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JUNE 3, 2022

GOP LEAD WIDENS – OVERNIGHT:  Republicans are increasing their lead in the generic Congressional ballot, at least according to one poll.  From Breitbart: 

Republicans continue to lead Democrats and gain momentum on the generic congressional ballot in the latest Rasmussen Reports survey, after a slight dip last week following a recent school shooting in Texas and the gun rights battle.

As the Republicans look to retake control of Congress in the 2022 midterm elections only 158 days away, the most recent Rasmussen Reports survey showed the GOP expanded the lead by two points after a slight three-point dip from last week.

The Republicans expanded the party’s lead to an eight-point difference. Forty-eight percent said they would vote for the generic Republican candidate, while only 40 percent said the generic Democrat candidate if the election was held “today.”

The poll found that only four percent would choose a different candidate, while another eight percent said they were unsure.

The Republicans gained two points from last week when the survey showed the GOP with a 47 percent to 41 percent lead, what Rasmussen Reports said was the closest the two parties had been all year. Rasmussen Reports updates their generic congressional ballot every Friday.

Last week’s slight dip for Republicans occurred the same week a shooting occurred at an Elementary School in Texas, where Border Patrol agents moved in to stop the shooter. Since then, leftist organizations and lawmakers have tried to force the issue of gun control on the American people.

Rasmussen noted that in June 2018, before the Democrats took the House for the first time in eight years, they only had a four-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot. Additionally, June 2028 was slightly up from May 2018, when the Democrats only had a one-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot.

Plus, as the 2018 November midterm election neared, the margins between the Democrats and Republicans came extremely close — Republicans had 46 percent to 45 percent for Democrats.

However, in this poll, the Republican party has a heavy advantage (15 points) with independents over the Democrats. With the voters not affiliated with either major party, 43 percent said they would vote for the GOP candidate, while only 28 percent said they would vote for the Democrat candidate.

Additionally, 27 percent of black voters and 43 percent of other minority groups said they would vote for the Republican candidate if the election was held “today.”

COMMENT:  The most important part of this story is the dramatic gain for Republicans among minorities.  Minorities are a critical percentage of the Democratic base.  If the GOP can chip away part of that base, American politics could be changed forever. 

Democrats seem incapable of ideological change, and it appears they'll go down like a sinking ship rather than alter their patronizing attitude toward minority groups.  The groups have begun to notice.

June 3, 2022      Permalink 

JUNE 2, 2022

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – OVERNIGHT:

NEW YORK IS SINKING, AND NO ONE WANTS TO THROW IT A LIFELINE,  FROM JUST THE NEWS:   The Internal Revenue Service this week released more troubling data for New York, with the federal agency showing more high-earning taxpayers leaving the state.  Tracking returns filed in 2019 and 2020 showed that 479,826 people left New York for another state or country in those years. Over the same timeframe, just 231,439 people moved to the state. That means the state suffered a net loss of 248,387 residents.  And, of course, those people took their money with them. The IRS figures show the moves generated an economic exodus of more than $19.5 billion.  New Jersey and Florida were the biggest beneficiaries. More than 84,500 people moved from New York to New Jersey and took $5.3 billion. By contrast, only 37,127 New Jersey residents moved to New York and brought $2.2 billion in income.  The numbers were even starker between New York and Florida. Over the two years, 71,845 New Yorkers flocked to the Sunshine States and took $6.4 billion. Meanwhile, 26,902 former Floridians moved up north. Those individuals had a combined income of $1.2 billion.  Wirepoints, in its analysis, noted New York suffered the worst net loss of income of any state, with the $19.5 billion representing a 2.5 percent decline in adjusted gross income. The independent nonprofit research firm said New York lost $1 trillion in income through population losses since the beginning of the century.  A state run by leftist Democrats, and dominated by America's most influential city, New York City, which is falling apart.  New Yorkers try to be optimistic, then go to the polls and vote for the architects of the disaster.

June 2, 2022       Permalink  

THE SIGNS ARE GROWING – DEMS FACE DISASTER – OVERNIGHT:  And of course we're very sad about that.  We wish our Democratic friends the best, and please stop laughing. 

California is now a Democratic problem.  From Hot Air: 

Politico reports on another reasons for Democrats to worry about the upcoming midterms. In deep blue California the number of ballots being returned in primaries is looking low so far.

After this week’s break in the primary calendar, seven states will hold elections on Tuesday. In the biggest of them, California, Democrats are already looking at some troubling early turnout numbers: So far, only about 2.2 million Californians have returned ballots. That’s less than a third of the total early vote at this point in California’s recall election last year.

Primary turnout is traditionally a poor indicator of general election turnout. But Paul Mitchell, a leading political data expert in California, says Democrats have reason to be concerned this year.

Mitchell, who works with Democratic campaigns says everything that can be done to make voting easier in California has been done. And yet, it looks like many Democrats just aren’t feeling motivated right now. He sees that as a potential cause for concern, at least when it comes to congressional races this fall.

At the top of the ticket, it probably doesn’t matter. I would expect the Democrats to be the top vote getters in all these statewide primary elections. And unless something goes awry, they’re probably all going to have easily beatable Republican opponents, and those races are not going to be competitive.

Where Democrats do need to worry is those competitive congressional districts…

If there’s nothing interesting on the statewide ballot in the 2022 general and voters aren’t enthusiastic, just like they are here now in this primary, then, in those kinds of elections, Republicans could win some of these seats…

Democrats nationally need to be looking at California and saying, How do we kind of jolt the electorate into caring about this election cycle and turning out?

COMMENT:  I'd like to see a somewhat more scathing analysis – that the Democratic Party offers very little to voters these days, that it is essentially leaderless, that it is heavily racialized, and that most of its policies are rejected by the American people.  I'd like to see political reporters ask Democrats from different generations whether it's time for a new party..or are they waiting for friends of the Squad to tear down the Kennedy Center before addressing their party's future.

The election is five months away.  There's plenty of time for many political jolts.  But one thing is clear – the morale of this nation is beginning to resemble the darkened American spirit of the Jimmy Carter years.  Then we had a Ronald Reagan who lifted up the nation.  Anyone like that today?  Send us emails.

June 2, 2022       Permalink