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JULY 14, 2022

CONCERN FOR THE GOP?  The president is in the Mideast.  We won't comment on his trip until it's over.  But one thing we couldn't help notice is that, as of this minute, Mr. Biden has risen six points in the Rasmussen poll from where he was last week at this time.

A fluke?  Maybe.  But that is quite a rise, and the Rasmussen poll is carefully done.  There is no need to panic, but some thought is required, especially as other polls are showing a tightening of the generic ballot for the midterm race, with four months to go until the election.  Some polls even show the Dems a few points ahead.

It is fairly common for a president's standing to go up slightly when he is on a foreign trip.  Instinctively, Americans want our head of state to succeed.  Also, the price of gasoline has gone down slightly in the last few weeks.  I pad $4.75 a gallon today, about 25 cents below recent prices.  It's not much of a drop, but some people may feel encouraged and are giving the president some credit.  Also, Mr. Biden's rise may reflect some backlash against recent Supreme Court decisions, although that is highly speculative.

Whatever the reasons for the new Biden bubble, we'll watch it.  It may disappear, especially when Mr. Biden hits the toughest part of his trip, dealing with the Saudis, who don't win any popularity contests here at home.  And the drop in gasoline prices are clearly offset by the ugly rise in the inflation rate.  Voters will feel that at the supermarket.

One thing must be noted, though, and that is the deep slumber of the Republican Party.   The polls overall still predict a GOP victory in November, and the Republican response seems to be to cuddle up in bed, sleep on the party's lead, and wait for the coronation on election night.  It's fairly typical of Republican history, as President Dewey might remind us.  The party is negative.  It only criticizes the Dems, which is a delight to do, but it has not presented any program of its own.  As we've written here, we need a new contract with America to wake things up, to show America how our side will govern, and address the pain of the American people.  I hope that contract is delivered, with fanfare, after Labor Day. 

Just for the information value, we do have some late polling done in the pivotal state of Georgia.  From Fox: 

Georgia Republican Gov. Brian Kemp is maintaining his lead over Democratic gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams as incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., holds a narrow lead over GOP Senate nominee Herschel Walker in the state's Senate race, according to a new survey released by AARP.

The poll, which garnered responses from 1,197 likely Georgia voters and was conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, found Kemp leading Abrams by 7 percentage points in the Peach State's governor's race, with Kemp sitting at 52% support compared to Abrams's 45%.

With both gubernatorial candidates winning at least 95% of their party's voters in the poll, the survey also showed Kemp with a 14-point edge among likely independent voters. Voters age 65 and older who took part in the questionnaire also favored Kemp by 18 percentage points, with 74% of black voters age 50 and up favoring Abrams.

As for candidate imaging, 50% of those surveyed said they hold a favorable view of Kemp, while 46% said the same for Abrams. Among the independents who responded, 50% of likely voters viewed Kemp favorably compared to the 41% who said the same for Abrams.

As for the Georgia Senate race, Walker, the Republican nominee for Senate, trails Warnock by three percentage points. Fifty percent of the poll respondents favored Warnock, while 47% favored Walker. Among likely independent voters, Warnock holds a three-point lead over Walker, garnering 48% support compared to his GOP rival's 45%.

Respondents age 50 and older stated they prefer Walker over Warnock 52% to 46%, with voters 65 and older preferring Walker by eight percentage points. Eighty percent of black voters age 50 or older stated in the survey they prefer Warnock over Walker.

COMMENT:  Stacey Abrams must be defeated.  She's a delusional, egotistical Democratic candidate for governor, who makes no attempt to play down talk of her making a presidential run in 2024.  She lost the governorship election of 2018 by 50,000 votes, but claimed she actually won and should have been called "governor."  She did not win, and she certainly has no qualifications for the presidency.  We hope that Mr. Kemp drives her into early retirement. 

As for the Senate race, it should be an easy win for the GOP, but Herschel Walker, who was a great football player, is not a great candidate.  Raphael Warnock, a former minister and the incumbent, is a hard leftist who hardly represents the views of most Georgians.  Still, if Walker does not improve his performance, Warnock will keep his seat.  Both men are African-American.

July 14, 2022       Permalink

JULY 13,  2022

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE:

WHAT A BUNCH OF DOPES:   From Fox:  The U.K. climate group whose members deflated tires on an estimated 40 vehicles in New York City last month recently announced similar actions in cities nationwide.  The Tyre Extinguishers, which encourages activists to deflate tires of parked sports utility vehicles (SUV) to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, said it has already spread to Chicago and the San Francisco area this month. Individuals affiliated with the group have deflated the tires of 20 SUVs in Chicago, another 20 SUVs in Scranton, Pa., and 12 SUVs near San Francisco this month, according to the group.  "It can happen anywhere, anytime," a spokesperson for the group told Fox News Digital in an email. "If you're reading this and you own an SUV, scrap it before we get to it."  The spokesperson previously told Fox News Digital that the group expected to "expand massively" across the U.S. in the coming weeks.  The group explained that it aims to take SUVs out of service because they are a "disaster for our health, our public safety and our climate."  "Bigger and bigger cars are dominating our towns and cities, and all so a privileged few can flaunt their wealth," the Tyre Extinguishers' website states. "Because governments and politicians have failed to protect us from this danger, we must protect ourselves."  On the site, the group provides tips for activists to quickly deflate tires and a leaflet that can be printed and left on targeted vehicles windshields. The document asks the victim to not "take it personally" that their tires were deflated.  Of course not.  I'd never take it personally.  Why, I'd thank these brave activists for saving me from the end of the world.  Everyone knows that SUVs were sent by Satan.  I saw it on MSNBC.

July 13, 2022       Permalink

THE INFLATION BALLOON:  The new inflation statistics are out, and they aren't good for the country, or the administration.  From CNBC:

Shoppers paid sharply higher prices for a variety of goods in June as inflation kept its hold on a slowing U.S. economy, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday.

The consumer price index, a broad measure of everyday goods and services related to the cost of living, soared 9.1% from a year ago, above the 8.8% Dow Jones estimate. That marked the fastest pace for inflation going back to November 1981.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core CPI increased 5.9%, compared with the 5.7% estimate. Core inflation peaked at 6.5% in March and has been nudging down since.

On a monthly basis, headline CPI rose 1.3% and core CPI was up 0.7%, compared to respective estimates of 1.1% and 0.5%.

Taken together, the numbers seemed to counter the narrative that inflation may be peaking, as the gains were based across a variety of categories.

"CPI delivered another shock, and as painful as June's higher number is, equally as bad is the broadening sources of inflation," said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. "Though CPI's spike is led by energy and food prices, which are largely global problems, prices continue to mount for domestic goods and services, from shelter to autos to apparel."

The inflation reading could push the Federal Reserve into an even more aggressive position.
Traders upped their bets on the pace of interest rate increases ahead. For the July 26-27 meeting, a full percentage point move now has a better than even chance of happening, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool as of 10:40 a.m. ET.

"U.S. inflation is above 9%, but it is the breadth of the price pressures that is really concerning for the Federal Reserve." said James Knightley, ING's chief international economist. "With supply conditions showing little sign of improvement the onus is the on the Fed to hit the brakes via higher rates to allow demand to better match supply conditions. The recession threat is rising."

Energy prices surged 7.5% on the month and were up 41.6% on a 12-month basis. The food index increased 1%, while shelter costs, which make up about one-third of the CPI rose 0.6% for the month and were up 5.6% annually. This was the sixth straight month that food at home rose at least 1%.

Rental costs rose 0.8% in June, the largest monthly increase since April 1986, according to the BLS.

Stocks mostly slumped following the data while government bond yields surged.
Much of the inflation rise came from gasoline prices, which increased 11.2% on the month and just shy of 60% for the 12-month period. Electricity costs rose 1.7% and 13.7%, respectively. New and used vehicle prices posted respective monthly gains of 0.7% and 1.6%.

Medical-care costs climbed 0.7% on the month, propelled by a 1.9% increase in dental services, the largest monthly rise ever recorded for that sector in data that goes back to 1995.

COMMENT:  Read the rest for the full picture.  Americans are going through increasingly tough times.  Will their pain be reflected in the November midterms?  Yes, but it's hard to predict by how much.  The Republican Party is not, right now, coming out with great ideas.  It is spending its time sniping at the president.  It will take more than that to create the Republican windstorm that our side is dreaming about for November.  We need a new contract with America, a list of exactly what Republicans plan to do for the people if elected in the midterms.  We can't just be naysayers.

July 13, 2022       Permalink