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MAY 7, 2022

FOLLOWING PUTIN – OVERNIGHT:  He's the man of the hour, or the thug of the hour.  We're awaiting the festivities in Moscow Monday that will mark the end of the Second World War in Europe.  The speculation is really flying over what Putin will announce, if anything.   Ukrainians are on edge.  From Fox:

Russian President Vladimir Putin could soon be "doubling down" in an attempt to emerge victorious in Ukraine despite the death of over 25,000 Russian soldiers and mounting economic sanctions by the international community, a senior U.S. intelligence official said.

U.S. Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns announced Saturday that Putin is optimistic about the war’s outcome despite historic losses and failed attempts to capture Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv. 

"He's in a frame of mind in which he doesn't believe he can afford to lose," Burns said during a Financial Times event in Washington, Reuters reported. "I think he's convinced right now that doubling down still will enable him to make progress."

While military experts thought the war could have swiftly ended, Ukraine’s spirit remains unbroken despite more than 70 days of combat and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has won over the help of countries around the world, helping his country’s chances in the war. 

The CIA director also said a potential loss would have devastating effects on Putin "because he staked so much on the choices that he made to launch this invasion," AFP reported.

Burns said he did not think Russia would pursue using nuclear weapons to win the war and clarified that Western intelligence efforts did not see any sign of Putin deploying them. 

We don't see, as an intelligence community, practical evidence at this point of Russian planning for the deployment or even potential use of tactical nuclear weapons," Burns said, as AFP reported.

He said intelligence services would "not take lightly those possibilities" and that the CIA would remain diligent in surveilling Russia’s interest in using nukes, according to Reuters. 

"So we stay very sharply focused as an intelligence service ... on those possibilities at a moment when the stakes are very high for Russia," he said.

COMMENT:  One element that has been somewhat overlooked is the fact that the United States Congress is remarkably united in supporting Ukraine.  This can be attributed less to the ideology of the cause than to the sheer guts displayed by the Ukrainians and the brutality of the Russian assault. The TV pictures rule much of our thinking.  In turn, American support has convinced European nations to give more aid to the Ukrainians than they'd originally intended.  Even Germany, ever sensitive to its dependence on Russian energy, has now taken a deeper plunge in aiding the Ukrainians. 

The quality of the assistance is also key.  The Javelin anti-tank missiles, supplied by both the United States and European countries, have performed brilliantly, reducing the advantage that Moscow had in armored warfare.  That advantage is being further eroded by the new arrival of the American 155-mm Howitzers, which are equipped with rocket-assisted shells and advanced targeting ability.  And it's clear that American intelligence information, probably based on satellites, has been invaluable.

But the questions remain:  Despite initial losses, what do the Russians want, and what will they accept?  Stand by.

May 7, 2022     Permalink

MAY 6, 2022

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – OVERNIGHT:

THE ONCE-GOLDEN STATE – OVERNIGHT:   Californians, get thee to the supermarkets and buy your Duracells.  Darkness is-a-comin'.   From Reuters:   May 6 (Reuters) - California energy officials on Friday issued a sober forecast for the state's electrical grid, saying it lacks sufficient capacity to keep the lights on this summer and beyond if heatwaves, wildfires or other extreme events take their toll.  The update from leaders from three state agencies and the office of Governor Gavin Newsom comes in response to a string of challenges with the ambitious transition away from fossil fuels, including rolling blackouts during a summer heat wave in 2020.  California has among the most aggressive climate change policies in the world, including a goal of producing all of its electricity from carbon-free sources by 2045.  In an online briefing with reporters, the officials forecast a potential shortfall of 1,700 megawatts this year, a number that could go as high as 5,000 MW if the grid is taxed by multiple challenges that reduce available power while sending demand soaring, state officials said during an online briefing with reporters.  Supply gaps along those lines could leave between 1 million and 4 million people without power.  Why, this is silly.  It's a green energy state.  Why don't they just plug the state into the green-energy machine?  I'm sure they have a very good one.  And everybody drives green-energy cars.  Plug them in too.  I don't see what's so hard about all this.  And even if the lights go out, so what?  Dark is good.  In the light you use all that carbon stuff.  Live darkly!  Oh, I feel so good about myself.

May 6, 2022     Permalink

MARK THIS COMING MONDAY – OVERNIGHT:  It will be May 9th, the day that Russia commemorates victory over Nazi Germany in 1945.  It is a major day on the Russian calendar, a day when the victory is celebrated with massive military parades and muscle flexing.

The question is:  What will Russia do on Monday, considering the combat in Ukraine?  Will it announce a new policy?  Dig in further?  Call up reserves?  Declare victory?  Use nuclear weapons?  The world will be watching, and listening.  From Fox: 

As Russian soldiers, tanks, and military vehicles carrying ballistic missiles participate in a military parade next week, Russian President Vladimir Putin hopes the display sends a "doomsday" warning to Europe and the United States, according to a report.

The World War II parade, which Russia celebrates on May 9 each year, marks the 77th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory in Europe, when allied powers defeated Nazi Germany, and is taking place when countries around the world seek to stop Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. 

The military display will also feature supersonic jets, Tu-160 bombers, and the Ilyushin Il-80 — known as Russia’s "doomsday" plane which carries the administration’s senior leadership in the case of a nuclear war, Reuters reported.

The "Flying Kremlin" aircraft, as it is also known, distinctly has no windows except for those in the very front of the plane and has been seen in Moscow in recent days, participating in low-altitude rehearsal flights for the Victory Day parade, Daily Mail reported.

This year will be the first time Russia includes the Soviet-era plane in the annual military demonstration since 2010, according to the report.

The theme of nuclear readiness and international deterrence will also be shown in Russia’s use of missile carriers Tu-95MS and Tu-160 "White Swan," as well as Su-57 fighter and Tu-22M3 long-range bombers, Daily Mail reported.

Russia’s military occupation of Ukraine will also be referenced in the parade as eight MiG-29SMTs intend to fly in the form of the letter "Z," which has become a symbol of Russia’s military, according to the report.

COMMENT:  Reports from Ukraine tell us that Russia is building up its forces in the east, and that major, brutal battles can be expected in the coming weeks.  Russian casualties are said to be exceptionally high.  No one is certain what Putin will do if his forces do not capture enough ground in east Ukraine to declare victory.

I'm seriously concerned that Americans are already losing interest in Ukraine.  That may change in the face of what may well be the most brutal ground combat in Europe since World War II.

I urge you to keep up with reports from Moscow all day Monday.  We may, or may not, be given the Russian view of the future.  Right now that view seems to be grim.

May 6, 2022     Permalink