William Katz:  Urgent Agenda

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THE TREND –WHERE THINGS STAND:  There are so many polls out there, and using them often turns out to be more of a game than real research.  But a new poll out today strikes me as very professional and well thought through.  Of course, I like the result as well.  From USA TODAY:

Republicans are resurgent as the midterm campaign heads into its final stretch, an exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll finds, amid angst about President Joe Biden's leadership and the nation's economy.

As Americans feel the bite of inflation in their daily lives, from eating out less often to canceling vacations, voters overwhelmingly view the election as a way to send a message to the White House – and by double digits, that message is to change course. 

On a generic ballot, one naming parties but not individual candidates, those surveyed now support the Republican congressional candidate over the Democratic one by 49%-45%, a turnaround since the USA TODAY poll taken in July, when Democrats led 44%-40%. The findings stoke GOP hopes of gaining control of the House of Representatives in the Nov. 8 elections, and with that, new powers to confront the Democratic White House.

And the Senate too.

Democratic congressional candidates have held their support since the summer, ticking up 1 percentage point, but most of the 16% of voters who were undecided then have now made up their minds and moved to the GOP. As early voting is opening in many states, just 6% remain undecided.

The poll of 1,000 likely voters, taken by landline and cellphone Oct. 19-24, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. The July poll was of registered voters.
The generic ballot is an imperfect way to predict how the elections will turn out. But the trend lines have proved valuable in signaling which party is gaining ground and which one is losing it.

COMMENT:   The poll was of likely voters, which usually produces a result somewhat more favorable to Republicans than a survey of registered voters.  Republicans are more likely to vote.

We are seeing the same trend nationwide, although the extent of it will not be clear until the actual ballots are in.  But Republicans right now should 1) feel pretty good and 2) resolve to fight to the max right up to the closing day of the campaign.  Never let down.

October 27, 2022