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NOVEMBER 1,  2022

THE DRUMBEAT GETS LOUDER:  No question about it, anyone following the news can feel the rising excitement in the Republican Party as the election gets closer.  The polls are moving their way.  States and races are in play that had been considered automatically Democratic.  In Washington State, where left-wing violence is a respected part of the culture, ancient Dem Senator Patty Murray is feeling major heat from Republican Tiffany Smiley.  (I do wish some of our candidates would get more serious names.)  At the start of this campaign, Murray was considered invincible.

In Oregon, there's a good chance that a Republican will be elected governor.  I didn't know that Republicans were allowed on the ballot.  It is reported that much of the population is already scheduling visits with political psychiatrists to try to adjust to a Republican on the TV screen.

Here in desperate New York, Republican Congressman Lee Zeldin, all but written off by the talking heads at the start of his campaign, is running neck-and-neck for the governorship against incumbent Cuomo disciple Kathy Hochul, who announced this week that talk about crime is ridiculous, and part of a right-wing conspiracy to scare voters.  Not smart in a state where people are afraid to take the subway. 

And in Michigan, Her Weirdness herself, Dem Governor Gretchen Whitmer, got up this morning to learn she's neck-and-neck with challenger Tudor Dixon, whom few ever heard of just months ago. 

Reports tell us that the Democratic Party is spending millions in states and Congressional districts where they've never had to spend much before.  Send 'em a buck if you feel generous.

Now, because we're responsible adults and model parents, we must caution that none of these races are sure things for our side, but the numbers do not lie.  Republicans are fast changing the race in almost every poll.  Can they be stopped?

Maybe.

I do have some nightmares in reserve.  The first is that, with all the words about a Republican surge, we might fall just short in some key races.

The second is that our voters will become so confident that they'll neglect to vote.   You probably have noticed that Republican candidates, in almost all appearances, are calling for maximum turnout.  The election depends on it.

The third nightmare is that there will be a last-minute report of an "investigation" by a major news organization, like The New York Times, that will smear our side when there isn't enough time to answer.  That's been done before.

And the fourth is the worst nightmare of all – that we may win many close races on election night, only to have the results overturned by absentee or mail ballots.  Indeed, someone identified only as a member of the Stacey Abrams campaign was quoted as saying that he hoped all those pieces of paper out there will serve to wipe out a Republican election-day victory.  That is serious stuff.  Paper is easily manipulated.  But of course I'd never suspect...

November 1, 2022       Permalink

OCTOBER 31,  2022

A NEW GEORGIA PEACH:  Herschel pulls into the lead.  From the Washington Examiner: 

Former football star Herschel Walker (R-GA) has pulled ahead of incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-GA) in the polls in the Georgia Senate race in the time since the two debated more than two weeks ago.

The momentum by the former University of Georgia running back comes as GOP candidates across the country are seeing a strong finish in the final stretch of polling before midterm elections.

Walker currently leads Warnock in the Real Clear Politics polling average by 1.4 percentage points, a massive swing compared with the 3.3 percentage point lead Warnock held on Oct. 14, when the two debated in Savannah, Georgia.

Of the six major polls conducted entirely after the only debate between Walker and Warnock, Walker has led three of them and has been tied with Warnock in one.

Despite accusations from several women that Walker paid for or pressured them to get abortions, allegations that Walker has denied, he has been able to move ahead of the senator in what is expected to be one of the tightest races in the midterm elections.

Warnock brought in former President Barack Obama, who lost Georgia both times he ran for president, to campaign with him in the Peach State in an attempt to reverse the late momentum from Walker.

COMMENT:  There is no doubt a Republican trend in these final days before the election, but we always urge caution.  Getting out the vote is now key.  The big poll is next Tuesday.  Be there.

October 31, 2022       Permalink

OTHERS ARE VOTING, TOO:  Israel goes to the polls today in a national election.  The results will substantially influence events in the Middle East and American policy in the region.  From Fox: 

JERUSALEM – Tuesday could be a big day for former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. As Israelis returned to the polls for a fifth time in less than four years, the former Israeli leader is growing increasingly hopeful that a whirlwind election campaign and more than a year in opposition will be enough to propel him back into power.

However, his path to the premiership is complicated. First by the fact that he is currently embroiled in a high-profile criminal trial that includes charges of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust, and secondly by the other political parties he might need in order to build his future coalition, which includes a faction made up of controversial far right-wing politicians.

Netanyahu, the longest-serving leader in Israel’s history, was ousted in the last round of voting in March 2021. Since then, he has watched from the opposition bench as his rivals – first Naftali Bennett and now Yair Lapid – ran the country with a fragile government coalition that included, for the first time ever, a controversial party from the country’s minority Arab sector. 

In an interview on Friday with Fox News Digital, Netanyahu said that he felt confident he could win this election and return to power with a more solid and ideologically aligned government. 

"I think there’s a very good chance we’ll win this time because people have tasted the difference," Netanyahu said, adding, "They put in a different government that made an alliance – and this will shock you – with the Muslim Brotherhood. They’re actually part of the existing coalition that was unraveled and that is unfathomable because these people don't recognize the Jewish state and they support the terrorists who seek to murder Israelis." 

Netanyahu said he believed that many Israelis wanted to see him return, leading a government that is "committed to Israel as a Jewish state" and "to restoring a powerful economy and a powerful military and security for all Israelis." 

COMMENT:   Netanyahu, who was raised in the United States, is a brilliant but outspoken leader who has both allies and enemies here. 

The Middle East is endlessly fascinating...and dangerous.  We'll follow the Israeli election. 

October 31, 2022       Permalink