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NOVEMBER 3,  2022

BULLETIN:  Oprah Winfrey has just endorsed John Fetterman for the U.S. Senate from Pennsylvania.  We are waiting for the morning markets to react.  We understand that Beverly Hills has put its nuclear forces on alert.  You don't get news this big every day. 

Okay, stop laughing.  Next story.

OUR LARGEST STATE IS A FAILING BLUE MESS:  California, there I go.  Many are leaving, fewer are coming.  From Fox Business: 

A recent report from the Hoover Institution highlighted the ongoing exodus of companies pulling their headquarters out of California to escape the Golden State’s high tax and regulatory environment. 

According to the report, released on Oct. 25, California business headquarters in 2021 left the state at twice their rate in both 2020 and 2019 and at three times their rate in 2018. 

Over the last three years, California lost 11 Fortune 1,000 companies, whose exits are expected to negatively affect the state’s economy. 

The authors say the growing exodus comes down to economics, "plain and simple," noting that state and local policies have raised business costs that are unmanageable. Consequently, businesses are choosing to move their headquarters to states with more favorable climates such as lower taxes and lower living costs. 

The exodus, according to the report, is happening across many industries, including manufacturing, aerospace, financial services, real estate, chemicals, health care, and high-technology businesses. 

Big-tech legacy firms like Hewlett-Packard Enterprises, Oracle, and Tesla command the most media attention when they leave California. But the state, the report notes, is also losing smaller businesses which spells negative implications for California’s economic future. 

Texas remains a major destination for businesses leaving California. But businesses are also moving to other states with lower business costs and better business climates than California, according to the report. 

"Policies have driven business and housing costs so high that companies and people are leaving the state for more affordable, less regulated, and less taxed locations," the report says. "This process will continue until the state’s political leaders make very different policy choices that create a different future for California—one that honors its remarkable past."    

COMMENT:  California is committing economic suicide because its Democratic Party, which runs the state, has been taken over by leftist extremists and ideological socialists.  They care little for the state's future, as long as they can get some political victory now.  It's how leaders show off to followers, and remain leaders.

The hottest states economically are Texas and Florida.  But don't count out places like Tennessee.  I know New Yorkers who are moving there, and can't wait.

One can wonder whether the voting of Californians will show concern for the state's economic prospects.  I'd imagine that day is coming, but it might not be next Tuesday.

Remember, in  better time for the state, Ronald Reagan was governor.

November 3, 2022       Permalink  

NOVEMBER 2,  2022

IS IT COMING TRUE?  Another new major poll shows a shift toward the GOP.  We'll see if this repeats in the coming days before next Tuesday's elections.  From the Washington Examiner:

Election Day can’t come to Republicans fast enough.

With less than a week before the election arrives, another poll has shifted in their favor.

The Quinnipiac University poll, which had voters preferring a Democratic House to a Republican one, 47%-43%, at the end of August, has flipped. The new numbers show a preference for a Republican House, 48%-44%.

Three other pollsters show similar or larger gaps in favor of the GOP in the so-called generic vote count.

Concerns among Democrats that they will lose control of Congress have prompted President Joe Biden to throw on an eleventh-hour speech about “democracy” on Wednesday night.

Quinnipiac uses different wording than some other pollsters, asking not about generic candidates but whether voters prefer a party in control of the House and the Senate, a broader gauge of voter sentiment.

What it said on Wednesday was not good for the Democrats. The survey analysis read, "Among registered voters, if the election were today, 48% say they would want to see the Republican Party win control of the United States House of Representatives, while 44% say the Democratic Party. This is a shift from a Quinnipiac University poll on August 31st when 47% said the Democratic Party and 43% said the Republican Party."

“As for which party registered voters would want to see win control of the United States Senate, 48% say the Republican Party and 45% say the Democratic Party. This compares to August when 47% said the Democratic Party and 45% said the Republican Party," it continued.

The poll also found that Republican voters are more enthusiastic.

COMMENT:  We should note that this was a poll of registered voters.  Polls of likely voters almost always show even more of a tilt toward the GOP.

Hope and vote.

November 2, 2022     Permalink

IS THIS THE REAL ISSUE?  I THINK SO.  Is education the hidden, giant issue of this campaign?  Yes.  It hasn't been discussed as much as the economy and crime, but you feel it there, and you see it in the stunning movement of suburban women to the GOP.  We saw it last year in the victory of Republican Glenn Youngkin, who flipped Virginia red and became governor, largely on the education issue.

There is a rule of life:  Mothers take care of their cubs, and if someone hurts their cubs, mothers react.  Many mothers clearly feel that the Democratic Party, with its crazy, "progressive" education views, has hurt their cubs.  Watch those mothers vote.

Steve Hayward, at Powerline, has a good take:

The most remarkable finding of the latest Wall Street Journal poll on the mid-term election is the yuuuge swing of suburban women toward the GOP since August:

The new survey shows that white women living in suburban areas, who make up 20% of the electorate, now favor Republicans for Congress by 15 percentage points, moving 27 percentage points away from Democrats since the Journal’s August poll.

That is one whopping move. As the Journal article explains, the shift isn’t just limited to congressional vote preference, but seems to be cascading down ticket. What explains this?

The Journal speculates that the reaction to the Dobbs decision has worn off, and while this is possible, the longer you think about it the less persuasive it seems. What has changed since August? If anything, you’d expect the opposite: Democrats have intensified their anti-Dobbs messaging, which ought to reinforce the supposed pro-choice leanings of suburban women. Is it inflation? Inflation was just as bad in August, so this explanation is also less than fully convincing for such a large shift. Crime? Same thing.

The opinion polls all cite inflation and crime as the driving issues, but I’ve noticed some glaring omissions from the issue panels the pollsters have been using to identify the key movers of voter opinion: the COVID school closure hangover, and the cultural issues involved in public education today (especially “gender fluidity” and related enthusiasms of the cultural left). Virtually no poll asks any questions about these issues, even though they played a prominent role in the Virginia governor’s race last year.

Even though the Democrat-media-complex whipped up a fury over Gov. DeSantis’s supposed “don’t say gay” bill in Florida last year, polling showed that even a majority of Democrats supported the bill that merely prohibited sex education before the third grade.

Local school board elections are suddenly hot around the country, with a growing backlash against a public education establishment that has been captured by the left. And when even San Francisco voters recall three of their woke school board members by a landslide, you’d think pollsters would start paying attention to the issue of education.

COMMENT:  Read the rest.  It's well worth it.  Why do I think the words "school choice"  will play a prominent role in the 2024 presidential campaign?

November 2, 2022       Permalink