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FEBRUARY 11,  2022

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – OVERNIGHT:

OLYMPIC MESS – OVERNIGHT:  A scandal has erupted at the otherwise dull Olympics.  A Russian figure skater, regarded by some as the greatest figure skater in history, is involved in an alleged cheating incident.  How sad.  From Fox:  The International Testing Agency confirmed Friday that Russian figure skating sensation Kamila Valieva tested positive for a banned substance prior to her gold medal-winning performance in the team event over the weekend, but an expedited court ruling will now determine if the young skater will be allowed to compete for gold in the individual event on Tuesday.  The ITA, established by the International Olympic Committee in 2018 because of the Russian doping scandal at Sochi, released a lengthy statement on Friday confirming that the 15-year-old skater tested positive for trimetazidine at the 2022 Russian Figure Skating Championships in Saint Petersburg, Russia, on Dec. 25.  "First, the ITA stresses that Ms. Kamila Valieva, a member of the Russian Olympic Committee (ROC) delegation in Beijing, is a minor and therefore a ‘Protected Person’ under the World Anti-Doping Code," the statement read. "Seeing that some in the media did not grant her the same protection and have reported widely on the basis of unofficial information following the postponement of the medal ceremony of the figure skating Team Event at the Olympic Winter Games Beijing 2022, the ITA acknowledges the necessity for official information due to heightened public interest."  According to the ITA, the Russian Anti-Doping Agency placed a provisional suspension on Valieva Tuesday, but she appealed the decision the following day and the committee ruled to lift the suspension that night, seemingly without explanation.  The ITA, on behalf of the IOC, immediately challenged the decision, calling for an appeal before the Court of Arbitration for Sport, the highest court in Olympic sports, before Valieva’s next event.  One question is whether she took this drug on her own, or was forced to by the Russian powers.  I hate to see talent on her level destroyed, but the rules on doping must be followed, not only at the Olympics, but throughout sports.

February 11, 2022       Permalink

HOW CLOSE ARE WE? – OVERNIGHT:  The statements about Ukraine are grim, very grim.  We are on the brink of war.  Americans are being evacuated.  It is 1939.  We can't independently confirm that the dire talk is accurate.  But we can confirm that it is being taken seriously.  A recent briefing of members of Congress by the State Department left the listeners shaken.  The president has a phone talk scheduled with Putin.  We don't even know if it's last-minute negotiating, or stagecraft.  From AP: 

WASHINGTON — The United States is set to evacuate its embassy in Kyiv as Western intelligence officials warn that a Russian invasion of Ukraine is increasingly imminent.

US officials say the State Department plans to announce early Saturday that all American staff at the Kyiv embassy will be required to leave the country ahead of a feared Russian invasion. The State Department would not comment.

The department had earlier ordered families of US embassy staffers in Kyiv to leave. But it had left it to the discretion of nonessential personnel if they wanted to depart. The new move comes as Washington has ratcheted up its warnings about a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly, said a limited number of U.S. diplomats may be relocated to Ukraine’s far west, near the border with Poland, a NATO ally, so the US could retain a diplomatic presence in the country.

The Pentagon announced Friday it is sending another 3,000 combat troops to Poland to join 1,700 who already are assembling there in a demonstration of American commitment to NATO allies worried at the prospect of Russia invading Ukraine.

The additional soldiers will depart their post at Fort Bragg, North Carolina, over the next couple days and should be in Poland by early next week, according to a defense official, who provided the information under ground rules set by the Pentagon. They are the remaining elements of an infantry brigade of the 82nd Airborne Division.

Their mission will be to train and provide deterrence but not to engage in combat in Ukraine.

That announcement came shortly after Jake Sullivan, President Joe Biden’s national security adviser, issued a public warning for all American citizens in Ukraine to leave the country as soon as possible. Sullivan said Russian President Vladimir Putin could give the order to launch an invasion of Ukraine any day now.

COMMENT:   There are informed observers who doubt that Russia will invade.  After all, the cost to Moscow in human lives and potential sanctions could be enormous.

On the other hand, there are some who believe that Russia has nothing to lose by invading – that the United States is too weak to impose a heavy sanctions regime, that allies won't join us for fear of antagonizing Moscow, and that the American people will never permit our troops to be used in combat.  A win-win-win for Putin. 

I have no independent information.  It's wait-and-see, with human life on the line.

February 11,  2022     Permalink

FEBRUARY 10,  2022

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – OVERNIGHT:

MORE BAD NUMBERS FOR JOE – OVERNIGHT:  We watch, sometimes with amazement, as the main constituency of the Democratic Party, the minorities, start to float away.  The party's response has been remarkably subdued, as if this isn't possible.  From the Washington Times:   President Biden’s approval among Black Protestants and the religiously unaffiliated — the so-called nones — has fallen dramatically after a year in office, the Pew Research Center said Thursday.  The two groups “are among the Democratic Party’s most loyal constituencies,” Pew said in an online article reporting the results.  Black Protestant approval has fallen from 92% in March 2021 to 65% now in the most recent Pew survey. Only 41% of nones say the president is doing a good job, down from 71% last year.  The nones’ approval rating for Mr. Biden “is the lowest it has been since his inauguration,” and is 14 points below the September 2021 approval rating from 55% of the religiously unaffiliated.  The mid-January poll was conducted before the latest round of inflation news, which came out Thursday and noted consumer price increases at their highest level in 40 years.  Mr. Biden has also faced disappointment among supporters over an inability to get a $1.7 trillion social spending package through the Senate.   If this trend continues, it will be a lot more than Joe Biden going down the drain.  But Republicans shouldn't be overconfident.   Biden may be losing, but I've yet to see any great love for the GOP on the part of those leaving.  The Republicans must build a powerful and positive message.  "This is who we are, and this is what we'll do."  Newt Gingrich, as speaker, did it in 1994 with his Contract with America, and it worked. 

February 10, 2022       Permalink 

RE-RUN – OVERNIGHT:  We've noted Hillary Clinton's sudden activity before, but it's getting more and more obvious that she wants another shot at the presidency.  She may just get it.  She has powerful friends, and there's a sense that there's really no one else.  From Fox: 

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is slated to speak at the New York State Democratic Convention next week, according to sources who spoke to CNBC.

"She’s beloved by the mainstream members of the Democratic Party and her popularity is likely higher than that of President Biden," a person familiar with the arrangement told the outlet. "It’s good for her because it keeps her relevant, and her appearance is likely meant to galvanize the party and the audience."

Chris Melnyczuk, who is chief of staff to New York State Democratic Party chair Jay Jacobs, said the party "reached out to a number of people to speak and, you know, we’re waiting back on confirmation from a number of people. So there are a few things in the works."

"We’ve reached out to a number of folks, we’re not going to say who we’ve reached out to," he added regarding whether Clinton had been invited.

Clinton's rumored appearance comes amid speculation that the former New York senator could try for a political comeback amid plummeting poll numbers for President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.

Clinton has said she will not run for political office again, though two of her former allies recently published an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal describing "a perfect storm in the Democratic Party" that could prepare the way for Clinton to take another stab at the presidency.

According to the results of a Fox News survey released in January, more voters say they would back someone else over Biden in 2024 than ever said the same about former Presidents Obama and Trump.

COMMENT:  If the poll numbers go in the right direction, Hillary will run.  And Trump may run.  I can't think of another Democrat who could, right now, beat Hillary for the party nomination.  Tells you something about the Democratic Party, doesn't it?

Could Hillary win?  In 1968 the Republicans asked, "Can Nixon win?"   He did win, only to be brought down by Watergate after winning re-election in 1972.  No one can accurately predict if Clinton can bring home the prize next time.  But who else have they got?  Tom Brady isn't interested.

February 10,  2022      Permalink