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I appeared on Silvio Canto Jr's talk show from Dallas.  It's here.

JUNE 13-14, 2022

HIS PLACE IN HISTORY – 8:05 P.M. ET:  Like the Titanic, Joe Biden is known for sinking.  From Issues & Insights: 

On day 487 in office, President Joe Biden set a new record. He has the lowest approval rating of all presidents at this point in their presidencies since Gallup started tracking this in 1945.

According to Gallup’s Presidential Job Approval Center, just 41% approve of the job Biden is doing. That’s worse than Gerald Ford, or Lyndon Johnson, or even Jimmy Carter on day 487. Much worse than Ronald Reagan, the Bushes, Bill Clinton, or Barack Obama.

To add insult to his injury, Biden’s approval rating is now lower than Trump’s was at this point in Trump’s first term.
Biden’s oh-so-presidential response to his cratering support: he is “seething.”

Instead of accepting blame, Biden and his “inner circle” are blaming everyone around them, including the White House staff. Politico reports that: “Members of Biden’s inner circle, including first lady Jill Biden and the president’s sister, Valerie Biden Owens, have complained that West Wing staff has managed Biden with kid gloves, not putting him on the road more or allowing him to flash more of his genuine, relatable, albeit gaffe-prone self.”

Yeah, letting Biden be Biden will work.

Maybe Jill and the rest of the inner circle will convince Joe to change his hairstyle like Carter did halfway through his presidency in hopes that it would win people back to his side.

For the record, here are the approval ratings for all the presidents since Truman at this point in their first elected term in office, according to Gallup:

• Eisenhower: 63%
• Kennedy: 71%
• Nixon: 59%
• Carter: 43%
• Reagan: 45%
• Bush: 65%
• Clinton: 51%
• Bush: 76%
• Obama: 48%
• Trump: 42%
• Biden: 41%

COMMENT:  The problem with Biden is that he's a generally untalented man whose lack of talent is well past its prime.  Reagan was only at 45% at this time in his presidency, but he was packed with talent and good ideas, and he knew how to speak to the American people.  He rose, and won re-election by a landslide.  Biden falls, he's trapped by the Soviet wing of his party, and he inspires no confidence.

The Democratic Party theme song used to be, "Happy Days are Here Again."  Now it's, "Dearie, Do You Remember?"

June 13-14, 2022       Permalink 

OH, NOW LOOK AT THIS – OVERNIGHT:   You all know the beautiful saga of the friend-of-Lenin prosecutor who was removed from office in San Francisco last week.  We're starting to get more detailed numbers on the recall election, and they're pretty stunning.  From Real Clear Politics: 

As the dust has settled in the days since a political earthquake hit California with the landslide recall of San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin, a distinct voting pattern has emerged.

Precinct-by-precinct voting maps show minority voters backing the recall in much higher numbers than college-educated, affluent white progressives, with very few exceptions. It’s not difficult to understand why, California political analysts across the spectrum tell RealClearPolitics. Minority communities suffer more when crimes rates are soaring than insulated wealthier neighborhoods with more protections and money for security.

You mean minority folks don't want to be mugged, and don't want their kids robbed?  What kind of minorities are these?  They can't be legitimate.

Precinct-by-precinct voting maps show minority voters backing the recall in much higher numbers than college-educated, affluent white progressives, with very few exceptions. It’s not difficult to understand why, California political analysts across the spectrum tell RealClearPolitics. Minority communities suffer more when crimes rates are soaring than insulated wealthier neighborhoods with more protections and money for security.

“While we are fewer in number [than in the city’s past], we saw more African Americans resist the narrative that you have to reject this recall, it’s racist, it’s not progressive, it’s about conservatism, and they’re trying to dupe you,” Andrea Shorter, spokeswoman for Safer SF Without Boudin, the largest Boudin recall group, told RCP. “We’re looking around, and a lot of the bodies that are stacking up, whether it’s from fentanyl or from violent assaults from folks who should not have been on our streets…are people of color.”

Under different circumstances, Shorter and Boudin would have been aligned in their pursuit of criminal justice reform. Shorter has spent 25 years in San Francisco as a community organizer and political strategist specializing in criminal and juvenile justice reform, gender equity, and LGBTQ workplace inclusion. But the city’s interwoven problems of homelessness, high crime, and rampant drug dealing had brought Shorter to a breaking point with liberal orthodoxy.

“There’s this romantic notion of what being a progressive means versus the reality of policies that are not having a positive impact on our lives,” she said. “When there are open-air drug markets in the Tenderloin – well, who’s getting hurt by that? We’re all getting hurt, but it’s mostly people of color that are hurt.”

San Francisco is one of the most ethnically diverse cities in the country; its residents speak more than 100 languages. Asians make up roughly a third of the city’s population, with a large percentage of its business owners anchored in Chinatown, which voted 68% in favor of the recall.

Several high-profile Asian community leaders helped spearhead the recall, including Mary Jung, former chair of the San Francisco Democratic Party, and Leanna Louie, a small-business owner and veteran who was one of 60 Asian Americans assaulted on the streets of San Francisco in 2021 – more than a six-fold increase from 2020.

Louie began volunteering with a community-run task force to patrol Chinatown’s neighborhood when shop owners began experiencing a significant uptake in burglaries and vandalism.

“There’s two kinds of people in San Francisco. Ones who were victims and ones who are about to be victims, if Chesa doesn’t get recalled,” Louie told Newsweek days before the recall. “Most people who come by us have already had their cars smashed in several times, their houses broken into or their [businesses] have been vandalized.”

Shorter and others point to an alarming statistic: Fentanyl overdoses in San Francisco killed more people than COVID over the last year. While the surging fentanyl crisis killed nearly 500 people last year, Boudin’s office reportedly did not secure a single conviction for dealing the deadly opioid for cases filed during 2021.

COMMENT:  That's good reporting, and reinforces a new political reality – that minorities, the core of the Democratic Party, are turning against that party.  People in minority communities are becoming truly woke, and are realizing that the party does nothing for them, while demanding their vote.

The recall also shows that minorities are growing independent of their leaders, who are often part of the Democratic machine.  At this rate, the Democratic Party may soon be made up of Marxists, escaped prisoners, and anthropologists.   They could start a new Ivy League school, or replace CNN.

June 13, 2022       Permalink

JUNE 12, 2022

THE GREAT SALENA – OVERNIGHT:  In my view, Salena Zito is the best political reporter writing today.  She actually goes out and talks to real people, the kind who work and vote.  She is a journalistic scandal.  She also leans right, which is why she'll never be given a Pulitzer Prize.  Why does the establishment let her have a computer?

Now Zito is examining the shifts in voter patters, shifts to the Republican side in Ohio.  From the Washington Examiner: 

NILES, Ohio — Not all that long ago if you were a Republican in Trumbull County — in truth, there weren’t that many Republicans around here not that long ago — you likely cast your vote for Tim Ryan for Congress every time he was up for reelection for his congressional seat.

Just four years ago, and two years after former President Donald Trump shockingly won his home county in the 2016 presidential election, Ryan still managed to coast to victory for a ninth term in the House, winning his home county by just shy of 60 percentage points. That number, however, had fallen from the over 70% he used to enjoy in previous cycles.

It wasn’t really the 10-point shift Ryan should have paid attention to — it was that it happened in the “Valley.” Things were changing in the Buckeye State.

Youngstown State University political science professor Paul Sracic explained that if you had to look to just one place in the United States to understand the political earthquake that has occurred over the last six years, the eastern border of Ohio would be a good place to start. “It was once dark blue, reflecting the working-class roots of most in the area and the historic tie between organized labor and the Democratic Party,” he said.

Sracic said 2020 was the real game changer for Republicans in this state. “Every county from Ashtabula County, bordering on Lake Erie, down along the Ohio River, down to Lawrence County, with the exception of Athens County, home to Ohio University, voted for Donald Trump,” he said.

In truth, these voters were instinctively social conservatives, and some of the counties were beginning to peel off slowly from the Democratic Party even before 2016.

In 2020, Ryan lost his home county, where voters used to joke they were baptized both Catholic and Democratic shortly after birth, by over 1.5 percentage points.

He still narrowly won his seat despite that mind-warping swing in his home county thanks to a congressional map that made his seat one of the most Democratic districts in Ohio.

Ryan told me it stung at the time (he did not return a request to comment for this story) and that 2020 was a tough year for a lot of centrist Democrats, and none of them saw it coming.

Going into that cycle, Democrats were projected to gain 15 to 20 House seats — instead, they lost 13 seats.

Two years later, Ryan is running for the Senate against Republican J.D. Vance, and one of the most remarkable aspects of this race is that the five counties of Mahoning, Portage, Stark, Summit, and Trumbull that make up the legendary Valley and Ryan’s congressional seat may be the hardest counties for him to win.

COMMENT:  A great report, as usual.   Please read the rest.  The key question is whether these trends will continue, and whether Donald Trump's presence or absence will make a difference. These voters believed in Trump because he understood them.  He never spoke about theoretical ideologies.  He spoke bread and butter. 

We're five months from the midterms.  The predictions are for a Republican sweep.  I'll believe it when I see it, and not before.

June 12, 2022       Permalink