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OCTOBER 16-17,  2022

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE

CULPRITS OF THE YEAR:  The Washington Free Beacon publishes its list of the Democratic Party's leading scapegoats, those who will be given the blame if things really go bad on election day.  Drumroll please.  They are 10) Vladimir Putin, 9) the Saudis, 8) the Federal Reserve, 7) the Lincoln Project, 6) President Biden, 5) white women, 4) the media, 3) "Hispanic white supremacists," 2) "Jim Crow 2.0," 1) the voters.  Please note that "us and our dumb ideas" never appears on the list.  Who would the next five Democratic scapeg oats be?  I would nominate 1) mothers, 2) people who fly Economy, 3) men who have Super Bowl parties, 4) gas station attendants, and 5) people who've read the Bill of Rights.  Any suggestions from readers?

October 16-17, 2022       Permalink

THE VOTERS:  We are three weeks from the midterms.  Polling organizations are churning out numbers, but they're also studying the electorate for trends.  And one trend that's been detected may have historic political significance.  Women appear to be drifting away from the Democratic Party.  From Fox: 

Economic concerns and "intense" disapproval of President Biden are giving Republicans an edge with independent voters in the  upcoming election, according to recent polling from The New York Times. 

A NYT/Siena College poll found independent female voters in particular swung dramatically to the right in the past month, despite Democrats' focus on abortion rights.  

"In September, they favored Democrats by 14 points. Now, independent women backed Republicans by 18 points— a striking swing given the polarization of the American electorate and how intensely Democrats have focused on that group and on the threat Republicans pose to abortion rights," the paper reported.

The Times noted that was because the economy was "a far more potent political issue in 2022 than abortion," and a majority of voters trusted Republicans to handle it.

Reinforcing this point, the Times talked to Democrat women who were voting Republican this fall. Mortgage loan officer Robin Ackerman, 37, said she was switching because she felt the GOP was "more geared towards business."

Despite strongly disagreeing with the Supreme Court's Dobbs ruling that overturned Roe v. Wade, she said it wasn't going to influence her vote.

"But that doesn’t really have a lot to do with my decision… I’m more worried about other things," she told the outlet.

Another Democrat, Gerard Lamoureux, is also looking to the GOP to solve her concerns about rising prices.

"It’s all about cost," the 51-year-old Democratic retiree in Newtown, Conn., told the paper. He added, "The price of gas and groceries are through the roof. And I want to eat healthy, but it’s cheaper for me to go to McDonald’s and get a little meal than it is to cook dinner." 

COMMENT:  That's good news, if true.  The "if" is important.  The sense we're getting is that most indicators are turning in favor of Republicans.  But remember that these are overall impressions.  Voters will actually be voting in individual races, where the attractiveness of the candidate may outweigh any issue.  Midterms often produce surprises.

Fight any signs of overconfidence.  We have vaccines against that.  Fight as if we're 20 points behind.

October 16-17, 2022     Permalink 

THE REAL COLLEGE SCANDAL:  Mediocrity, not lack of equity, is what will kill us.  From Alan Dershowitz in Newsweek: 

The decision of New York University not to renew the contract of one of the most distinguished professors of organic chemistry is a sign of the times. Academic standards in general have been consistently lowered over the past several decades. That should come as no surprise, because standards for admission to colleges and universities have been lowered as well. To the extent that meritocracy is replaced by other factors, such as identity politics, the standards will continue to diminish.

It is not surprising that universities will have to lower academic standards for performance if they lower academic standards for admission. It would be unfair to admit some students on lower academic admissions standards and then impose historic performance standards on them. That would make it difficult for them to compete against students who had to meet more rigorous standards for admission. This won't be as obvious in subjects like political science where all ideas are created equal and are judged as much by the identity of the student as by content.

But it will be obvious in courses like organic chemistry where identity politics play no role in grading. That is why some—but by no means most—of Professor Maitland Jones Jr.'s students petitioned against him, and why his contract was not renewed.

By that criteria Nobel prize winning scientists would not be hired if they demanded high performance from their students.

But what about the students who can't meet the high standards of the most accomplished teachers? Should they be prevented from being admitted to medical school by receiving B- or C+ in a hard course? Perhaps there should be two sections of organic chemistry: one that is highly demanding; and one less so. In that way the best students would not suffer from a reduction in standards, while the less qualified ones would get their B+ and A- grades. But medical schools would know which section the applicant chose and would prefer the student from the more demanding section. That is as it should be. We want doctors who have excelled by the hardest standards.

COMMENT:  Read the rest.  It's well worth it.  Dershowitz is one of our leading public intellectuals.  A liberal, he has taken substantial abuse for calling out the excesses of the left.  During his academic career he was often labeled "the smartest man at Harvard," and for good reason.

It is time for a serious national conversation about education, how we define it and what we expect from educational institutions and students.  We've had such national discussions in the past, and they've been useful.  Right now, strangled by wokeness, America's educational establishment is heading for disaster.

October 16-17, 2022       Permalink

THE ECONOMIC REALITY:  Inflation plus recession are hitting Americans hard.  The proof is there.  From the New York Post: 

Have you taken a peek at the balance in your 401(k) retirement accounts lately? Here’s our advice: Don’t bother. It will ruin your whole day, week and month.

Here’s why: We’ve now had seven straight months of 8%+ inflation. A year ago we were assured by the White House economic wizards that these rapid price increases in everything from groceries, to rental cars, to gasoline at the pump, to health insurance, were merely “transitory.” Whoops.

The most immediate sticker shock from Bidenflation, of course, has been to shrink real take-home paychecks of workers. We have calculated that over the past 20 months, this rise in consumer prices over wages means that the average family in America has lost nearly $6,000 in purchasing power. This from the Lunch Bucket Joe president who promised to help boost the incomes of the middle class. When, exactly?

But this pay-cut effect on family incomes is only part of the curse of runaway inflation.

We’ve just completed an analysis of how the highest inflation rate in almost 40 years has impacted the retirement funds of ordinary Americans. Here is what we found.

Not surprisingly, since President Biden took office, monthly savings have collapsed, falling 83%. (We could never understand how Biden could say with a straight face that Americans are saving more. His “transformation” of the US economy has had just the opposite effect.) Many millions of Americans who are living paycheck to paycheck just don’t have the money after paying the inflated bills to save much.

But to add insult to injury, even what has been already saved and invested by older Americans over past years and even over several decades has been erased from these accounts.

Thanks to the thief of inflation.

COMMENT:  And if we go into a full recession, things can get much worse.  People can turn desperate, leading to an ugly, tense, and even more violent society. 

Three weeks from today, Americans will decide which party in Congress they prefer in this difficult time.

October 16-17, 2022       Permalink

IRAN HEATS THINGS UP:  A dangerous step, possibly timed to coincide with our midterms, when American eyes are turned inward.  From AFP:

Iran is planning to ship missiles and drones to boost Russia’s dwindling supplies amid their invasion of Ukraine, according to a US media report on Sunday.

Citing two unnamed officials from a US-allied country who had been briefed on the matter, The Washington Post reported that Iran is preparing its first delivery of short-range ballistic missiles to Russia during the war, which will include Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar missiles, capable of reaching targets 300 and 700 kilometers away, respectively.

Iran is also getting ready to supply additional unmanned aerial vehicles, including “dozens” of Mohajer-6s, and “kamikaze” drones known as the Shahed-136, which carry explosives and crash into targets at a distance of up to 2,400 kilometers.

The briefing was shared with US and Ukrainian officials, according to the newspaper. US intelligence agencies, Iran and Russia did not comment on the report.

The same sources told The Washington Post in August that Iran was beginning to provide the Mohajer-6 and Shahed-136 to Russia.

Since then, Ukraine has provided evidence that Iranian-made drones — which appeared to be repainted and given Russian names — have been used in strikes across the country by Russia. US defense officials have also publicly confirmed the use of Iranian drones by Russia, and that Ukrainian forces have successfully shot down some of the UAVs.

COMMENT:  Obviously, a significant escalation.  It's hard to see how Washington can avoid increasing American aid to Ukraine, and other nations may well join in.  Nothing is moving the region toward peace.  We worry that we can drift into unintended combat.

Biden should be addressing the nation, or even a joint session of Congress, before we get in any deeper.  He needs public opinion behind him on this.

October 16-17, 2022     Permalink 

OCTOBER 15,  2022

THE POWDER KEG:  It is easy, in the last weeks of an election campaign, to avert our eyes from what is going on around the world.  But the world is not pausing for our vote.  What happens in Iran or Ukraine today could lead to the drafting of a boy in Des Moines tomorrow.   

Iran is in revolt.  It is one of the most important countries in the world, yet our press shows minimal interest in its fate.  Terrible.  From Reuters:

Protesters across Iran defied a nearly month-long crackdown on Saturday, activists said, chanting in the streets and in universities against the country’s clerical leaders in a sustained wave of anger at the death of Mahsa Amini.

The protests sweeping Iran since Amini – a 22-year-old woman from the country’s Kurdish region – died on Sept. 16 while being held for “inappropriate attire” pose one of the most serious challenges to the Islamic Republic since the 1979 revolution.

Although the unrest does not appear close to toppling the system, the protests have widened into strikes that have closed shops and businesses, touched the vital energy sector and inspired brazen acts of dissent against Iran’s religious rule.

A video posted by the Norway-based organization Iran Human Rights purported to show protests in the northeastern city of Mashhad, Iran’s second most populous city, with demonstrators chanting “Clerics get lost” and drivers honking their horns.

Videos posted by the group showed a strike by shopkeepers in the northwestern Kurdish city of Saqez – Amini’s home town – and female high school students chanting “Woman, Life, Freedom” on the streets of Sanandaj, the capital of Kurdistan province.

Protests were also reported in Isfahan, in central Iran, and in the southeast of the country.

Reuters could not independently verify the videos. Phone and internet services in Iran have been frequently disrupted over the last month and internet watchdog NetBlocks reported “a new major disruption” shortly before Saturday’s protests began.

Amini died in custody after she was detained by morality police for violating strict religious regulations requiring women to be modestly dressed.

Human rights groups say more than 200 people have been killed in the crackdown nationwide, including teenage girls whose deaths have become a rallying cry for more demonstrations demanding the downfall of the Islamic Republic.

Protesters called on Saturday for demonstrations in the northwestern city of Ardabil over the death of Asra Panahi, a teenage girl from the Azeri ethnic minority who activists say was beaten to death by security forces.

COMMENT:  Women are central to the protests, and yet "women's groups" in the West are silent.  No rallies in support of Iranian women.  No demands directed at the Iranian government.  And no stories in the press on why our women's groups are so indifferent.  I suspect we're seeing that many women's groups are more interested in Marxism than in Feminism.

The Biden administration has given only a few words of support to the protesters, following the disgraceful example set by Barack Obama when a revolt erupted in Iran in 2009. We get the feeling that the Democratic foreign policy establishment sees freedom fighters as annoyances, impediments to their dream of an Iranian-American alliance, which is a fantasy only slightly less absurd than defunding the police.

October 15, 2022       Permalink

THIS IS A REAL WARNING SIGN:  Never underestimate the power of an issue that gets into the gut of the American family.  From PJ Media: 

As we’ve previously noted, nearly 70% of likely 2022 voters say that the high price of groceries is influencing their motivation to vote. This spells doom for Joe Biden and the Democrats in November.

However, Bidenflation will not only influence voters’ decisions in November. It will also, regrettably, have an effect on the Thanksgiving dinner. More than a third of Americans, according to a survey by Personal Capital, will be eating less at Thanksgiving this year, with 88% of Americans planning to eliminate at least one dish from their traditional Thanksgiving spread in an effort to save money. But, as Personal Capital notes, “with financial strain and tightened budgets, the easiest way to save money this Thanksgiving may be to skip it altogether.”

In 2020, an Ipsos survey found that nine out of ten Americans planned to participate in Thanksgiving activities, but according to Personal Capital’s survey, 1 in 4 Americans is planning to skip Thanksgiving this year to save money.

While many are cutting costs by not celebrating Thanksgiving at all, others are slashing expenses in other ways. “Many of this year’s Thanksgiving hosts are keeping things simple and affordable by sharing the load,” explains Personal Capital. “Over half of respondents planned to keep gatherings small, make fewer dishes, and ask guests to bring something to the table. Another 42% were willing to ask guests to pitch in money for the meal.”

Younger generations are more likely to use all four methods, while older generations are less likely to use any of them.

COMMENT:   A reduced Thanksgiving?  No Thanksgiving?  Please recall that in the old days of the big-city political machines, the local politicians would give free Thanksgiving turkeys to their poor constituents.  It meant everything to these people.  They could have a Thanksgiving. And they knew who to thank at the polls.

Flash forward to today.  Economic conditions are deteriorating.  The squeeze will be felt at the Thanksgiving Day table.  By families.  By voters.  The 2024 presidential election is only two years away.

October 15, 2022       Permalink