidence for it is now pretty convincing, and if anything I'm more bearish on Democratic chances than our model is," FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver tweeted.

FiveThirtyEight gives Republicans a 45% chance of winning the Senate, which diverges from RealClearPolitics's projection that the GOP will secure a 53 to 47 seat majority in the Senate.

Both forecasts project that Republicans are favored to win the House. Given the 50 to 50 split in the Senate, the GOP only needs to win one seat to secure the upper chamber. Vice President Kamala Harris serves as the tiebreaker vote when the Senate is evenly divided on issues.

Republican Adam Laxalt is now polling ahead of incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) in the Battle Born State by 1.2 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics aggregate. However, Republicans Blake Masters of Arizona and Herschel Walker of Georgia are polling behind their Democratic rivals in their respective Senate contests.

Walker has been rocked by a recent scandal following a bombshell Daily Beast report earlier in the month that he paid and encouraged a woman to have an abortion — an allegation he denies. But the forecast appears to assume that the race will head to a runoff, giving him more time to make up ground.

Masters has long trailed incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), but he appears to have made a little headway in recent polling against him. He is trailing by about 2.5 points, but adjusting for October polls, that gap narrows to 0.7, per RealClearPolitics.

Republicans have rebounded massively in generic congressional polling, now favored over the Democrats by 3.1 points. This is up from where they were in June before the Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization decision that preceded a substantial GOP polling tumble in the metric.

COMMENT:  We stress again that polls are snapshots in time.  The two-week period until the election is a lifetime in politics.  Anything can happen.  There clearly has been a movement toward the GOP, but polling in many individual races is still pretty tight.  Handle these forecasts with care.

October 24, 2022       Permalink

THEY DIDN'T FOLLOW THE SCRIPT, NETWORK ANCHOR IN SERIOUS SHOCK – FROM TOWNHALL.COM: 

A balanced focus group on CBS's "Face the Nation" Sunday morning surely didn't go quite as producers expected when the Democrat and the independent voter both found themselves agreeing with the Republican on key issues, including "woke culture" in schools.

The discussion, moderated by anchor Margaret Brennan, started off pretty tame and predictable, with participants describing the effects of a sputtering economy, inflation, and high gas prices on their own lives. But when the topic turned to raising children in America, even Brennan seemed surprised by the level of agreement.

What are your biggest concerns about raising children in America right now?" Brennan asked John, the self-identified Republican on the panel.

"The whole woke culture affecting our children," John responded. "All these elementary schools and middle schools having woke culture pushed on them from the LGBT plus community for sexual identity and gender. We should be pushing the actual school studies, math, social studies, science. Not, you know, gender studies or sexual identification."

Seemingly hoping for a counterpoint, Brennan next turned to Lashawn, the Democrat, and asked her to "weigh in on this."

"I can also agree with some of his points," Lashawn said. "I say sex education, I feel like some things are brought to the children’s attention, they wouldn’t even think about."

And you have eight kids," said Brennan. "I imagine you have some pretty specific ideas in your mind when you’re speaking about this?"

"Yes, I do. Yes," Lashawn responded. "Children aren’t – you know, they’re really influenced. You can teach them one thing at home, but when they go to school, they’re just as much influenced by their teachers and their surroundings. And we should have more input, the parents, of what we want them to learn."

Stephanie, the independent, stated her agreement with John and Lashawn before citing her own Covid-related school concern.

After a brief discussion about crime and border security concerns, Brennan made a point to note how this focus group has been different from others the network has done.

"Often when we do these focus groups we have people from different party affiliations disagreeing with each other, but I’m hearing all of you echo a lot of the same concerns and agreeing with each other," she said. "None of you are very optimistic about the country right now."

"No," Stephanie replied dryly.

Sure, it's just one focus group. But it also aligns with current polling. With midterm elections quickly approaching, when ordinary people of all political persuasions start agreeing on key conservative issues, it can only mean bad news for Democrats.

COMMENT:  The biggest political story of our time may well be the parents' revolt that was first detected in Virginia, and which allowed Republican Glenn Youngkin to flip the state red and become its governor.  Millions of American parents are fed up with the way their children are manipulated by the school system.  These parents vote, as the Democratic Party of Virginia learned. 

October 24, 2022       Permalink

OCTOBER 23,  2022

BRITAIN HAS A NEW P.M., LOVES AMERICA, HAS A HOUSE IN SANTA MONICA – FROM THE WASHINGTON POST: 

It is a nice coincidence that Rishi Sunak has won the leadership of the Conservative Party, and hence the prime ministership, on the most important day of Diwali, the “festival of light” celebrated by Hindus, along with Sikhs, Jains and some Buddhists. Diwali supposedly marks the triumph of “light over darkness, good over evil, knowledge over ignorance.” It is also associated with wealth and prosperity. In February 2020, Sunak took his oath of office as chancellor of the exchequer holding a copy of the Bhagavad Gita and celebrated Diwali by putting lights outside his official residence at Number 11 Downing Street. He will now be the first Hindu to become UK prime minister. His time in office will hinge on his ability to deliver a reasonable measure of prosperity to a country that is in dire economic straits.

Sunak has a fighting chance of restoring order to the Conservative Party and the UK government. Certainly better than Penny Mordaunt, who dropped out of the race at the very last moment. While popular, she is relatively inexperienced, having only served for a few months in the cabinet as defense secretary. We don’t have to recite the resume of Boris Johnson, a one-man wrecking ball. Perfectly turned out in a suit and narrow tie, Sunak cuts a commanding presence compared to Johnson. Fitting the two men into Max Weber’s equation, Sunak is “ethic of responsibility” made flesh while Johnson is his “ethic of irresponsibility.”

In many ways, Sunak is a completely conventional British prime minister. He was educated at Winchester College (where he was head boy or “Sen. Co. Prae” in the idiosyncratic language of that institution) followed by Lincoln College, Oxford where he read PPE (that is, received a degree in philosophy, politics and economics, the staple subject or aspiring politicians and civil servants). He is inordinately fond of football. If the naughtiest thing that Theresa May did while growing up was to run through a field of wheat, the naughtiest thing that Sunak did as a schoolboy was to smuggle a handheld television into the school so that he did not miss any key Euro 96 matches. On his 18th birthday, he received a card signed by the entire squad of his favorite team, Southampton, a gift that became one of his most prized possessions.

COMMENT:  Read the whole thing.  Fascinating.  He will have to wait a while for us to have a Republican president, but the two will get on famously.

October 23, 2022       Permalink

THE RUSSKIES ARE BACK – FROM FOX: 

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke with his Russian counterpart for the second time in three days on Sunday as Moscow claims that Ukraine is planning to use a "dirty" bomb.

"Secretary Austin rejected any pretext for Russian escalation and reaffirmed the value of continued communication amid Russia’s unlawful and unjustified war against Ukraine," a Pentagon readout of Sunday's call said.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu also spoke to defense officials from Britain, France and Turkey over the weekend to voice concerns about "possible Ukrainian provocations involving a ‘dirty bomb,’" which is an explosive that is designed to spread radioactive material over a large area.

The U.S., France, and the United Kingdom issued a joint statement on Sunday evening saying that they "remain committed to continue supporting Ukraine’s efforts to defend its territory for as long as it takes."

"Our countries made clear that we all reject Russia’s transparently false allegations that Ukraine is preparing to use a dirty bomb on its own territory," the countries said in a joint statement. "The world would see through any attempt to use this allegation as a pretext for escalation. We further reject any pretext for escalation by Russia."

U.K. Defense Minister Ben Wallace "refuted" claims that Ukraine was planning actions to escalate the war with the help of Western countries, British officials said.

A readout from the French Ministry of Defense said that the situation in Ukraine "is rapidly deteriorating" and "trending towards further uncontrolled escalation."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the "world should react in the toughest possible way" to any escalations by the Russian side. 

"When today the Russian minister of defense organizes a phone carousel and calls foreign ministers with stories about the so-called 'dirty' nuclear bomb, everyone understands everything well," Zelenskyy said in a video address.

"If Russia calls and says that Ukraine is allegedly preparing something, it means one thing: Russia has already prepared all this."

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called the "dirty bomb" claims "as absurd as they are dangerous," writing that "Russians often accuse others of what they plan themselves."

COMMENT:  We have an election in two weeks, and we're focused on it.  But we must not avert our eyes from the war in Ukraine, the largest European land war since World War II.  We can get sucked into a situation for which we're not prepared and which might not ha

ve the full backing of the American people.

October 23, 2022       Permalink