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OCTOBER 15,  2022

THE POWDER KEG:  It is easy, in the last weeks of an election campaign, to avert our eyes from what is going on around the world.  But the world is not pausing for our vote.  What happens in Iran or Ukraine today could lead to the drafting of a boy in Des Moines tomorrow.   

Iran is in revolt.  It is one of the most important countries in the world, yet our press shows minimal interest in its fate.  Terrible.  From Reuters:

Protesters across Iran defied a nearly month-long crackdown on Saturday, activists said, chanting in the streets and in universities against the country’s clerical leaders in a sustained wave of anger at the death of Mahsa Amini.

The protests sweeping Iran since Amini – a 22-year-old woman from the country’s Kurdish region – died on Sept. 16 while being held for “inappropriate attire” pose one of the most serious challenges to the Islamic Republic since the 1979 revolution.

Although the unrest does not appear close to toppling the system, the protests have widened into strikes that have closed shops and businesses, touched the vital energy sector and inspired brazen acts of dissent against Iran’s religious rule.

A video posted by the Norway-based organization Iran Human Rights purported to show protests in the northeastern city of Mashhad, Iran’s second most populous city, with demonstrators chanting “Clerics get lost” and drivers honking their horns.

Videos posted by the group showed a strike by shopkeepers in the northwestern Kurdish city of Saqez – Amini’s home town – and female high school students chanting “Woman, Life, Freedom” on the streets of Sanandaj, the capital of Kurdistan province.

Protests were also reported in Isfahan, in central Iran, and in the southeast of the country.

Reuters could not independently verify the videos. Phone and internet services in Iran have been frequently disrupted over the last month and internet watchdog NetBlocks reported “a new major disruption” shortly before Saturday’s protests began.

Amini died in custody after she was detained by morality police for violating strict religious regulations requiring women to be modestly dressed.

Human rights groups say more than 200 people have been killed in the crackdown nationwide, including teenage girls whose deaths have become a rallying cry for more demonstrations demanding the downfall of the Islamic Republic.

Protesters called on Saturday for demonstrations in the northwestern city of Ardabil over the death of Asra Panahi, a teenage girl from the Azeri ethnic minority who activists say was beaten to death by security forces.

COMMENT:  Women are central to the protests, and yet "women's groups" in the West are silent.  No rallies in support of Iranian women.  No demands directed at the Iranian government.  And no stories in the press on why our women's groups are so indifferent.  I suspect we're seeing that many women's groups are more interested in Marxism than in Feminism.

The Biden administration has given only a few words of support to the protesters, following the disgraceful example set by Barack Obama when a revolt erupted in Iran in 2009. We get the feeling that the Democratic foreign policy establishment sees freedom fighters as annoyances, impediments to their dream of an Iranian-American alliance, which is a fantasy only slightly less absurd than defunding the police.

October 15, 2022       Permalink

THIS IS A REAL WARNING SIGN:  Never underestimate the power of an issue that gets into the gut of the American family.  From PJ Media: 

As we’ve previously noted, nearly 70% of likely 2022 voters say that the high price of groceries is influencing their motivation to vote. This spells doom for Joe Biden and the Democrats in November.

However, Bidenflation will not only influence voters’ decisions in November. It will also, regrettably, have an effect on the Thanksgiving dinner. More than a third of Americans, according to a survey by Personal Capital, will be eating less at Thanksgiving this year, with 88% of Americans planning to eliminate at least one dish from their traditional Thanksgiving spread in an effort to save money. But, as Personal Capital notes, “with financial strain and tightened budgets, the easiest way to save money this Thanksgiving may be to skip it altogether.”

In 2020, an Ipsos survey found that nine out of ten Americans planned to participate in Thanksgiving activities, but according to Personal Capital’s survey, 1 in 4 Americans is planning to skip Thanksgiving this year to save money.

While many are cutting costs by not celebrating Thanksgiving at all, others are slashing expenses in other ways. “Many of this year’s Thanksgiving hosts are keeping things simple and affordable by sharing the load,” explains Personal Capital. “Over half of respondents planned to keep gatherings small, make fewer dishes, and ask guests to bring something to the table. Another 42% were willing to ask guests to pitch in money for the meal.”

Younger generations are more likely to use all four methods, while older generations are less likely to use any of them.

COMMENT:   A reduced Thanksgiving?  No Thanksgiving?  Please recall that in the old days of the big-city political machines, the local politicians would give free Thanksgiving turkeys to their poor constituents.  It meant everything to these people.  They could have a Thanksgiving. And they knew who to thank at the polls.

Flash forward to today.  Economic conditions are deteriorating.  The squeeze will be felt at the Thanksgiving Day table.  By families.  By voters.  The 2024 presidential election is only two years away.

October 15, 2022       Permalink

OCTOBER 13-14, 2022

WE HOPE IT'S TRUE:  Late polling appears to confirm the belief that the Republican vote is surging.  Harvard-Harris has Republicans up by six points over Democrats in the generic ballot.  Trafalgar has the GOP up five.  Rasmussen has Republicans up seven.  All three polls were taken within the last week. 

If reasonably accurate, those polls should translate into Republicans taking back the House and probably winning the Senate, although by a narrow margin.

But we caution – a surge can end or even be reversed.  The election is three and a half weeks away, an eternity in politics.  Be cautious about reading polls.  However, it's nice to be able to smile for a change.

But, if there is a true Republican surge, what caused it?  I submit that it began when two things happened – first, the GOP started campaigning seriously and aggressively, with its candidates emphasizing the issues Americans care about most – inflation and crime.  Democrats really have not much to say.  After all, they're responsible for both.

Second, Republicans, through House leader Kevin McCarthy,  launched their "Commitment to America," spelling out exactly what the GOP would do if given the power.  It echoes the famous "Contract With America" issued by Republican Minority Whip Newt Gingrich in time for the 1994 midterms.  Many observers believe that the Contract's pledge of direct, specific action contributed importantly to Republican gains.  The Commitment to America is here. 

In the last weeks of the campaign Republicans must bear down harder than ever before – with an emphasis on getting out the vote.  This will be a turnout election.   Many races are close, and turnout leads to victory.  In addition, the Commitment to America should be in every mailbox.  Americans do care.  They do read.  They want to know what a candidate will actually do, not just say.

The Dems are not going to give this up.  They believe they are better people, with an automatic right to be in control.  And they have the mainstream press on their side. 

The best political instruction I've ever heard is this:  Always fight as if you're 20 points behind.

That is an order.

October 13-14, 2022       Permalink 

HAS OUR SCHOOL SYSTEM ACCEPTED PERMANENT MEDIOCRITY?  LOOKS LIKE IT:  Scores go down, down, and down.  And no one seems to care.  From AP:

PHOENIX (AP) — Scores on the ACT college admissions test by this year’s high school graduates hit their lowest point in more than 30 years — the latest evidence of the enormity of learning disruption during the pandemic.

The class of 2022′s average ACT composite score was 19.8 out of 36, marking the first time since 1991 that the average score was below 20. What’s more, an increasing number of high school students failed to meet any of the subject-area benchmarks set by the ACT — showing a decline in preparedness for college-level coursework.

The test scores, made public in a report Wednesday, show 42% of ACT-tested graduates in the class of 2022 met none of the subject benchmarks in English, reading, science and math, which are indicators of how well students are expected to perform in corresponding college courses.

In comparison, 38% of test takers in 2021 failed to meet any of the benchmarks.

“Academic preparedness is where we are seeing the decline,” said Rose Babington, senior director for state partnerships for the ACT. “Every time we see ACT test scores, we are talking about skills and standards, and the prediction of students to be successful and to know the really important information to succeed and persist through their first year of college courses.”

ACT scores have declined steadily in recent years. Still, “the magnitude of the declines this year is particularly alarming,” ACT CEO Janet Godwin said in a statement. “We see rapidly growing numbers of seniors leaving high school without meeting college-readiness benchmarks in any of the subjects we measure.”

The results offer a lens into systemic inequities in education, in place well before the pandemic shuttered schools and colleges temporarily waived testing requirements. For example, students without access to rigorous high school curriculum suffered more setbacks during pandemic disruptions, Babington said. Those students are from rural areas, come from low-income families and are often students of color.

The number of students taking the ACT has declined 30% since 2018, as graduates increasingly forgo college and some universities no longer require admissions tests. But participation plunged 37% among Black students, with 154,000 taking the test this year.

COMMENT:  You may be sure that the woke crowd in education will respond to these depressing numbers by demanding a lowering of standards, claiming that high standards are merely a means by which white supremacists keep people of color down.  They will get a receptive audience.  Taxpayer checks will be written, and there will be no improvement.

Our foreign enemies will be amused.

October 13, 2022       Permalink