William Katz:  Urgent Agenda

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MIDTERM LATEST:  Only days to go until Tuesday's midterms.  We follow the RealClearPolitics (RCP) averages every day, about the best source out there for current election statistics.  They study a number of polls to come up with their reports.

Current RCP estimates for the House:  174 Democrats, 228 Republicans, 33 toss-ups.  The Republican gain, RCP projects, will be between 15 and 48 seats, with an average gain of 31-32.  (A House majority is currently 218 votes.)

Current RCP estimates for the US Senate:  44 Democrats, 48 Republicans, 8 toss-ups.    (A Senate majority is 51 votes.) Projected GOP gain is 4 seats, resulting in a Senate of 54 Republicans and 46 Democrats.

We stress that these are projections based on current polling.

One of the most watched races is not for Congress but for the governorship of New York, my state, which, for some reason, remains politically significant, despite the fact that large numbers of people here have problems finding their birth certificates.  New York is in terrible shape, with more people leaving than arriving.  We are governed by Kathy Hochul, whom no one ever heard of before she, as lieutenant governor, became governor when Andrew Cuomo was forced out of the job by scandals. 

The general belief in politics is that New York is a permanent blue state, and that no Republicans need apply.   Indeed, Minimum Governor Hochul actually invited Republicans to leave New York and move to Florida.  The dynamic Republican Party here puts up candidates who write their concession speeches before the elections are held. 

But conditions are bad, and in walked Republican Congressman Lee Zeldin to run for the governorship, and actually try to win it.  Other local Republicans gasped in shock.   No one gave Zeldin a chance.  But Zeldin is a tireless campaigner, and now is within single-digit range of the sitting Hochul.  The odds are still against him, and only one poll shows Zeldin with any kind of lead.  But you never know.  Real enthusiasm shows up on election day.  We are hoping.   

November 5-6, 2022