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I appeared on Silvio Canto Jr's talk show from Dallas.  It's here.

NOVEMBER 29,  2022

ECONOMIC STRESS:  It isn't affecting everyone equally, but no one will call this an economic boom, or even a recovery.  From CBS News:

American consumers are entering the holiday season feeling gloomier about the economy amid ongoing high inflation and layoffs in the tech sector, depressing U.S. consumer confidence for the second straight month in November. 

The Conference Board reported Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell to 100.2 this month, down from 102.2 in October. November's figure is the lowest since July, and likely reflected an uptick in gas prices earlier this fall, said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board. 

Gas prices have since reversed and fell to $3.52 a gallon, on average, nationwide on Tuesday, according to AAA. That's down from $3.76 a month ago.

The data indicates Americans are taking a more gloomy view about the economy. Before the pandemic, the index regularly topped 120. With the cost of food, rent, clothing, and other essentials surging, inflation is near the worst in four decades, increasing 7.7% in October from a year earlier.

"Consumers' increased pessimism is consistent with our view that consumer spending and the broader economy are downshifting to a much slower growth path amid high inflation, rapidly rising interest rates and financial market volatility," noted Oxford Economics U.S. economist Gurleen Chadha in a Tuesday research note. 

Despite the negative outlook, however, most Americans — particularly those with higher incomes — are still spending, fueling a generally healthy start to the winter holiday shopping season last weekend.

The latest readings show a "tale of two incomes," according to Jeffrey Roach, Chief Economist for LPL Financial, in an email. 

"Inflation acutely impacts lower income households while upper income households feel less of the pain. Consumer confidence rose in November for those making $50,000 or more," he noted. 

The business research group's present situation index — which measures consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions — dropped slightly to 137.4 from 138.7 in October.

COMMENT:  Whether we like it of not, the 2024 presidential campaigns will start soon, and the economy will be the key.  But Republicans must approach the subject with care.  It will not be enough to point to Biden's failures.  Republicans must tell voters what they will do, economically, if elected.  That element of a "program" or a "contract with America" was largely missing this past fall.

November 29, 2022       Permalink

NOVEMBER 28,  2022

RETURNING TO WALT?   Another sign that some people in show business are leading a return to common sense.  The campaign will work if respect is shown for the audience.  From Fox Business: 

Newly reinstated Disney CEO Bob Iger said he wants to lead an effort to "quiet things down" when it comes to the recent cultural and political controversies that have engulfed the company.

Manhattan Institute senior fellow Chris Rufo shared an exclusive video he obtained of the Disney CEO speaking to employees at a town hall, where he called for "respect" for the audience and no "disdain" of their views.

When asked a virtual question by Disney staff about "staying out of making political statements," Iger at first insisted there was a misconception about the company, that some issues "have been branded political," and that he doesn’t necessarily agree those issues are political. 

"Do I like the company being embroiled in controversy? Of course not. It can be distracting, and it can have a negative impact on the company. And to the extent that I can work to kind of quiet things down, I’m going to do that," he added. 

Another town hall question was about the Florida Parental Rights in Education Act, which critics have dubbed it the "don’t say gay" law. Iger answered cautiously, noting, "When you tell stories, there’s a delicate balance. You’re talking to an audience, but it’s also important to listen to an audience. It's important to have respect for the people you are serving, that you are trying to reach and not have disdain from." 

"We’re not going to make everyone happy all the time, and we’re not going to try to. We’re certainly not going to lessen our core values in order to make everyone happy all the time," Iger said. 

Last week, former CEO Bob Chapek was fired by Disney’s board of directors. Chapek replaced Iger in 2020, who ran the company since 2005 and was executive chairman in 2021 until he retired. 

Chapek’s tenure saw the battle with Florida Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis and Florida over the parental rights bill. Chapek criticized the bill, vowing the company would work hard to repeal it. Republicans in the state legislature moved to strip Disney of its self-governing status. According to Rufo, the latest comments by Iger indicate "an important shift. Iger is signaling that Disney is moderating its position in the culture war."

COMMENT:  It's about time.  In the end, the box office will probably determine the fate of many Hollywood companies, if not all.  And the industry is learning that parents don't take kids to the movies to be told how terrible America is.  The industry is also learning that political issues are complex, and that ideological rigidity generally gets you nowhere.

November 28, 2022       Permalink

GOP PUTS SPOTLIGHT ON THE BIDENS:  Control of the House will give the Republicans new power to investigate, and investigate they will.  The public seems to be behind them.  From Daily Mail: 

Plans for Republicans to investigate Hunter Biden's foreign business interests meet with the approval of some 62 percent of likely U.S. voters, according to a poll published on Monday.

The telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports for Miranda Devine, a columnist and author of 'Laptop from Hell' about Biden's computer, found some 42 percent strongly approved of a likely House G.O.P. probe into his overseas deals.

Many Republicans promised investigations of the president's son and his business dealings during the midterm election campaign, in which they took control of the lower chamber.

And Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), who is in expected to chair the House Judiciary Committee, and Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.), in line to take over the Oversight Committee, recently held a news conference laying out their plans for probes. 

The president has long denied any knowledge of his son's foreign dealings - some of which are being investigated by federal authorities. 

But the survey of 1,000 likely U.S. voters on November 22 found that such claims did not get far with the public.

Some 61 percent of voters said they believed it was likely – including 44 percent who said it was 'very likely' – that Joe Biden was at least consulted on his son's business deals and might even have profited.  

The poll found that the public are closely following reports about the president's son

But as might be expected, respondents split along party lines — particularly when the stories go beyond business deals and cover Hunter Biden's laptop.

Eighty-six percent of Republicans think the story about Hunter Biden's abandoned laptop is important, but 56 percent of Democrats say it’s not important. 

Among unaffiliated voters, 62 percent think the laptop story is important and 33 percent believe it is not important. 

Overall, 63 percent of voters believe the story of Hunter's laptop is important, including 41 percent who think it is 'very important.'

COMMENT:  This can't be good for the president, for any exposure of wrongdoing will be magnified because he intends to run again.

We will not have a politically calm 2023.  Besides these new probes, candidates will launch their 2024 presidential campaigns.  And the international situation seems more explosive by the day. 

And Kamala Harris is still one heartbeat away from controlling the nuclear codes.

Any of you have an ideas for having fun?

November 28, 2022       Permalink