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NOVEMBER 5-6,  2022

THE DEMS REALLY MESSED UP:  So true, so true.  We feel so bad for them (choke).  From RealClearPolitics: 

Democratic Pollster Mark Penn said this week on "FOX News Sunday" that the Democratic Party has denied the impact of inflation ahead of the 2022 midterm elections by focusing all its energy on warning about "threats to democracy."

MARK PENN: "[Inflation] is the number one issue in the country, and the fascinating thing to me is that the Democrats have said 'threat to democracy' is really what they are running this campaign on.

"I think the Biden administration did 'threat to democracy,' they did student loans, they did marijuana pardons, and millions of [gallons] of gas out of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. They did not confront these issues directly in a meaningful way, they became 'inflation deniers,' and I think that was really a stupid strategy. And we will see whether or not I'm right and that was probably one of the worst strategies I've ever seen in a midterm, or they were right, they had tough issues, and decided to completely avoid them."

COMMENT:  Both right.  They had tough issues, and showed their contempt for the voters by ignoring their legitimate concerns.  The Democratic Party has evolved into an organization that sneers at the very people it claims to represent. It's also an organization that believes democracy exists only when they win.

One of these days the "progressive" Democrats will realize that we're electing a real government, not a student government.  They must take their diplomas off the wall for a time, and start looking out the window.  There's a country down there. 

NOTE:  Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas, one of the best Republican voices in the Senate, has announced that he will not be a presidential candidate in 2024.  I would have loved to see him run.  He elevates any political conversation.  This is a man who gave up a lucrative law career to join the Army and serve in the Mideast.  After his service he entered elective politics and has performed with distinction.  Maybe 2028, Tom.

NOTE TO READERS:  Please note, when looking at Senate numbers, that the GOP has two prospective renegades in its ranks, Mitt Romney of Utah and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska.  They could cause their party trouble in closely contested legislative battles, or could help the Democrats confirm nominated judges.  A simple majority of Republicans in the Senate is not enough to guarantee effective control.   

BULLETIN:  On Monday 1:24 a.m. ET:  RCP has revised its latest estimates, now showing a projected Senate of 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats, barely enough to assure a Republican majority.  That is a loss of one GOP seat since yesterday morning's prediction.  RCP has also revised its House prediction, now showing 227 Republicans and 174 Democrats.   Remember that these are only polling estimates. 

MIDTERM LATEST:  Only days to go until Tuesday's midterms.  We follow the RealClearPolitics (RCP) averages every day, about the best source out there for current election statistics.  They study a number of polls to come up with their reports.

Current RCP estimates for the House:  174 Democrats, 228 Republicans, 33 toss-ups.  The Republican gain, RCP projects, will be between 15 and 48 seats, with an average gain of 31-32.  (A House majority is currently 218 votes.)

Current RCP estimates for the US Senate:  44 Democrats, 48 Republicans, 8 toss-ups.    (A Senate majority is 51 votes.) Projected GOP gain is 4 seats, resulting in a Senate of 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats.

We stress that these are projections based on current polling.

One of the most watched races is not for Congress but for the governorship of New York, my state, which, for some reason, remains politically significant, despite the fact that large numbers of people here have problems finding their birth certificates.  New York is in terrible shape, with more people leaving than arriving.  We are governed by Kathy Hochul, whom no one ever heard of before she, as lieutenant governor, became governor when Andrew Cuomo was forced out of the job by scandals. 

The general belief in politics is that New York is a permanent blue state, and that no Republicans need apply.   Indeed, Minimum Governor Hochul actually invited Republicans to leave New York and move to Florida.  The dynamic Republican Party here puts up candidates who write their concession speeches before the elections are held. 

But conditions are bad, and in walked Republican Congressman Lee Zeldin to run for the governorship, and actually try to win it.  Other local Republicans gasped in shock.   No one gave Zeldin a chance.  But Zeldin is a tireless campaigner, and now is within single-digit range of the sitting Hochul.  The odds are still against him, and only one poll shows Zeldin with any kind of lead.  But you never know.  Real enthusiasm shows up on election day.  We are hoping.   

November 5-6, 2022       Permalink  

NOVEMBER 4,  2022

COMMON SENSE:  Suburban women are flocking to the Republicans.  From the New York Post: 

Something’s happening in the suburbs. On the one hand, polls indicate that white suburban women are shifting — hard — toward the Republican Party. On the other, lots more parents are homeschooling their kids, post-pandemic. These phenomena are not unrelated.

Suburban women are shifting Republican — by 27 points, a Wall Street Journal poll found, with 74% saying the country’s headed in the wrong direction — because the Democrats have let them down.

When people complain about taxes, the usual response is something along the lines of “What, you don’t want police and schools?”

Of course, as my father-in-law once said, when they raise taxes they tell you it’s for teachers and police, but when they get the money it goes to buy a fancy leather chair for some guy you never heard of in an office downtown.

But if you’re going to justify the whole of government by invoking police and schools, maybe it would be a good idea to . . . actually provide police and schools. And Democrats across the nation went out of their way not to deliver either.

To hear Democratic candidates, and the party’s media cheerleaders, talk now, nobody ever supported defunding the police. But, of course, Democrats across the board did just that, and GOP candidates, and honest media, have been replaying the video.

In a spasm of post-George Floyd mass hysteria, the political system, and in particular the governments of Democratic-run cities, made drastic cutbacks in police protection, installed revolving-door, no-bail arraignment systems and encouraged the proliferation of homeless encampments and open-air drug markets in many areas.

Unsurprisingly, the result was surging crime. Around America, downtown businesses have closed, and people — especially women — have felt unsafe in their own neighborhoods.

Crime is now a major issue with the electorate, and even among black voters, the alleged beneficiaries of police defunding, only 17% support defunding the police, per a recent Grio/Kaiser Family Foundation poll.

Allowed to run things their way, Democrats have ruined many of America’s cities, from New York to Chicago to Baltimore to Los Angeles and San Francisco, among many others.

And the crime has spilled out into the suburbs.

Nor is it like taxes went down when police were defunded; the money just got diverted into the pockets of various Democratic interest groups.

Schools didn’t do any better. Education policy (and even at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) during the COVID pandemic was essentially run by the teachers' unions.

This year, Senate Republicans outlined the improper and extensive influence teachers unions, particularly the American Federation of Teachers, wielded over the government’s COVID policies on schools. Union officials actually wrote key portions of Team Biden’s school-opening guidance.

COMMENT:  Read the whole thing.  It pretty much sums up the condition of the country, and the GOP's answer to it.  We will see Tuesday night whether the American people accept the answer.

November 4, 2022       Permalink

YIKES!  ET TU, COLORADO?  Well, maybe.  The once sure-thing re-election of Democratic Senator Michael Bennet of Colorado has become less sure and more of an unknown thing.  Never expected this.  From Fox: 

Real Clear Politics has shifted its prediction of a hotly contested Senate race in Colorado from leaning toward Democratic victory to a "toss up" as several high profile races across the country continue to tighten with Republicans hoping to take back control of the chamber next week.

On its updated election prediction map, Real Clear Politics now shows the race between Democratic incumbent Sen. Michael Bennet and his challenger, Republican construction magnate Joe O’Dea, is classified as a "toss up" after previously being viewed as "Leans Dem."

"Voters are angry and they know who caused the problem — they’re fed up and eager for change," Joshua Marin-Mora, deputy press secretary for the O’Dea campaign, posted on Twitter in response to the news on Friday.

"When you're talking about the issues that affect working Coloradans, that's what's moving the needle," O'Dea told Fox News Digital in a statement. "We're talking about record inflation, record crime, and diesel that's over $5 a gallon. That's what matters to working Americans, and that's why we're going to win on Tuesday."

The Real Clear Politics average of Colorado polls shows Bennet with a lead of 5.3% which is far tighter than polls in August and September that showed Bennet up by double digits.

O’Dea has targeted Bennet on his ties to President Biden’s economy as voters across the country have told pollsters that inflation is their main concern heading into the midterm elections. Additionally, O’Dea has focused on illegal immigration, including during a visit to the southern border this week when he accused Democrats of "doing nothing" to address the ongoing migrant crisis.

Bennet has pushed back on O’Dea’s characterization of his record and called the Republican challenger a "liar" in a recent debate.

COMMENT:  O'Dea is an anti-Trump Republican, and his dramatic rise thus comes without a Trump endorsement.  I still think it's a long shot for O'Dea, but the pattern of his progress mirrors that of many other Republicans:  Once voters heard the Republican side, an impressive number signed on, especially in the last two months.  Republicans have run a good, issues-based campaign, and they've listened to the voters.  They also are building an incredible presidential bench for the 2024 campaign.   Donald Trump's renomination is far from assured.

Compare please to the Democratic Party.  Who have they got for president in 2024?  I hear silence.  Oh wait, someone just said Hillary Clinton.

November 4, 2022       Permalink