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I appeared on Silvio Canto Jr's talk show from Dallas.  It's here.

NOVEMBER 7,  2022

LAST DAY OF THE CAMPAIGNS:  The 2022 election campaigns have ended, with no great bombshells, scandals, or accusations.  There was heated speculation that Donald Trump would announce a new run for the presidency on the last night of the campaigns, but he did not.  He simply said he'd make an important statement on November 15th, at Mar-a-Lago.  I doubt if he'll be announcing a new golf tournament.  I think we can safely say that he'll launch his presidential run.  Some will be happy.  Some will not.  But he'll put the spotlight back on himself.

The campaigns just concluded had three identifiable phases.  Phase one, earlier this year, predicted a Republican wave, led by voters angry with the economy and the culture.  Phase two began when the Supreme Court sent Roe v. Wade back to the states, and the Dems thought they finally possessed an issue to exploit.  They had a good run for a while, but, ultimately, the campaigns came back to the things Americans actually care about most – the economy, inflation, crime, and a rotting school system. Democratic gains were largely erased and phase three began about a month ago, with GOP poll numbers returning to "possible red wave" status.

And that is where we are.  Election Day is upon us.  Millions will vote.  The votes will quickly be tabulated, and the TV reporters will give us bulletins starting, maybe, at eight o'clock or so, Eastern time.  But that may only be the beginning.  There are tens of millions of absentee and mail-in ballots out there.  States have different policies on how and when they're counted.  Common lore tells us that Democrats favor the mail-in ballot, whereas Republicans like to show up at the polls.  The Republican nightmare is that the party might have many apparent victories on election night, only see a number of them reversed by the counting of the mail-ins and absentees. 

Or the miscounting.

Joe Stalin once said, approximate quote, "It's not the people who vote that count, it's the people who count the votes."

Will we have, in the coming days, a sequel to the year 2000 presidential mess, where it took weeks for Florida to gets it vote count straight, allowing George W. Bush to defeat Al Gore and become president?

Or will we have a sequel to the 2020 presidential election, where Trump, correctly or incorrectly, wouldn't let go and insisted that the election had been stolen?  

True, this isn't a presidential year, but the same drama can be played out on the state level, possibly affecting control of Congress.  In 2018, lifelong candidate Stacey Abrams lost the governorship election in Georgia by 50,000 votes, and still maintains that she lost only because of voter suppression.  She's back this year, by unpopular demand, running again for governor.  Far behind in the polls, she's insisting, even before the vote count, that there's voter suppression out there.  We await, with no enthusiasm, her third try.

If we're plunged into a number of recounts, or slowdowns due to the counting of absentee and mail ballots, cries of "fraud" will surely be heard in the land, and some of them may be accurate.  Despite ridiculous claims that questioning an election result is an "assault on our democracy," it is in fact a perfectly proper act, demanding that the count be correct.

President Lyndon Johnson's nickname in politics was "Landslide Lyndon."  He got it when competing in 1948 for the Texas Democratic nomination for U.S.  senator.  He won by 87 votes, and no one could figure out exactly where those votes came from. 

It is said – I wasn't there – that Johnson and his aides scoured Mexican-American cemeteries for names to put on ballots, to make them look legitimate.  An aide came to one tombstone, where he couldn't make out the name.  Johnson ordered the aide to give the man a fake name.  After all, he was reported as saying, he had as much right to vote as any of the others.

We'll be blogging throughout the vote count.

November 7, 2022     Permalink

NOVEMBER 5-6,  2022

THE DEMS REALLY MESSED UP:  So true, so true.  We feel so bad for them (choke).  From RealClearPolitics: 

Democratic Pollster Mark Penn said this week on "FOX News Sunday" that the Democratic Party has denied the impact of inflation ahead of the 2022 midterm elections by focusing all its energy on warning about "threats to democracy."

MARK PENN: "[Inflation] is the number one issue in the country, and the fascinating thing to me is that the Democrats have said 'threat to democracy' is really what they are running this campaign on.

"I think the Biden administration did 'threat to democracy,' they did student loans, they did marijuana pardons, and millions of [gallons] of gas out of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. They did not confront these issues directly in a meaningful way, they became 'inflation deniers,' and I think that was really a stupid strategy. And we will see whether or not I'm right and that was probably one of the worst strategies I've ever seen in a midterm, or they were right, they had tough issues, and decided to completely avoid them."

COMMENT:  Both right.  They had tough issues, and showed their contempt for the voters by ignoring their legitimate concerns.  The Democratic Party has evolved into an organization that sneers at the very people it claims to represent. It's also an organization that believes democracy exists only when they win.

One of these days the "progressive" Democrats will realize that we're electing a real government, not a student government.  They must take their diplomas off the wall for a time, and start looking out the window.  There's a country down there. 

NOTE:  Senator Tom Cotton of Arkansas, one of the best Republican voices in the Senate, has announced that he will not be a presidential candidate in 2024.  I would have loved to see him run.  He elevates any political conversation.  This is a man who gave up a lucrative law career to join the Army and serve in the Mideast.  After his service he entered elective politics and has performed with distinction.  Maybe 2028, Tom.

NOTE TO READERS:  Please note, when looking at Senate numbers, that the GOP has two prospective renegades in its ranks, Mitt Romney of Utah and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska.  They could cause their party trouble in closely contested legislative battles, or could help the Democrats confirm nominated judges.  A simple majority of Republicans in the Senate is not enough to guarantee effective control.   

BULLETIN:  On Monday 1:24 a.m. ET:  RCP has revised its latest estimates, now showing a projected Senate of 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats, barely enough to assure a Republican majority.  That is a loss of one GOP seat since yesterday morning's prediction.  RCP has also revised its House prediction, now showing 227 Republicans and 174 Democrats.   Remember that these are only polling estimates. 

MIDTERM LATEST:  Only days to go until Tuesday's midterms.  We follow the RealClearPolitics (RCP) averages every day, about the best source out there for current election statistics.  They study a number of polls to come up with their reports.

Current RCP estimates for the House:  174 Democrats, 228 Republicans, 33 toss-ups.  The Republican gain, RCP projects, will be between 15 and 48 seats, with an average gain of 31-32.  (A House majority is currently 218 votes.)

Current RCP estimates for the US Senate:  44 Democrats, 48 Republicans, 8 toss-ups.    (A Senate majority is 51 votes.) Projected GOP gain is 4 seats, resulting in a Senate of 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats.

We stress that these are projections based on current polling.

One of the most watched races is not for Congress but for the governorship of New York, my state, which, for some reason, remains politically significant, despite the fact that large numbers of people here have problems finding their birth certificates.  New York is in terrible shape, with more people leaving than arriving.  We are governed by Kathy Hochul, whom no one ever heard of before she, as lieutenant governor, became governor when Andrew Cuomo was forced out of the job by scandals. 

The general belief in politics is that New York is a permanent blue state, and that no Republicans need apply.   Indeed, Minimum Governor Hochul actually invited Republicans to leave New York and move to Florida.  The dynamic Republican Party here puts up candidates who write their concession speeches before the elections are held. 

But conditions are bad, and in walked Republican Congressman Lee Zeldin to run for the governorship, and actually try to win it.  Other local Republicans gasped in shock.   No one gave Zeldin a chance.  But Zeldin is a tireless campaigner, and now is within single-digit range of the sitting Hochul.  The odds are still against him, and only one poll shows Zeldin with any kind of lead.  But you never know.  Real enthusiasm shows up on election day.  We are hoping.   

November 5-6, 2022       Permalink