William Katz:  Urgent Agenda

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CONCERN FOR THE GOP?  The president is in the Mideast.  We won't comment on his trip until it's over.  But one thing we couldn't help notice is that, as of this minute, Mr. Biden has risen six points in the Rasmussen poll from where he was last week at this time.

A fluke?  Maybe.  But that is quite a rise, and the Rasmussen poll is carefully done.  There is no need to panic, but some thought is required, especially as other polls are showing a tightening of the generic ballot for the midterm race, with four months to go until the election.  Some polls even show the Dems a few points ahead.

It is fairly common for a president's standing to go up slightly when he is on a foreign trip.  Instinctively, Americans want our head of state to succeed.  Also, the price of gasoline has gone down slightly in the last few weeks.  I pad $4.75 a gallon today, about 25 cents below recent prices.  It's not much of a drop, but some people may feel encouraged and are giving the president some credit.  Also, Mr. Biden's rise may reflect some backlash against recent Supreme Court decisions, although that is highly speculative.

Whatever the reasons for the new Biden bubble, we'll watch it.  It may disappear, especially when Mr. Biden hits the toughest part of his trip, dealing with the Saudis, who don't win any popularity contests here at home.  And the drop in gasoline prices are clearly offset by the ugly rise in the inflation rate.  Voters will feel that at the supermarket.

One thing must be noted, though, and that is the deep slumber of the Republican Party.   The polls overall still predict a GOP victory in November, and the Republican response seems to be to cuddle up in bed, sleep on the party's lead, and wait for the coronation on election night.  It's fairly typical of Republican history, as President Dewey might remind us.  The party is negative.  It only criticizes the Dems, which is a delight to do, but it has not presented any program of its own.  As we've written here, we need a new contract with America to wake things up, to show America how our side will govern, and address the pain of the American people.  I hope that contract is delivered, with fanfare, after Labor Day. 

Just for the information value, we do have some late polling done in the pivotal state of Georgia.  From Fox: 

Georgia Republican Gov. Brian Kemp is maintaining his lead over Democratic gubernatorial nominee Stacey Abrams as incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga., holds a narrow lead over GOP Senate nominee Herschel Walker in the state's Senate race, according to a new survey released by AARP.

The poll, which garnered responses from 1,197 likely Georgia voters and was conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research, found Kemp leading Abrams by 7 percentage points in the Peach State's governor's race, with Kemp sitting at 52% support compared to Abrams's 45%.

With both gubernatorial candidates winning at least 95% of their party's voters in the poll, the survey also showed Kemp with a 14-point edge among likely independent voters. Voters age 65 and older who took part in the questionnaire also favored Kemp by 18 percentage points, with 74% of black voters age 50 and up favoring Abrams.

As for candidate imaging, 50% of those surveyed said they hold a favorable view of Kemp, while 46% said the same for Abrams. Among the independents who responded, 50% of likely voters viewed Kemp favorably compared to the 41% who said the same for Abrams.

As for the Georgia Senate race, Walker, the Republican nominee for Senate, trails Warnock by three percentage points. Fifty percent of the poll respondents favored Warnock, while 47% favored Walker. Among likely independent voters, Warnock holds a three-point lead over Walker, garnering 48% support compared to his GOP rival's 45%.

Respondents age 50 and older stated they prefer Walker over Warnock 52% to 46%, with voters 65 and older preferring Walker by eight percentage points. Eighty percent of black voters age 50 or older stated in the survey they prefer Warnock over Walker.

COMMENT:  Stacey Abrams must be defeated.  She's a delusional, egotistical Democratic candidate for governor, who makes no attempt to play down talk of her making a presidential run in 2024.  She lost the governorship election of 2018 by 50,000 votes, but claimed she actually won and should have been called "governor."  She did not win, and she certainly has no qualifications for the presidency.  We hope that Mr. Kemp drives her into early retirement. 

As for the Senate race, it should be an easy win for the GOP, but Herschel Walker, who was a great football player, is not a great candidate.  Raphael Warnock, a former minister and the incumbent, is a hard leftist who hardly represents the views of most Georgians.  Still, if Walker does not improve his performance, Warnock will keep his seat.  Both men are African-American.

July 14, 2022