William Katz:  Urgent Agenda

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THE BEACHES OF FLORIDA ARE FRIENDLY TOWARD THE GOP – OVERNIGHT:  We stress, as we have before, that the miderms are far away – about nine months from now – and that today's trends may be battered and bruised by then.  But it is such fun to look at numbers that are so juicy.  From redstate: 

To the extent that Democrats haven’t fully conceded Florida going into the November election, the latest polling out of the state may represent a breaking point.

Suffolk University/USA Today released what I believe is the first credible, non-partisan survey of the races going on there, and the results are fire and brimstone for the Democrats involved. Gov. Ron DeSantis holds a commanding lead over both of his likely opponents, including Nikki Fried, who is fresh off trying to accuse the governor of not condemning white supremacy.

On the Senate front, Sen. Marco Rubio is trouncing Rep. Val Demmings, who was framed as a strong candidate when she announced.
49-41 Rubio over Demings
49-43 DeSantis over Crist; 51-40 DeSantis over Fried
Biden approval: 39%

For all the consternation from the national press over DeSantis’s tenure, he continues to draw broad support in a state that is not known for giving it. Recall that in 2018, DeSantis won his race over Andrew Gillum by less than half a percentage point. Now, he’s consistently beating Charlie Crist and Nikki Fried in hypothetical matchups by what are blowout numbers in a political context.

Rubio’s performance is perhaps most impressive, though. Demmings has always been painted as a “serious” Democrat with a mind towards fairness. Yet, she’s not even competitive at this point.

That begs the question of why she’s even running? She was set up in the House of Representatives for a long career, including probably a leadership position. But if she loses to Rubio, and it’s almost certain she does, that all goes away. Perhaps overconfidence got the best of her and those encouraging her to run?

As to Joe Biden, his approval in the Sunshine State sits at just 39%. If that number holds — and there’s no reason to believe it will rise substantially over the next nine months — he will drag a lot of Democrats down just as Barack Obama did in 2010.

COMMENT:  Overconfidence is the curse.  Republicans must run as if they're 20 points behind.  And they must keep an absolute eagle eye on voter fraud, which is a specialty of big-city Democratic machines.  I'm hoping that if we fight well, we'll be looking at a Republican Congress – both houses – a year from now.

February 1,  2022