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NOVEMBER 2,  2022

IS IT COMING TRUE?  Another new major poll shows a shift toward the GOP.  We'll see if this repeats in the coming days before next Tuesday's elections.  From the Washington Examiner:

Election Day can’t come to Republicans fast enough.

With less than a week before the election arrives, another poll has shifted in their favor.

The Quinnipiac University poll, which had voters preferring a Democratic House to a Republican one, 47%-43%, at the end of August, has flipped. The new numbers show a preference for a Republican House, 48%-44%.

Three other pollsters show similar or larger gaps in favor of the GOP in the so-called generic vote count.

Concerns among Democrats that they will lose control of Congress have prompted President Joe Biden to throw on an eleventh-hour speech about “democracy” on Wednesday night.

Quinnipiac uses different wording than some other pollsters, asking not about generic candidates but whether voters prefer a party in control of the House and the Senate, a broader gauge of voter sentiment.

What it said on Wednesday was not good for the Democrats. The survey analysis read, "Among registered voters, if the election were today, 48% say they would want to see the Republican Party win control of the United States House of Representatives, while 44% say the Democratic Party. This is a shift from a Quinnipiac University poll on August 31st when 47% said the Democratic Party and 43% said the Republican Party."

“As for which party registered voters would want to see win control of the United States Senate, 48% say the Republican Party and 45% say the Democratic Party. This compares to August when 47% said the Democratic Party and 45% said the Republican Party," it continued.

The poll also found that Republican voters are more enthusiastic.

COMMENT:  We should note that this was a poll of registered voters.  Polls of likely voters almost always show even more of a tilt toward the GOP.

Hope and vote.

November 2, 2022     Permalink

IS THIS THE REAL ISSUE?  I THINK SO.  Is education the hidden, giant issue of this campaign?  Yes.  It hasn't been discussed as much as the economy and crime, but you feel it there, and you see it in the stunning movement of suburban women to the GOP.  We saw it last year in the victory of Republican Glenn Youngkin, who flipped Virginia red and became governor, largely on the education issue.

There is a rule of life:  Mothers take care of their cubs, and if someone hurts their cubs, mothers react.  Many mothers clearly feel that the Democratic Party, with its crazy, "progressive" education views, has hurt their cubs.  Watch those mothers vote.

Steve Hayward, at Powerline, has a good take:

The most remarkable finding of the latest Wall Street Journal poll on the mid-term election is the yuuuge swing of suburban women toward the GOP since August:

The new survey shows that white women living in suburban areas, who make up 20% of the electorate, now favor Republicans for Congress by 15 percentage points, moving 27 percentage points away from Democrats since the Journal’s August poll.

That is one whopping move. As the Journal article explains, the shift isn’t just limited to congressional vote preference, but seems to be cascading down ticket. What explains this?

The Journal speculates that the reaction to the Dobbs decision has worn off, and while this is possible, the longer you think about it the less persuasive it seems. What has changed since August? If anything, you’d expect the opposite: Democrats have intensified their anti-Dobbs messaging, which ought to reinforce the supposed pro-choice leanings of suburban women. Is it inflation? Inflation was just as bad in August, so this explanation is also less than fully convincing for such a large shift. Crime? Same thing.

The opinion polls all cite inflation and crime as the driving issues, but I’ve noticed some glaring omissions from the issue panels the pollsters have been using to identify the key movers of voter opinion: the COVID school closure hangover, and the cultural issues involved in public education today (especially “gender fluidity” and related enthusiasms of the cultural left). Virtually no poll asks any questions about these issues, even though they played a prominent role in the Virginia governor’s race last year.

Even though the Democrat-media-complex whipped up a fury over Gov. DeSantis’s supposed “don’t say gay” bill in Florida last year, polling showed that even a majority of Democrats supported the bill that merely prohibited sex education before the third grade.

Local school board elections are suddenly hot around the country, with a growing backlash against a public education establishment that has been captured by the left. And when even San Francisco voters recall three of their woke school board members by a landslide, you’d think pollsters would start paying attention to the issue of education.

COMMENT:  Read the rest.  It's well worth it.  Why do I think the words "school choice"  will play a prominent role in the 2024 presidential campaign?

November 2, 2022       Permalink

NOVEMBER 1,  2022

THE DRUMBEAT GETS LOUDER:  No question about it, anyone following the news can feel the rising excitement in the Republican Party as the election gets closer.  The polls are moving their way.  States and races are in play that had been considered automatically Democratic.  In Washington State, where left-wing violence is a respected part of the culture, ancient Dem Senator Patty Murray is feeling major heat from Republican Tiffany Smiley.  (I do wish some of our candidates would get more serious names.)  At the start of this campaign, Murray was considered invincible.

In Oregon, there's a good chance that a Republican will be elected governor.  I didn't know that Republicans were allowed on the ballot.  It is reported that much of the population is already scheduling visits with political psychiatrists to try to adjust to a Republican on the TV screen.

Here in desperate New York, Republican Congressman Lee Zeldin, all but written off by the talking heads at the start of his campaign, is running neck-and-neck for the governorship against incumbent Cuomo disciple Kathy Hochul, who announced this week that talk about crime is ridiculous, and part of a right-wing conspiracy to scare voters.  Not smart in a state where people are afraid to take the subway. 

And in Michigan, Her Weirdness herself, Dem Governor Gretchen Whitmer, got up this morning to learn she's neck-and-neck with challenger Tudor Dixon, whom few ever heard of just months ago. 

Reports tell us that the Democratic Party is spending millions in states and Congressional districts where they've never had to spend much before.  Send 'em a buck if you feel generous.

Now, because we're responsible adults and model parents, we must caution that none of these races are sure things for our side, but the numbers do not lie.  Republicans are fast changing the race in almost every poll.  Can they be stopped?

Maybe.

I do have some nightmares in reserve.  The first is that, with all the words about a Republican surge, we might fall just short in some key races.

The second is that our voters will become so confident that they'll neglect to vote.   You probably have noticed that Republican candidates, in almost all appearances, are calling for maximum turnout.  The election depends on it.

The third nightmare is that there will be a last-minute report of an "investigation" by a major news organization, like The New York Times, that will smear our side when there isn't enough time to answer.  That's been done before.

And the fourth is the worst nightmare of all – that we may win many close races on election night, only to have the results overturned by absentee or mail ballots.  Indeed, someone identified only as a member of the Stacey Abrams campaign was quoted as saying that he hoped all those pieces of paper out there will serve to wipe out a Republican election-day victory.  That is serious stuff.  Paper is easily manipulated.  But of course I'd never suspect...

November 1, 2022       Permalink