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FEBRUARY 23-24,  2022

2:30 A.M. ET:   Certain trends, possibly tentative ones, seem to be emerging as the war in Ukraine heats up. 

1.  We're losing.  There is a kind of resignation in the comments of knowledgeable people.  I've never seen it quite this way before.  The usual liberal cheering section in the press corps has essentially disappeared.  We are failing, Putin is playing President Biden like a second-hand violin.  Russian troops are advancing into Ukraine, yet no one seems willing to intervene to stop them.  We see a major, catastrophic defeat ahead.

2.  Biden's new sanctions are a joke.  I heard not one commentator who expressed any enthusiasm for them.  Not strong enough.  Not targeting Putin himself.  No confidence in Biden doing anything more effective.

3.  It could have been prevented.  Biden's ridiculous energy policies have taken this country from energy independence to dependence on foreign oil, some of that from Russia, if you can believe that!  His refusal to reverse those policies means Europe will still be buying energy from Russia rather than us, a catastrophic situation, and we may still need Russian oil and gas.  The feeling of humiliation is everywhere in the commentary.

4.  China is watching, and laughing.  China, our main adversary, is having the best of times.  Since Biden took office China has watched America humble itself, first by being chased out of Afghanistan after years of struggle, now by standing by like a dumb fool as a friendly nation is devoured by an economically weak Russia.  If China decided to take Taiwan, what could we actually do?

5. Biden is isolated.  Who wants to go near him?  The expected loss of Ukraine could be a death blow to the Democratic Party.  Its standard bearer, the president, is fading.  Its vice president has disappeared again.   There are rumors she's on a milk carton in Poland.  What Dem candidate would want either of those two to campaign for him or her?  I haven't heard clear talk about a new political party to replace the Dems, but I think we're getting close.  We are eight months away from the midterms.  What does the Democratic Party have for an argument?

We are an unhappy nation.  Ukraine reminds us of our weakness, and our mediocre government officials.  Coming after all the confusion about the pandemic, we didn't need this. We're looking for a psychological break, and we aren't finding one. 

3:05 P.M. ET:  President Biden spoke to the nation today.  At least that's what he tried to do.  The speech, in the midst of an international crisis, should have been delivered in the evening, from the Oval Office.  That's what real presidents do.  Americans who work can't watch an afternoon speech.

Biden's speech, perhaps the most important of his life, was widely anticipated.  A few days ago he announced a first set of sanctions – Sanctions Lite – on Russia for menacing Ukraine.  Most observers thought them laughably mild.  Greater toughness was expected today. 

Well, the president, as usual, fell below expectations.  He said all the right things about how bad Vladimir Putin is, what a raw, rude fellow he'd become.  But then the president rattled off, from a teleprompter, a pretty vague list of sanctions, admitting later that they would take some time to have effect.  But he assured us that he'd revisit them if they didn't work within a month.

Yawn.

Are we serious here?  The people of Ukraine are facing Russian tanks right now, not a month from now.  A month from now might well see the Russian flag flying all over Ukraine. 

Not a great performance from the president.  Most commentators expressed a kind of reserved dismay.  Where was the hammer?  Where were the hard blows?   The speech was all belly and no spine.  Tough words mean nothing unless they're accompanied by chilling actions.

Mr. Biden needed a home run, not a fly-ball single to left.

More on this later.

February 24, 2022       Permalink

THE SITUATION – OVERNIGHT:  All eyes on Ukraine.  No need to give you a blow-by-blow.  Urgent Agenda readers are well informed, and you know what's happened.   You're watching the same networks I am.

And so, first, a word about news coverage.  Ukraine may turn out to be the largest military clash in Europe since World War II.  It requires the best journalism.  I'm pleased to report that the TV journalism I'm seeing is awfully good.  I'm especially pleased to report that CNN, which has suffered under the now-dismissed Jeff Zucker, has performed ably.  Solid reporting, calmness in presentation, a good body of knowledge, and very few words about Donald Trump.  Maybe Zucker's departure has had a liberating effect. 

We've been tough on CNN here, but we always give credit where it's due.  I hope we continue to see in the future  the CNN we've seen in the last 24 hours.

Putin's invasion of Ukraine reminds us of a lesson we have to relearn over and over – that not everyone in the world thinks the way we do.  In World War II, many American naval officers could not understand the Japanese kamikaze – pilots trained to commit suicide as they crashed their planes into American warships.  Even Admiral Ernest King, the chief of naval operations, threw up his hands in bafflement.  No commander would send a pilot to commit suicide.

Well, the Japanese begged to disagree.  And now, today, we have a situation where we find it hard to understand a seemingly irrational act by the president of Russia, Vladimir Putin.  He delivered a message a few days ago that was right out of 19th-century international politics – that Russia, a great nation sold out during the Cold War, must be recognized for its greatness again, and that meant rebuilding the Soviet empire.  Was he serious?  I mean, ain't that stuff old-fashioned?  Yes, but not to Putin.  He feels no need to see the world in modern terms.  He hasn't "moved on," to use that tired cliché of the American left.  I would not be shocked, after he gobbles up Ukraine, and perhaps another country, to see him change Russia's name to something more grand.  During the Cold War it was called the USSR, the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.  I would expect to see something equally pompous.  To Putin, it would be final justice, and he would absorb the glory.  Hail Vlad, king of the empire.

Inevitably, as the fighting increases, commentators will get to the question of blame.  How did this happen?  How did we allow it to happen?  Putin, for some reason, believed that the United States was so weak that he could strike in Europe without fear of being defeated. 

The discussion of blame is proper...if it is allowed to be honest.  But if certain names are off limits because of political correctness, the discussion is useless, even dangerous.   Thus, we must insist that the role of President Barack Obama be thoroughly examined.  It was he who invited the Russians back into the Middle East.  It was he who allowed Putin to take Crimea.  It was he who ridiculed the notion that Russia was a major threat.  It was he who gave us Hillary Clinton and John Kerry as secretaries of state.  Decisions have consequences.

We continue to monitor.  Check back here later today.

February 24, 2022     Permalink

FEBRUARY 22,  2022

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – OVERNIGHT:

A NEW PROTEST – FROM BREITBART:  “Let Freedom Roll” is the slogan of “The People’s Convoy” set to roll Wednesday morning from Adelanto, California, on its way to Washington, DC, to protest federal coronavirus mandates and call for an end to President Joe Biden’s emergency declaration.  Convoy organizers Marcus Sommers and Maureen Steele spoke to Breitbart News about their “peaceful” transcontinental movement to “defend our freedom” at a time when “our freedom is on the line and tyranny closing in.”  “The freedom to choose is what our country is founded on, what our military has fought for, and died for, and bled for, and sacrificed everything,” Sommers, who has been a trucker for 34 years, told Breitbart News. “We must stand up, this is our duty. … I feel this is also a way, for myself personally, that I can fight for my country and its people.”  Democracy in action.  I hope people on both sides behave themselves.

February 22, 2022       Permalink

THE BOTTOM LINE – OVERNIGHT:  So much talking and speculating about the situation in the Ukraine.  Air time must be filled.  Newspapers must be stuffed.  War is in the air.

And yet, there is a sense that, this time, the war speculation may be accurate.  Putin is the chief officer of a major opponent.  We are not talking Korea or Vietnam or Iraq.  We have not confronted a major opponent since the war against Hitler, World War II.   We are watching day by day, aware that President Biden's pledge not to send troops into Ukraine could disappear in a second.  Developments from Fox: 

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Tuesday that there is every indication that Russia is planning a "full-scale attack" on Ukraine and urged Moscow to reverse course immediately.

"We urge Russia in the strongest possible terms to choose the path of diplomacy. This is the most dangerous moment in European security for a generation," Stoltenberg told reporters from Brussels. 

"Every indication is that Russia continues to plan for a full-scale attack on Ukraine," he warned.

The secretary-general’s comments come just one day after Russian President Vladimir Putin first announced his decision to recognize the independence of two Russian-backed breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, and then ordered "peacekeeping" troops into the Donbas region. 

Stoltenberg confirmed that NATO had "evidence" that Russian forces have already invaded Ukraine following Putin’s order. 

Over 150,000 troops have amassed along Ukraine’s border in Russia, Belarus as well as in occupied Crimea and Donbas. 

"Moscow has now moved from covert attempts to destabilize Ukraine to overt military action," the NATO chief said. "Many units are forward-deployed in combat formations. They are out of their camps in the field and ready to strike."

Stoltenberg applauded immediate moves by nations like Germany, the U.K. and the U.S. to target financial institutions tied to the Kremlin and said NATO will continue to help defend Ukraine by providing military equipment and "sustained financial support."

The U.S. and NATO have said they will not deploy forces to Kyiv to engage with Russia militarily as Ukraine is not a NATO member.

Member nations surrounding Ukraine like Romania and Poland have received military support as thousands of troops have been deployed from the U.S., U.K. and Baltic states to protect against any possible Russian aggression.

In answer to a reporter’s questions on mounting concerns that there will be a "full-on war" in Europe, Stoltenberg warned, "There is a real risk."

COMMENT:  It is easy for Washington to say that America will not put troops into Ukraine.  What happens if Russia attacks, and successfully destroys the Ukrainian army?  Will this country simply go home?  Or will we, the Americans, fight to save whatever is left of Ukraine?   That is the inescapable question.

February 22, 2022       Permalink