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JULY 15, 2022

HOW DARE THEY THINK FOR THEMSELVES?  WHAT IS THIS, SOME KIND OF FREE COUNTRY?  Yes, I know, it's very upsetting to the moguls of the Democratic Party that Hispanic Americans are thinking for themselves and leaving the party in large numbers.  This may mean, brace yourselves, that the party might actually have to serve the interests of these ungrateful souls in order to keep them in line.  Who do they think they are?

The short answer lies in the backgrounds of two Hispanic women – one a stalwart of the Democratic Party's hard left, the other one of the new, stubborn types, who just won't go along with the way things have been.  Read about them.  This is good, explanatory journalism.  From RealClearPolitics: 

Mayra Flores’ stunning victory last week in Texas’ 34th Congressional District shows that the culture war dominating America’s public discourse is not really about race.
Her district, which runs from west of San Antonio to the border town of Brownsville, is 85% Hispanic, which is the second highest proportion in the country. It went for Barack Obama in 2012, Hillary Clinton in 2016, and Joe Biden in 2020, albeit by diminishing margins. The region is now represented on Capitol Hill by a Republican, which hadn’t been the case for approximately 150 years.

Flores’s story could not be more different than her headline-grabbing counterpart in the Democratic Party, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. A comparison between the two sheds light on the cultural and political realignment shaping the country, including a potential sweet spot in American electoral politics, one that emphasizes a socially conservative agenda while centering on the economic plight of the working and middle classes. At stake are two different visions of America.

Flores is the antithesis of AOC. She embodies an authenticity that the “It Girl” of the liberal-left sorely lacks. Despite her calculated efforts to cultivate an image of some sort of besieged escopetera fighting her way out of the Sierra Maestra, AOC is a product of the American middle class – and the Eastern liberal establishment. It is AOC who appears on the cover of Vanity Fair and attends the Met Gala, all to speak truth to power of course!

Flores has received hardly any of this adulating media coverage, which is odd, given that she is the first Mexican-born woman elected to Congress. Except for a few appearances on Fox News, Flores didn’t benefit from the fawning interviews on MSNBC or CNN that helped make AOC a household name. Given all the emphasis on “firsts” and representation in our cultural and social life over the last decade, one would expect Flores to be plastered all over the mainstream media for the coming months, if not years. Gender and ethnicity, it seems, only matter when it suits a particular partisan agenda.

When Flores was asked how she could possibly be a Republican when she was born in Mexico, she responded, “They know nothing about our culture.” Flores’s socially conservative culture emphasizes faith, family, and hard work – values that were once the bedrock of American society – replenished anew with each new wave of immigration.

Flores’s Mexican heritage is especially significant. The Latino experience in America is diverse and while Republicans can expect to get some support from Cubans and Venezuelans fleeing Communist rule, Mexicans and other Hispanic groups have, in the recent past, voted increasingly for Democrats. Flores’s victory suggests that this may be about to change.

COMMENT:  Read the whole thing.  If the Hispanic exodus steams on, the panicking Dems will have to replace Hispanics with another willing interest group.  It may be tough.  How many trans anthropologists are there anyway?

July 15, 2022      Permalink

JULY 14, 2022

CONCERN FOR THE GOP?  The president is in the Mideast.  We won't comment on his trip until it's over.  But one thing we couldn't help notice is that, as of this minute, Mr. Biden has risen six points in the Rasmussen poll from where he was last week at this time.

A fluke?  Maybe.  But that is quite a rise, and the Rasmussen poll is carefully done.  There is no need to panic, but some thought is required, especially as other polls are showing a tightening of the generic ballot for the midterm race, with four months to go until the election.  Some polls even show the Dems a few points ahead.

It is fairly common for a president's standing to go up slightly when he is on a foreign trip.  Instinctively, Americans want our head of state to succeed.  Also, the price of gasoline has gone down slightly in the last few weeks.  I pad $4.75 a gallon today, about 25 cents below recent prices.  It's not much of a drop, but some people may feel encouraged and are giving the president some credit.  Also, Mr. Biden's rise may reflect some backlash against recent Supreme Court decisions, although that is highly speculative.

Whatever the reasons for the new Biden bubble, we'll watch it.  It may disappear, especially when Mr. Biden hits the toughest part of his trip, dealing with the Saudis, who don't win any popularity contests here at home.  And the drop in gasoline prices are clearly offset by the ugly rise in the inflation rate.  Voters will feel that at the supermarket.

One thing must be noted, though, and that is the deep slumber of the Republican Party.   The polls overall still predict a GOP victory in November, and the Republican response seems to be to cuddle up in bed, sleep on the party's lead, and wait for the coronation on election night.  It's fairly typical of Republican history, as President Dewey might remind us.  The party is negative.  It only criticizes the Dems, which is a delight to do, but it has not presented any program of its own.  As we've written here, we need a new contract with America to wake things up, to show America how our side will govern, and address the pain of the American people.  I hope that contract is delivered, with fanfare, after Labor Day. 

Just for the information value, we do have some late polling done in the pivotal state of Georgia.  From Fox: 

Georgia Republican Gov. Brian Kemp is maintaining his lead over Democratic gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams as incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., holds a narrow lead over GOP Senate nominee Herschel Walker in the state's Senate race, according to a new survey released by AARP.

The poll, which garnered responses from 1,197 likely Georgia voters and was conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, found Kemp leading Abrams by 7 percentage points in the Peach State's governor's race, with Kemp sitting at 52% support compared to Abrams's 45%.

With both gubernatorial candidates winning at least 95% of their party's voters in the poll, the survey also showed Kemp with a 14-point edge among likely independent voters. Voters age 65 and older who took part in the questionnaire also favored Kemp by 18 percentage points, with 74% of black voters age 50 and up favoring Abrams.

As for candidate imaging, 50% of those surveyed said they hold a favorable view of Kemp, while 46% said the same for Abrams. Among the independents who responded, 50% of likely voters viewed Kemp favorably compared to the 41% who said the same for Abrams.

As for the Georgia Senate race, Walker, the Republican nominee for Senate, trails Warnock by three percentage points. Fifty percent of the poll respondents favored Warnock, while 47% favored Walker. Among likely independent voters, Warnock holds a three-point lead over Walker, garnering 48% support compared to his GOP rival's 45%.

Respondents age 50 and older stated they prefer Walker over Warnock 52% to 46%, with voters 65 and older preferring Walker by eight percentage points. Eighty percent of black voters age 50 or older stated in the survey they prefer Warnock over Walker.

COMMENT:  Stacey Abrams must be defeated.  She's a delusional, egotistical Democratic candidate for governor, who makes no attempt to play down talk of her making a presidential run in 2024.  She lost the governorship election of 2018 by 50,000 votes, but claimed she actually won and should have been called "governor."  She did not win, and she certainly has no qualifications for the presidency.  We hope that Mr. Kemp drives her into early retirement. 

As for the Senate race, it should be an easy win for the GOP, but Herschel Walker, who was a great football player, is not a great candidate.  Raphael Warnock, a former minister and the incumbent, is a hard leftist who hardly represents the views of most Georgians.  Still, if Walker does not improve his performance, Warnock will keep his seat.  Both men are African-American.

July 14, 2022       Permalink