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NOVEMBER 16-17,  2022

WE FORGET THIS AT OUR PERIL:  There is a revolt going on in Iran.  It is growing.  It can have a dramatic effect on the future of the region.  And yet, Americans are ignoring it.  From the Jerusalem Post:

Iran is worried that several recent incidents in the country point to a growing chance that the two-month-old protests are becoming dangerously violent.

For the regime, the protests become problematic when the violence spills over and when the protesters are armed.

An article in Iranian pro-Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps media on Thursday indicated that the media narrative, spun from the top levels of government, will now hyper-focus on armed attacks by the protesters. Iran calls these groups “separatists,” a term it generally uses for Kurds, Baloch, Arabs and other minority groups in Iran.

Not only is Iran a diverse country but minority groups may outnumber Persians, meaning that the regime has to balance the fact that it is rooted in the Persian theocratic elites, with the support it needs from minorities.

The largest minority groups are generally concentrated in various periphery regions of Iran; such as Kurds in the northwest, Azeris in the northwest, Balochis in the southeast as well as Arabs in the southwest. There are also populations of Lurs, Turkmen and other groups.

According to reports, gunmen attacked a bazaar in southwest Iran this week. There have also been armed clashes in Zahedan and areas where the Baloch minority are present.

Iran also carried out rocket and drone attacks on Kurdish groups in Iraq.

The regime believes dozens, or even hundreds of Kurdish activists have crossed from Iraq into Iran and that these “separatists” are involved in mobilizing opposition to the regime.

The fact remains that the Kurdish community doesn’t need to mobilize to oppose the regime — the average person does that just fine.

There are a plethora of Kurdish groups that operate in Iraq and among Kurdish Iranian exile groups. These include the PDKI, the PAK, Komala and PJAK. Iran’s regime has lashed out at PDKI, PAK and Komala over the last two months.

Iran’s goal is to neutralize these groups.

However, the shooting attack in southwest Iran in Khuzestan province does not bode well for the regime.

It’s not the first armed attack or clash since the protests began two months ago, but it may be one of the more serious incidents.

The regime believes that extremist groups are behind some of these attacks, such as ISIS. An attack by Islamic State in late October killed 15 people in Iran.

From the regime’s perspective, it is easier to blame ISIS or “separatists” than admit that large numbers of people in Iran detest the regime. Towards this end the regime wants to segment the protesters, using less lethal means against some protests, while beginning a harsh crackdown on others.

However, the shooting attack in southwest Iran in Khuzestan province does not bode well for the regime.

It’s not the first armed attack or clash since the protests began two months ago, but it may be one of the more serious incidents.

The regime believes that extremist groups are behind some of these attacks, such as ISIS. An attack by Islamic State in late October killed 15 people in Iran.

From the regime’s perspective, it is easier to blame ISIS or “separatists” than admit that large numbers of people in Iran detest the regime. Towards this end the regime wants to segment the protesters, using less lethal means against some protests, while beginning a harsh crackdown on others .However, the shooting attack in southwest Iran in Khuzestan province does not bode well for the regime.

It’s not the first armed attack or clash since the protests began two months ago, but it may be one of the more serious incidents.

The regime believes that extremist groups are behind some of these attacks, such as ISIS. An attack by Islamic State in late October killed 15 people in Iran.

From the regime’s perspective, it is easier to blame ISIS or “separatists” than admit that large numbers of people in Iran detest the regime. Towards this end the regime wants to segment the protesters, using less lethal means against some protests, while beginning a harsh crackdown on others.

Some 16,000 protesters have already been detained and several sentenced to death. Meanwhile, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei spoke on Thursday trying to placate minorities; heralding the importance of interethnic partnerships.

It will become more clear in the coming days whether those behind the shooting attack in southwest Iran will carry out more attacks, or if this was a unique event.

COMMENT:  Many of the protests in Iran have been led by women, and yet there is only silence from the "women's" groups in the West.  The hypocrisy just flows. 

And the United States Government, under the leadership of Freedom Fighter Joe Biden and Defender of Women's Rights Kamala Harris, issues minimal reprimands that could fit on a postage stamp.  They're still hoping to turn the radical mullahs into great friends of Washington.

November 17, 2022       Permalink

SAME OLD STORY:  Los Angeles is going right down the tubes.  From Urban Hollywood: 

Congresswoman Karen Bass has made history after winning the race to become the next mayor of Los Angeles.

The announcement came late Wednesday afternoon following the latest vote count, which showed Bass with an insurmountable lead of nearly 50,000 votes over real estate developer Rick Caruso.

Numbers posted online by the Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk’s office showed Bass with 403,427 votes compared to Caruso’s 356,849. That was a difference of 53.06 percent to 46.94 percent.

Caruso led in early vote counts right after election night, but as more mail-in ballots were tallied, Bass pulled ahead.

The Congresswoman had the backing of the White House, former President Barack Obama, both of California’s U.S. senators, and many high-ranking Democrats across the state.

She vowed throughout the campaign that if elected, she would focus on addressing L.A.’s high rent prices and the city’s spiraling homelessness crisis — which saw 1,988 people die on the streets of the L.A. area between April 1, 2020, and March 31, 2021 — according to county officials.

After learning she had won the election, Bass posted a statement on social media vowing to bring change to the city, where the quality of life has deteriorated for many residents in recent years.

“To the people of our city, my message is this: We are going to solve homelessness. We are going to prevent and respond urgently to crime. Our city is no longer going to be unaffordable for working families. And know this — that work has already begun,” she tweeted.

In a follow-up tweet, Bass said she had received a “gracious” call from Caruso and added, “I am honored and humbled that the people have chosen me to be the next mayor of Los Angeles.”

COMMENT:  Oh please, where have we heard those words before?  Karen Bass is an old Castroite, a fan of Fidel, and I doubt if she'll finally find truth.  Los Angeles, city of car agencies, is not exactly a place that pushes mayors to the right.  Expect nothing new, but be happy if she surprises us.

November 16, 2022       Permalink

NOVEMBER 14-15,  2022

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE: 

MISSILES OVER POLAND:  It turns out, according to the United States, that the two missiles that landed in Poland today, killing two civilians, were probably fired, not by Russia as previously feared, but by Ukrainian forces trying to down a Russian missile.  If the U.S. assessment is correct, a major international crisis has been avoided. 

THE ANNOUNCEMENT:  Former President Trump made his formal announcement Tuesday night, throwing himself into the 2024 presidential race.  I had been very dubious about this maneuver, as had been most political commentators.  But I must say that I thought the speech was good, presidential, and lacking the bitterness and viciousness of past Trump rhetoric.   Mr. Trump reviewed what life was like under his administration, comparing it to the present, and the contrast was effective.  The speech was too long, and both CNN and Fox cut away for commentary, but there was nothing there to ridicule.  Impossible to say whether Trump will succeed in his quest.  He has more baggage than American Airlines, but he's also a fighter.  If not Trump, the GOP can draw on a deep bench of superb candidates, led by Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida.  The Dems are not rich with candidates, or issues. 

A GOP HOUSE:  There was no formal pronouncement, and no gong was sounded at the Statue of Liberty, but some news outlets have now called enough open House races for the Republicans to give them the 218 needed for a House majority.  Kevin McCarthy was "elected" Speaker at a meeting of House Republicans today, although the formal election must wait until the new House is sworn in January.  As the majority, House Republicans are expected to launch many investigations into the Biden administration. 

THIRD WORLD NEWS:  Our embarrassment continues.  Foreign nations must be so impressed.  It's a week after the midterm elections and we still don't know officially who will control the House of Representatives.  By contrast, Florida held its elections and delivered a full count of results in one day. 

Now, there may be understandable reluctance by some news organizations to call the still-outstanding races and make Republicans happy.  But the realistic count thus far, in the grown-up world, not the comic-book world, is that Republicans have clearly won 216 of the 218 seats needed for a majority, and that most of the still-to-be-called races are tilting Republican. (Fox now says the GOP has 217.)  I suspect we'll have the full picture by tonight or tomorrow morning, and the GOP will prepare to receive the Speaker's gavel.  It's a Sears Craftsman hammer with a loose head.

Of course, the big show today will be at Mar-a-Lago, Donald Trump's Florida home and headquarters.  He is expected to announce that he's running for president.  I'd be careful about predictions, though.  He has the capacity to tease, and might simply announce that he's forming an exploratory committee to determine whether to run.  The former president must surely be aware that large numbers of Republicans are calling on him to not run, but to step aside and let a new generation of candidates compete for the presidency. 

There are reports that Trump wanted his daughter, Ivanka, to appear on the stage with him, but that she refused.  Only a report.  One current poll among Republicans puts Governor Ron deSantis of Florida ahead of Trump for the presidential nomination. 

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