William Katz:  Urgent Agenda

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WHAT HAPPENED? – AT 7:56 A.M. ET:  Like everyone else, I'd like to know how the election wound up where it did.  I have thus conducted a thorough investigation worthy of Holmes and Watson, and have come to the following conclusion:

I have no idea.

The usual suspects are out there filling air time and newspaper space, but the election count isn't even over.  The polling hasn't been analyzed.   We really don't accurately know what groups voted, and in how great a number. 

My advice:  We should all calm down.  My first impression is that much of the actual, published polling came reasonably close to the final result, but that something happened in the last three weeks to give our side the illusion that a red wave was truly coming.  What was that "something"?  That is the key question.  I suspect that the final answer will involve the super-hype provided by some specialized polling that showed a major shift rightward by American women.  Polls also showed a "surge" toward the GOP in the governor's race in New York.  New York is where much of the news media is based.  What happens in New York politics is disproportionately represented in political reporting.  Hey, if it happens here, it must be happening everywhere. 

(In the future, let us understand that a "surge" is only significant if it ultimately puts a candidate in the lead position.  There is no prize, in politics, for second place.  It ain't the Olympics, where you can take home a silver medal.)

Also, the very visible Trafalgar poll, known as a "Republican" poll because it usually seems to show Republican candidates with better numbers than other polls, played a part.  Its polling was highly publicized, and its claim that Republicans were usually underpolled was convincing.  Thus, people on our side started believing that there was some "hidden" Republican vote.

It will be sorted out by historians and pundits.  But right now, I'm more concerned by what will happen four days from now in Mar-a-Lago, when former President Trump will make a major announcement.

I hope he thinks about it carefully, and applies some common sense.

November 10-11, 2022