William Katz:  Urgent Agenda

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HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO A WAR OVER UKRAINE? – OVERNIGHT:   The tensions are growing, Kamala Harris is learning that Ukraine isn't a type of building equipment, and people are worried.   So what's happening?  From Fox: 

Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley told lawmakers that Kyiv could fall within 72 hours if a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine takes place, multiple congressional sources tell Fox News.

Milley told lawmakers during closed-door briefings on Feb. 2 and 3 that a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine could result in the fall of Kyiv within 72-hours, and could come at a cost of 15,000 Ukrainian troop deaths and 4,000 Russian troop deaths.

Several lawmakers expressed concern that the Biden administration did not respond quickly to provide Ukraine with significant military aid, such as anti-aircraft and rocket launcher systems that would defend against an invasion from Russia.

Biden administration officials at the meetings responded to these concerns by saying that a significant supply of military aid to Ukraine could be used as a reason to invade Ukraine.
While Ukraine is receiving security assistance from the United States from a $200 million allocation made in December, it is also receiving $600 million in assistance from the United Kingdom and Baltic states, which the country is depending heavily upon and includes anti-tank Javelin missiles and older-version Stinger portable anti-aircraft missiles…

…The United States is also working to make preparations for a significant refugee and migrant crisis, one person familiar with the planning said. European allies are also leading discussions on housing and migrant flows under the assumption that Ukrainian nationals would flee to other portions of Europe.

COMMENT:  Not all are on board with the narrative that a Russian invasion is imminent.  No one actually knows.  The central idea here is not whether we love Ukraine or feel any obligation to that country.  The central idea is that a successful Russian invasion would destroy the whole principle of deterrence, which allowed us to win the Cold War without an enduring conflict.   Appeasement has its costs, which can be very bitter.

February 5,  2022